South East and East Anglia weather discussion/Chat - 1st September 2016 onwards

[Dami]

8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Horrible day here too, it was on the cards that a proper cold spell would be dumped by the models eventually, I think November will be average. Not sure why people still need to comment on or take every model run seriously. People say they love the chase and the ride they get in the MOD thread, but it is counter productive, if you are just going to be left seriously disappointed at the end.

I think all the computerisation of weather forecasts  is amazing, the radar as well is very useful too. Although I think I'd rather just be disappointed knowing nothing happened then seeing a storm on radar pass me by miles. 

Could never totally believe what a computer not matter how super thinks will happen. Until of course it can pinpoint where storms are going to be by the second.

Don't want much really. \o/

[lassie23]

8 minutes ago, Dami said:

I think all the computerisation of weather forecasts  is amazing, the radar as well is very useful too. Although I think I'd rather just be disappointed knowing nothing happened then seeing a storm on radar pass me by miles. 

Could never totally believe what a computer not matter how super thinks will happen. Until of course it can pinpoint where storms are going to be by the second.

Don't want much really. \o/

Radar is good, but i can usually  see anything of interest fizzling out before it gets here

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

5 hours ago, Ben Lewis said:

Correct, BBC and ITV TV forecasts this morning had Hertfordshire dry with only heavier rain affecting Sussex and Kent. I can confirm is raining moderately here for the past 1 Hour.

Unreal that in this day and age Weather Services still cant get an accurate forecast 3 hours out.

Yes, ridiculously inaccurate forecast.

[NO LONGER POSTING]

13 hours ago, Jimmyh said:

@surrey

Please mate explain to me where you see a train of low pressure systems waiting in the atlantic to unleash itself. Nowhere. Nothing like the previous 3 autumns. as I said earlier a couple of pages back. There is no roaring huge purple PV that is organised itself this year. No-one is banging on about it being different what we are trying to say and in a very amateur way I am picking up signals like everyone else. At the end of the day no one knows wot the weather will do. I have already had ice on the car this year. something not achieved at all during the whole of 2013-2014 and most of last year as well.

If we have a cold December the I for one will be happy as I hate mild dross. love a good storm. This feels like a cold weekend coming up we shall see.   

 

Morning Jimmy, 

THE GFS this morning man, It's like an on slaught of low pressures one after the other after we get next week out the way.  Although a little way out and subject to change I'm not convinced by the "good" start to winter. It's going to take a turn..

There is nothing unusual about having frosts now it's the start of November. 

I think because winters have been so poor (I haven't thrown a snow ball in 3 years) that the bar has been lowered for some as what is cold. -2 is not cold for the UK and is quite expected in winter.

My main point was, I'm expecting to start seeing a flip to more mobile conditions. Once this happens it's going to be hard to close it off as it establishes itself thanks to a roaring jet coming out the states due a to massive temperature difference.

 

Edited November 5, 2016 by Surrey

[lassie23]

7 minutes ago, Surrey said:

 

Morning Jimmy, 

THE GFS this morning man, It's like an on slaught of low pressures one after the other after we get next week out the way.  Although a little way out and subject to change I'm not convinced by the "good" start to winter. It's going to take a turn..

There is nothing unusual about having frosts now it's the start of November. 

I think because winters have been so poor (I haven't thrown a snow ball in 3 years) that the bar has been lowered for some as what is cold. -2 is not cold for the UK and is quite expected in winter.

My main point was, I'm expecting to start seeing a flip to more mobile conditions. Once this happens it's going to be hard to close it off as it establishes itself thanks to a roaring jet coming out the states due a to massive temperature difference.

 

Frost really isn't good enough and you can't really call 10c by day and 0c by night a cold spell or a good start to winter, just good compared to the last three years when there was no winter at all.

[Captain Shortwave]

A dull start here an area of low cloud is moving south which should clear or break up during the day. watch out for showers down the eastern side of East Anglia and Kent throughout the weekend.,

Typically the ECM is teasing once again with a deep trough to our east and a monster Atlantic ridge. 

Edited November 5, 2016 by Captain Shortwave

[stainesbloke]

Good points made, Surrey. Frosts in November used to be quite a common occurrence in years gone by but many recent 'winters' have skewed perceptions and expectations quite drastically. We might have a period of Atlantic mobility but this winter will be different imho, not saying it'll be a mega snow-fest, just feel it'll be much more blocked and colder than what we've gotten used to. Which is fine by me! 

[Mark wheeler]

Watching the BBC national weather there was some wintriness over us in the early hours of the morning . I don't expect anything but I was just suprised when it popped up on the screen.

[Blessed Weather]

2 hours ago, Surrey said:

 

Morning Jimmy, 

THE GFS this morning man, It's like an on slaught of low pressures one after the other after we get next week out the way.  Although a little way out and subject to change I'm not convinced by the "good" start to winter. It's going to take a turn..

There is nothing unusual about having frosts now it's the start of November. 

I think because winters have been so poor (I haven't thrown a snow ball in 3 years) that the bar has been lowered for some as what is cold. -2 is not cold for the UK and is quite expected in winter.

My main point was, I'm expecting to start seeing a flip to more mobile conditions. Once this happens it's going to be hard to close it off as it establishes itself thanks to a roaring jet coming out the states due a to massive temperature difference.

 

It's good to have a range of opinions about this coming winter, especially when supported by some 'reasoning' to support your viewpoint (as you do). And as @stainesbloke says, you raise some good points.

My 'feel' is that this winter could see some potent cold spells as a meandering Jet and blocked conditions could be a recurring theme. I posted in the 'Snow in the N Hemisphere' thread about the record low Arctic sea ice levels this Autumn, with the Arctic SST's +5C above long-term average. There is a recent report titled "Climate Response to Blue Arctic Ocean" (i.e. ice free Arctic) that concludes;

"We demonstrated atmospheric responses to a reduction in Arctic sea ice via simulations in which Arctic sea ice decreased stepwise from the present-day range to an ice-free range. In all cases, the tropospheric response exhibited a negative Arctic Oscillation (AO)-like pattern. An intensification of the climatological planetary-scale wave due to the present-day sea ice reduction on the Atlantic side of the Arctic Ocean induced stratospheric polar vortex weakening and the subsequent negative AO." 

https://www.researchgate.net/publication/308009569_On_the_atmospheric_response_experiment_to_a_Blue_Arctic_Ocean_Climate_Response_to_Blue_Arctic_Ocean

So it certainly leaves me wondering, are we witnessing this Autumn exactly what the report authors concluded?? But there are other factors too, such as the 'quiet sun' that @Changing Skies.posted about the other day.

Anyway - it all makes for great model watching at the moment. It could be an epic winter for spat out dummies and tantrums over in the mad thread!!

[SenlacJack]

23 hours ago, Blessed Weather said:

Looks like most of us will see a bit of rain today; it's just started here. But it's the developing area of rain that's moving along southern coastal counties that caught my eye. Looking like a very wet spell for Sussex and Kent later this afternoon. That'll make the bonfires soggy!

Radar 08.50  10.45

Arpege 06z for 17.00

No kidding. After what was a very dry October this afternoons deluge dropped just over 26mm's of rain in just a few hours causing some minor flooding locally.

[alexisj9]

6 hours ago, lassie23 said:

Frost really isn't good enough and you can't really call 10c by day and 0c by night a cold spell or a good start to winter, just good compared to the last three years when there was no winter at all.

A high of 10, your very lucky I have a high of 6.6 so far today. Not had any frost yet though, unless it's melted before I done the school run.

[lassie23]

16 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

A high of 10, your very lucky I have a high of 6.6 so far today. Not had any frost yet though, unless it's melted before I done the school run.

6.6c That's more like it

Edited November 5, 2016 by lassie23

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Am I the only one for whom there's been no wind at all today? 

[Mark wheeler]

A cool/childish breeze blowing through Clapham junction station as I wait for the train.

[JennyJane1]

18 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Am I the only one for whom there's been no wind at all today? 

not entirely sure but i haven't heard any today, have heard quite heavy rain thisafternoon.Wish it had put off my next door neighbour from letting off loud fireworks, my pets are going berserk.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

2 minutes ago, JennyJane1 said:

not entirely sure but i haven't heard any today, have heard quite heavy rain thisafternoon.Wish it had put off my next door neighbour from letting off loud fireworks, my pets are going berserk.

Same here,  Bloody things should be banned.

[JennyJane1]

1 minute ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Same here,  Bloody things should be banned.

Or at least that its one night a year at a given time for two hours its been going on for over a week already.And they are so loud now.

[lassie23]

Just goes to show how little cold we have had in recent years, I found it freezing today, even though the temperature was 9c

[lassie23]

Just now, JennyJane1 said:

Or at least that its one night a year at a given time for two hours its been going on for over a week already.And they are so loud now.

Had Diwali celebrations for four days and then guy fawkes so that is pretty much a week of fireworks, my cat hates them

[JennyJane1]

6 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

Had Diwali celebrations for four days and then guy fawkes so that is pretty much a week of fireworks, my cat hates them

Oh is that why? that explains it.

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, JennyJane1 said:

Oh is that why? that explains it.

and for some reason people do fireworks for halloween now too.

[Mark wheeler]

Ooo first mention of sleet in the met office southeast forecasts for the hills 

[JennyJane1]

3 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

and for some reason people do fireworks for halloween now too.

any excuse. its quite a bit chillier here tonight, when's the snow expected?

[lassie23]

1 minute ago, JennyJane1 said:

any excuse. its quite a bit chillier here tonight, when's the snow expected?

Snow down here I never knew there was going to be any

[JennyJane1]

Just now, lassie23 said:

Snow down here I never knew there was going to be any

i think in about seven days time? some talk in the model thread this morning of possible conditions but i must admit its quite difficult to follow, all written in weathery terms.