South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 1st September 2016 onwards

[Mark wheeler]

A pleasant start to the day and I've had to take my jumper off. The rest of the week does not look to bad until Saturday with today being the best of the bunch. Enjoy peeps .

[alexisj9]

Very nice day today, only got up to 19.4 so far but very comfortable T'shirt type day. Not a cloud in the sky here.

[lassie23]

It's quite warm today, when will the first autumn chill arrive not getting below 15c at night so far.

[Ǝssex Ǝasterly]

6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

It's quite warm today, when will the first autumn chill arrive not getting below 15c at night so far.

Had a 10.4c low here on the 11th

[lassie23]

Just now, Essex Easterly said:

Had a 10.4c low here on the 11th

That's approaching a frost

[stainesbloke]

1 hour ago, lassie23 said:

It's quite warm today, when will the first autumn chill arrive not getting below 15c at night so far.

Very pleasant. It's only September. Autumn generally arrives in October

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, stainesbloke said:

Very pleasant. It's only September. Autumn generally arrives in October

or january if you live down south

[stainesbloke]

9 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

or january if you live down south

If this morning's GFS is to go by then Autumn will be roaring in next week with low after low barrelling in. Hope it's wrong!

[Mark wheeler]

The commute home is actually quite uncomfortable and hot .feels much closer than I expected but I'd rather this to wind and rain . 

[Dami]

Ho hum, so. I get a note in bubs planner stating that PE has started and as they plan to do it outside, we need to now have 'The winter PE kit' ie tracksuit.  Trouble is the uniform page on the School web site doesn't work and the supplier of all things uniform website doesn't exist now either. Ho hum, at least it's not that cold yet.

That's the thing, I'm expecting quite cool, misty mornings at least and even for me it was mild in a T-shirt and the old faithful cardie. However I'm not shocked by this. A year after bubs was born, I can remember heading out for a September walk wearing a jumper and no coat and sweating buckets - ended up the next day in shorts.

Bring on a winter like 2010 and i'll be happy, the woolly hat is ready and waiting.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Morning,

I see the model junkies have started their cold hunt.. Some of them getting a little bit to attached to it. At so far out things change and I'm still going for a wet and mild October, but currently October starts cool.

The actually pattern for the weather in the week ahead looks boring and normal. With low pressure sliding north West and we are left with crappy cloud and decaying weather fronts (today and Sunday an example) 

Be interesting once we get through October what happens next, but for now it's a bit of a bor fest 

 

[alexisj9]

3 hours ago, Surrey said:

Morning,

I see the model junkies have started their cold hunt.. Some of them getting a little bit to attached to it. At so far out things change and I'm still going for a wet and mild October, but currently October starts cool.

The actually pattern for the weather in the week ahead looks boring and normal. With low pressure sliding north West and we are left with crappy cloud and decaying weather fronts (today and Sunday an example) 

Be interesting once we get through October what happens next, but for now it's a bit of a bor fest 

 

If they are right though I'm more worried about Siberia than here, cause my 16 year old will be there in late November early December. She knows it's gonna be cold, however I'm not sure she's expecting extra cold lol. I'm not really sure how she'll cope with something like -40. Anyway she'll have plenty of layer she can put on, and take off as appropriate so unless she an idiot she'll be fine.

[Blessed Weather]

17 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

If this morning's GFS is to go by then Autumn will be roaring in next week with low after low barrelling in. Hope it's wrong!

I'm quoting you from your post yesterday morning @stainesbloke but this morning's GFS & ECM runs are sticking to the same story, suggesting the first low to have a notable impact will be next Wednesday. Both models show ex-tropical storm Karl with its warm moist air getting tangled up with the Jet Stream resulting in a vigorous LP north of Scotland. It'll be a warm windy day for us on Weds, but as the low moves off and the winds take on a NW'ly direction, Thurs turns into a chilly day with a strong wind blowing down the North Sea coast. Usual caution needed - Karl might decide on a different track - but at least there's something of interest for us to watch develop over the coming days.

SLP Weds ECM  GFS

 

850 hPa Thurs ECM  GFS

[Daniel*]

It was quite the spectacle. 

 

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Interesting GFS 06Z removes the cold completely and replaces it with some warmth.. High pressure dominated to the south over us with more in the way of wind and rain further north 

[lassie23]

Had 10 minutes of heavy rain

[stainesbloke]

5 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

I'm quoting you from your post yesterday morning @stainesbloke but this morning's GFS & ECM runs are sticking to the same story, suggesting the first low to have a notable impact will be next Wednesday. Both models show ex-tropical storm Karl with its warm moist air getting tangled up with the Jet Stream resulting in a vigorous LP north of Scotland. It'll be a warm windy day for us on Weds, but as the low moves off and the winds take on a NW'ly direction, Thurs turns into a chilly day with a strong wind blowing down the North Sea coast. Usual caution needed - Karl might decide on a different track - but at least there's something of interest for us to watch develop over the coming days.

 

Some improvements on the latest GFS. Some Autumn storms blowing through but also a lot more anticyclonic influences than on previous runs. It's too early still for any serious storms down here imho, would rather that waited until November.

[Blessed Weather]

17 hours ago, stainesbloke said:

Some improvements on the latest GFS. Some Autumn storms blowing through but also a lot more anticyclonic influences than on previous runs. It's too early still for any serious storms down here imho, would rather that waited until November.

Yes, 24 hours on and ECM & GFS on the 0z runs now showing very little impact from ex TS Karl here in our Region next Weds/Thurs. Both models now have the Azores High nudging in and the main influence for us, although it appears to squeeze the isobars even more for Scotland - could be unpleasant up there. 

With an ex TS in the mix it's not surprising the models are struggling for consistency. Take a week today - GFS shows a pleasant day for us with high pressure near; ECM shows the high hundreds of miles away and goes for a very windy, cool day. Moving on, GFS keeps the benign anticyclonic weather, ECM goes for a much more unsettled start to October. One of them's got it wrong!

Fri 30th GFS  ECM

But back to today - what a beautiful sunny start. Chilly overnight though, with a min of 5.5C.

[Mark wheeler]

A lovely beautiful start today and tomorrow looks like being a very good day 25c possible and for once it is going to fall on a Saturday hooray. Bike rides for the family tmrw to Richmond park . I just hope it is not too windy . Enjoy the nice bonus summer day 

[alexisj9]

Lovely start today, the type of morning I like. Nice and fresh, sunny. Can't wait till the crisp mornings start.

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

And this guys is why I love the Balearics in September/October!! 

Edit: just watched this mushroom up before my eyes as if it was a time lapse and now it's belting out shotgun thunder!! I'm in convective paradise today! 

Edited September 23, 2016 by East_England_Stormchaser91

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Well the GFS 06z is stunning..

[lassie23]

It was cool last night 8.8c

[Flaked Queen]

Lovely warm day wouldn't say hot ... Grapes done so well this year ... Just want to move into the Autumn now and see what winter brings .. Guess the mad thread will be hunting for cold as of now :/

[crazysnowcatz4]

Certainly was chilly this morning but warmed up nicely. Our local Morrisons had gritted the approach road and were selling mince pies ( sell by Oct 4th mad or what ! )
.

What do they know that we don't..