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Convective Storm/Discussion thread - 16/07/16 onwards

Supacell

By Supacell
in Storms & Severe Weather

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Hi Dave,

Would say you're not in the best place, but as we all know Essex is one of the thunderstorm hotspots in Southern England so you have a chance, to be honest, most activity currently seems to be reserved for Cornwall and Devon northwards.

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stainesbloke Maestro

stainesbloke

Posted
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in summer, thunderstorms, snow, fog, frost, squall lines
  • Location: Nymburk, Czech Republic and Staines, UK
Posted

I'm off to the Isle of Wight Tue-Thu so am hoping to see something there. The westwards corrections are encouraging as it means the heat/sunshine may hang on a bit longer...

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted
23 minutes ago, claret047 said:

Hi,

From a IMBY perspective here in Mid Essex, we have had more thunderstorms, or days I have heard thunder this year than I can recall for at least the last 5 years.

It is strange that there can be such differences within what is a relatively small country.

What are your thoughts on the southeast/East Anglia experiencing any thundery activity this coming week? to my untrained eye it does not appear to be too hopeful, with the main activity now thought to be further west than my location.

Kind Regards

Dave

Agree, Dave - I've experienced 11 thunder days so far this year which is above average for sure.

My gut tells me at the moment not to take charts too literally as it seems to be a very unpredictable period coming up. There is a lot of uncertainty regarding the broader synoptics let alone the finer detail (eg. pre-frontal troughs and CZs) . For example, my iPhone app is now suggesting another round of 30C+ heat for Wednesday with temps still persisting in the high 20s through Thursday.

 

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A.J Maestro

A.J

Posted
  • Location: Sunderland
  • Weather Preferences: Hot Summer, Snowy winter and thunderstorms all year round!
  • Location: Sunderland
Posted
4 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

It will shift east and end up over the midlands and down through the spine of the country - you just watch!

I will be an extremely happy chappy if that comes off! :D

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted
6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

GFS 0z seems to have coloured the Irish Sea in with green crayon.....seriously though, this model run couldn't have placed that precipitation more accurately to cover the Irish Sea and IOM. Almost like the precipitation moulds around the sea/land boundary 

ukprec.png

Soon after, Scotland cops it

ukprec.png

 

 Well I'm camping in Holyhead on Tuesday night  so I expect it's a win-win for me. Looking forward to it. If you don't hear from me again you know what's happened lol. 

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Convective Community Regular

Convective

Posted
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Warm summers, cold winters.. How it should be!
  • Location: Douglas, Isle of Man - 380ft/116m ASL
Posted
6 hours ago, CreweCold said:

GFS 0z seems to have coloured the Irish Sea in with green crayon.....seriously though, this model run couldn't have placed that precipitation more accurately to cover the Irish Sea and IOM. Almost like the precipitation moulds around the sea/land boundary 

ukprec.png

Soon after, Scotland cops it

ukprec.png

 

Lovely.

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Spikecollie Accomplished

Spikecollie

Posted
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
  • Weather Preferences: Warm and sunny with night time t-storms
  • Location: Haute Vienne, Limousin, France (404m ASL)
Posted
22 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Well I'm camping in Holyhead on Tuesday night  so I expect it's a win-win for me. Looking forward to it. If you don't hear from me again you know what's happened lol. 

Ooohhh! I love thunderstorms when you're in a tent...

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Staffordshire Aficionado

Staffordshire

Posted
  • Location: Lichfield
  • Location: Lichfield
Posted

Somewhere in the UK should get a very, very nice storm between Tuesday-Wednesday looking st the output... Just hoping I can get at least my first strike/rumble of the summer, surley an MCS couldn't skirt round me and only hit the surrounding towns as opposed to more single cell storms... I live in hope

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

I really hope there's a slight eastward shift. I think everyone from the southern tip of Devon all the way up to Cumbria would love an MCS, hey?! :D

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East_England_Stormchaser91 Veteran

East_England_Stormchaser91

Posted
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Hot and Thundery, Cold and Snowy
  • Location: King’s Lynn, Norfolk.
Posted

looking at the 500hpa winds which is the steering winds for storms, it seems that they would have a more NE track as opposed to N? 

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Author
Posted (edited)
7 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

I really hope there's a slight eastward shift. I think everyone from the southern tip of Devon all the way up to Cumbria would love an MCS, hey?! :D

The southern tip of Devon to Cumbria would only graze the western extent of the UK mainland. I think most would prefer a bit more of an eastward shift than that so the entire UK could be affected. Of course, the weather will do what it will do and most of the current models do show many areas to the south and east of a line from around Bristol to Newcastle staying dry with the strong ridge suppressing convection despite high dewpoints and temperatures in the low thirties! 

Edit: That is not a prediction by me it is just what is currently being shown. The reality will most likely be different.  

Edited by Supacell
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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

@Supacell, luckily we had some good thunderstorms last month so I won't be too down if we don't get anything, if we had this weather for a month I'd be happy. :D

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Supacell Accomplished

Supacell

Posted
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Belper, Derbyshire
  • Author
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

@Supacell, luckily we had some good thunderstorms last month so I won't be too down if we don't get anything, if we had this weather for a month I'd be happy. :D

Yes I would be happy too. A Florida like climate in the UK would suit me fine, provided we had air conditioning in our houses. 

I have seen numerous thunderstorms but Derby has missed out so far this year. I think my area will miss out again this time also, if I want to see a storm I will probably have to spend Tuesday night and Wednesday near the west coast.

Edited by Supacell
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Delka Community Regular

Delka

Posted
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
  • Location: Wellingborough, Northamptonshire
Posted

What are the chances of Norfolk catching any thunder this week? It's been lovely here this weekend, and todays even had unbroken blue skies so far, only thing I really wish for is a big thunderstorm to end a nice little heatwave!

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Chris.R Maestro

Chris.R

Posted
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
  • Weather Preferences: Winter - snow, Irish sea convection. Summer - thunderstorms, hot sunny days
  • Location: Pemberton, Wigan, 54 M ASL. 53.53,-2.67
Posted

 Looks like the further west you are the better on this occasion, so I'm very glad  that I'm relocating 60 miles west on Tuesday morning. 

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weather09 Aficionado

weather09

Posted
  • Location: Birmingham
  • Location: Birmingham
Posted
14 minutes ago, East_England_Stormchaser91 said:

looking at the 500hpa winds which is the steering winds for storms, it seems that they would have a more NE track as opposed to N? 

ECM currently has a more NE steer to the mid-level flow; UKM and GFS more NNE'erly to N'erly.  Why the ECM is modeling storms pushing right over the Midlands during the morning whereas the other two have much of the activity over the far W, perhaps nudging into W Mids, before all heads north to NW England and into Scotland.  So relatively small discrepancies in upper pattern, which is to be expected, but will cause large differences to where storms develop and where they'll track. 

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted

Back to this afternoon... Despite generally overcast skies is there still a reasonable chance of sea breeze convergence in the far south setting off some isolated storms?

what sort of time is this likely to be?

(I suspect around 4/5pm onwards but I'm no expert - was hoping for someone more qualified to supply the science bit...)

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted
15 minutes ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

Back to this afternoon... Despite generally overcast skies is there still a reasonable chance of sea breeze convergence in the far south setting off some isolated storms?

what sort of time is this likely to be?

(I suspect around 4/5pm onwards but I'm no expert - was hoping for someone more qualified to supply the science bit...)

Yeah that's something I agree with about 4/5pm, especially judging by Netwx SR precip charts. My opinion feels kent might catch an isolated storm for my favoured location.

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Harry Accomplished

Harry

Posted
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms
  • Location: Bexley (home), C London (work)
Posted

People hoping for an eastward shift....certainly a novel concept 

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William Grimsley Seasoned

William Grimsley

Posted
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms, Snow, High Winds.
  • Location: Newton Poppleford, Devon, UK
Posted

Well, looks like these isolated thunderstorms never occured. Pffft.:rofl:

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, William Grimsley said:

Well, looks like these isolated thunderstorms never occured. Pffft.:rofl:

It's 5:30, we have 2 more hours+ of dirnual heating warm moist air...

Edited by Ben Sainsbury
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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted

Definite eastward shift on the current run, we see the warmth move through quicker during Wednesday, the mass of thunderstorms during tuesday night clipping more SW England and West Wales.

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Flash bang flash bang etc Veteran

Flash bang flash bang etc

Posted
  • Location: Godalming
  • Weather Preferences: Plumes and streamers
  • Location: Godalming
Posted
24 minutes ago, Ben Sainsbury said:

It's 5:30, we have 2 more hours+ of dirnual heating warm moist air...

I really hopes so!

what sort of CAPE values are we looking at tonight?

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Ben Sainsbury Accomplished

Ben Sainsbury

Posted
  • Location: Bristol
  • Weather Preferences: Thunderstorms and Snowstorms
  • Location: Bristol
Posted
1 minute ago, Flash bang flash bang etc said:

I really hopes so!

what sort of CAPE values are we looking at tonight?

800-900J/kg or so...

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