North West England Regional Weather Discussion

[Day 10]

4 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

The MetO warning is bizarre.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings®ionName=nw&fcTime=1484179200

Either they know something we don't, OR they're ignoring the fact that the wind is from the WNW which always (due to the law of physics), pushing convective showers well inland. The other alternative is that they are expecting the showers to be of rain, even in places like the Peak District.

It's worth noting that they are currently ignoring their own model:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw2xg6np#?fcTime=1484179200  Oldham shows heavy snow between 6am and 9am.

I think they are wrong, but as ever, we shall see.

Its that bloody low moving up from SW. We are just going to end up bloody cold, grey and dry. Snow showers scot/ire, rain/snow south, us no mans land!!! Not suprised one bit!!!

[Snow free zone]

Wouldnt get too hung up on the warnings ..... aren't they for chances of disruption to travel etc ?

Can still snow and as Joe says winds from the W or WNW almost always mean we get showers across the region well we do when its rain anyway looking at the change over the past 24hrs things can and will probably change again. 

 

[Joe Bloggs]

FWIW, here is the Euro4 for 6z Thursday morning (as far as it goes). This model will be more accurate than others but still not flawless. 

A line of showers pushing west to east through the region. Parameters show snow (but marginal near the coast)

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Joe Bloggs

[chicken soup]

If anyone knows what there on about its the met office...highly unlikely that they are wrong this close to the event.....utterly shocking let down of monumental proportions

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Meto just tweeted this now! #soconfused.com

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, chicken soup said:

If anyone knows what there on about its the met office...highly unlikely that they are wrong this close to the event.....utterly shocking let down of monumental proportions

Shall we judge it after the event? I'd rather read constructive stuff that toys being thrown out of the pram comments. 

[Spah1]

shouldn't of told my Dad it was going to snow. 

[chiffer]

Just give it time and don't expect any more warnings until tomorrow morning. It's clear that there experience is showing conflicts in what we see in the models. But it would seem they're in the same position as us, waiting for the lamp light. It'll snow and it'll be glorious.

[cheshire snow]

OK going to go and chill out and calm down,then back to see the 12z,need that low to do one or stay as far south as possible,must admit my computer nearly did one a few minutes a go.........breath and chill LOL

C.S. 

[Chris.R]

 Just catching up on posts.  Come on, a bit of a over reaction. Nothing has changed as far as I can see, Wind still should  still be WNW. Think they removed the  warning temporarily, let's all calm down, it'll be fine.  There is absolutely no way given the forecast parameters that some quite disruptive showers won't developing in the irish sea, absolutely no way! 

 And there we are; they've updated the existing warning. 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Chris.R

[cheshire snow]

Bloody he'll it's just updated again we are all back in the game

C.S

[Spah1]

They only issued them yesterday how can they change in 24hrs!!!!!

[chiffer]

7 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Bloody he'll it's just updated again we are all back in the game

C.S

Oh good, I had been packing my winter clothes back up and telling the wife the MetO were wrong at the same time.

[dodge]

Met office update back again now for Thurs but if they could underline, bolden & use a larger font for the word 'ocassional' wintry showers, I think they would.

[Spah1]

3 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Bloody he'll it's just updated again we are all back in the game

C.S

Yyyyyyeeeeeesssssss!!!!

[Spah1]

They have down graded the volume of PPN/snow

[dodge]

Blimey if we've gone through almost two pages regarding a met office warning cancellation & update this threads going to be on fire when/if the fabled white stuff falls.  On that note time for some fresh air.

[chicken soup]

Slowly picking my toys up and returning them to my pram

Edited January 10, 2017 by chicken soup

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, dodgeredee said:

Blimey if we've gone through almost two pages regarding a met office warning cancellation & update this threads going to be on fire when/if the fabled white stuff falls.  On that note time for some fresh air.

Because we were disagreeing with the Met office stating Northerly winds,when every model including there own stated West to North West winds

Apologies for my little rant I want us all to see snow and it's just so frustrating when it appears to be snatched from our hands at the last moment

Anyway of out for fresh air as well

C.S

[Day 10]

15 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

Bloody he'll it's just updated again we are all back in the game

C.S

Talk about them messing with our heads! Haha

[Day 10]

Lets hope something more substantial develops between Thurs an sat in the northerly flow. Has happened many times in the past.

[Geordiesnow]

Got to remember, the uncertainty regarding details will no doubt vary and that will impact on everything so it really is a nowcasting situation. Ill be surprised if inland parts of the region don't at least see some snow falling at times and I still think there is a chance some could wake up to some sort of a covering on Thursday morning.

The potential spoiler to Thursday's convective weather is that ripple of a weather front embedded in the flow, if that is too far North, then I would imagine it will limit on the convective potential which is kind of what the BBC graphics are indicating however if this is much further South then I would imagine the convective situation will be back again.

I don't know too much about snow events in this region when it comes to wind direction but I would imagine we don't want too see the wind back too far Northerly otherwise any showers could well become confined to the coasts although there is always a chance of any troughs embedded in.

We got to be wary about over analysing every run and every forecast because they will vary considerably. my snow expectations for my area is pretty low but I will be very dissapointed if the convective potential becomes more limited because of that front that is embedded in the flow, I don't want a boring grey day, want the classic sunshine and showers set up!

[Thunder Snow]

yey back in warning area 

[Miamay]

Its all confusing !!! met office showing me as sleety showers now

[chiffer]

Don't worry about them, when do they ever work?