autumn Autumn 2016

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just wondering the earliest date when snow becomes possible? (low levels south) Varies I know, high elevations/north will be earlier

say the 30th Nov '10 snow, if that was just 2 weeks earlier would it be sleet/rain?

0r the 19th Nov '96 snow, just a week earlier sleet/rain?

if what ECM is showing now, of course would be rain but just a week later sleet? 2 weeks later snow? time of year by maybe just 14 days too early for the south here

Edited November 3, 2016 by I remember Atlantic 252

[Summer Sun]

Cold air to last most of next week?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37867805

[stainesbloke]

15 hours ago, markyo said:

Old fashioned bonfire night coming up,first for many years,will make a change to get nearer the bonfire to keep warm!! Will bring back childhood memories for a few i suspect.

Certainly will, I remember some very chilly Bonfire Nights when I was growing up with frost and mists. Nice to get that again after so many windy rainy ones!

[cheese]

Yes, good riddance to rain and wind. There was a bonfire night recently though that was cold and frosty - and I remember all of the smoke from the fireworks hanging around like mist.

Edited November 3, 2016 by cheese

[moorlander]

For the past 13 years i have been going to a show in Telford that always falls on the rememberance weekend.

There has only been two years out of that time period that have been cold.

The last and best of those two was over 6 years ago when the temp was reading -7 when i left home

[Walsall Wood Snow]

2 hours ago, cheese said:

2 hours ago, cheese said:

Yes, good riddance to rain and wind. There was a bonfire night recently though that was cold and frosty - and I remember all of the smoke from the fireworks hanging around like mist.

You're probably thinking of Bonfire Night in 2012. That was the last cold one I remember with a bit of a ground frost that night. I remember frost forming on car roofs, along the road to the display I went to that year. I'm not sure whether an air frost developed later that night, into the next morning, but it was defiantly a cold night that year. It was also the Bonfire Night preceding our most recent cold Winter of 2012/13, so perhaps a good sign that this coming Bonfire Night is predicted to be cold.

[cheese]

3 hours ago, Walsall Wood Snow said:

 

You might be right ,we had a low of -2C on Bonfire Night 2012.

[markyo]

7 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Certainly will, I remember some very chilly Bonfire Nights when I was growing up with frost and mists. Nice to get that again after so many windy rainy ones!

Yep a old time Bonfire Night at last,way to many in the last few years have been ruined by the Atlantic crap. Could be the first proper cold one for many children.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

models 00Z's trended towards GFS from around 9th, with Atlantic domination, sort of setup you'd expect in Dec to Feb, but with it being early Nov and snow not really possible, I wouldn't be surprised if ECM of yesterday was right, I don't expect the Atlantic to dominate until around 21st Nov

watch 12Z's flip

[Polar Maritime]

A covering over 600m on Nevis range this morning. Temp -2c

[NorthernRab]

Widespread snow in the Highlands now, snow forecast to reach lower levels of around 150m-250m by Sunday.

 

 

Edited November 4, 2016 by NorthernRab

[damianslaw]

First proper cold shot of the season expected Sunday into Monday with sub 528 dam air covering much of Scotland and far north of England - snow down to modest levels I suspect.

November is typically the most unlikely month to deliver settled conditions, the temp gradient over the N Atlantic becomes very acute helping to fuel the jetstream, and the continent is still only slowly cooling, its not until the end of the month when higher pressure over the continent tends to have the ability to develop cold dense air and become a stubborn robust feature. Show me an early-mid November dominated by settled conditions with little rain, very few examples I suspect.

Going forward, certainly looking like a very seasonal first half to November, lots of frost, possible fog, wintry conditions on higher ground, some spells of cold rain, and chilly winds but some milder conditions surfacing for a time at least - all very typical stuff, its just that most recent Novembers have been dominated by very mild wet spells early-mid month, 2008, 2010 and 2012 though were more changeable in condition. 

Autumn colours are fantastic at the moment, get out this weekend and make the most of them, they will be gone soon.

[Weather-history]

Showery day with a little bit of hail

 

[Summer Sun]

Early next week

Cold and frosty

Later next week

Cold pushed aside

Milder west winds

Rain at times

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37880283

[I remember Atlantic 252]

certainly as an Atlantic air believer, I fully expect our first named storm of season from 14th Nov, 1st one of many

[markyo]

Atlantic may we waking up but that was to be expected,anybody expecting blocking to remain in place longer than it has must know that. But i must say the conveyor belt that usually is associated with storms over the last few years is totally absent. Was at a call at a Equine Vets above Settle yesterday,came out to a surprising blanket(slight i admit) of snow,it's been a good 10 to 12yr since I've seen that at this time of year,ok i was in the right place for snow anyway but the pointers and feel of this winter are still good,fingers crossed we may actually get a Winter this year!!.......may have to even put my heating on at this rate!

[MP-R]

5 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

certainly as an Atlantic air believer, I fully expect our first named storm of season from 14th Nov, 1st one of many

That would certainly bring a lot of leaves down, and feel cold too with winds veering increasingly northwesterly. Would certainly be unusual not to get the first named storm by mid November. November to mid-December I'd expect to see the closest succession of storms as per last year. Barney was an absolute trooper on the 17th last year!

[Summer Sun]

This is what weather online issued on October 17th for 6/11/16 - 12/11/16

The week may start chilly and dry for most. However, a westerly flow is expected to develop as the week progresses, so becoming more unsettled. A risk of snow showers in Scotland with rain bands passing east. Turning drier in the south later.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/weather/reports/month-ahead.htm

Edited November 5, 2016 by Summer Sun

[summer blizzard]

On 11/4/2016 at 07:29, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

models 00Z's trended towards GFS from around 9th, with Atlantic domination, sort of setup you'd expect in Dec to Feb, but with it being early Nov and snow not really possible, I wouldn't be surprised if ECM of yesterday was right, I don't expect the Atlantic to dominate until around 21st Nov

watch 12Z's flip

Although i'm normally one to urge caution (though i do get a bit giddy in the days proceeding a snow event) the indicators i believe are pointing towards the final third of the month producing the best -AO response (ergo probably the most anomalous cold) and given the state of the stratosphere i'd not count out early December.

It's hard to put into words just how impressive things look at the moment in my opinion. 

Moral of the story - The final third will be closer to 2005 and 2010 than 2011.

[damianslaw]

Tuesday could deliver a surprise snowfall to relatively low regions over far north of England and much of Scotland away from coastal western areas and fringes. The models are increasingly showing a slow moving frontal feature thanks to the power of scandi heights, given there will be a very cold pool of air ahead of the front, there is a significant chance modest levels say 300m + could see a hefty dose of snow through Tuesday. On higher ground an appreciable fall looks highly likely. Evaporative cooling most likely will come into play, a month on and we'd be looking at a widespread significant snowfall for most northern parts- a classic battleground scenario.

 

[Matthew.]

Really enjoyed being out in that bracing Polar wind today-Natures way of replenishing 'the mind and soul'.

[J10]

Looking at Met Office records, October was the driest month of the year for most regions of the UK.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2016/october/regional-values

How unusual is it for October to be the driest month in the UK and when was the last time it happened?

[Summer Sun]

Becoming milder by Thursday then an alternating pattern of some cooler days and some milder days

http://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/features/37883920

[markyo]

Lovely early morning Autumnal weather,brisk fresh clean northern air just makes it feel and smell so much better. The pattern is not really changed,nothing at all to suggest a prolonged Atlantic outbreak,long may it continue.......even had to can the shorts for this mornings walk,unheard of this early in the season!!!

[ManiaMuse]

Bonfire night had very pleasant weather for a change where I was.

Chilly but not freezing. Clear skies, no rain. Not too breezy. Field was completely dry, no mud at all which just reflects how dry this Autumn has been I suppose.