North West England Regional Weather Discussion

[cheshire snow]

5 minutes ago, Stratocumulus perlucidus said:

All warnings changed tomorrows is removed completely 

But Thursdays haven't can you post me a link for Thursday because I must be looking at the wrong thing.

C.S

[frosty ground]

The warning states a Northerly wind direction, but the MetO app states a westerly direction.

Either they think there will be no instability (or much less) hench the Lightning warning is no longer there, or they think the wind direction will be to northerly.

Either was it's not looking good for snow accumulation, I think snow fall (light) is likely.

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by frosty ground

[Snow free zone]

Yes almost all of us now out of the yellow warning area, extreme coastal areas and those further S still in the yellow area. All to do with the wind direction. 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, cheshire snow said:

But Thursdays haven't can you post me a link for Thursday because I must be looking at the wrong thing.

C.S

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings&map=Warnings&zoom=5&lon=-3.50&lat=55.50&fcTime=1484179200&regionName=nw

Warning are only touches the coast of the north west now, rather than hitting Warrington 

[northwestsnow]

Pmsl.

Arr well at the least the easterly is looking good at day 10

[Thunder Snow]

surely they can't have taken the 06z in to consideration as that has a band of snow over Cumbria moving south ?

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

The warning still changed! I just looked at ecm and gfs and the both have the low much further south than bbc and sky are saying. The warning covers upto liverpool coast and thats it. Unless that low is further southbas the gfs and ecm are progging then it probs is game over for thursday 

[northwestsnow]

Obviously the winds are now looking much more northerly than we all thought.Puts the majority of our region out of the game.

Great.

[chicken soup]

This is a disaster..biggest let down yet..I almost feel like weeping.

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Obviously the winds are now looking much more northerly than we all thought.Puts the majority of our region out of the game.

Great.

It not the winds its that low pressure that isnt a real low! Lol

[northwestsnow]

2 minutes ago, Thunder Snow said:

surely they can't have taken the 06z in to consideration as that has a band of snow over Cumbria moving south ?

Yup, acc to that warning it was virtual snow, as it nearly always is for us poor sods.

[cheshire snow]

Well Euro 4 06 that's just updated say otherwise w-nw and plenty of snow

Showers northern parts

C.s

[dodge]

Just goes to show how things can quickly change, signs were promising for the past few days but we need that westerly component to the wind. 

 

[Spah1]

aaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh

Just checked and we are out of the zone. 

For Goodness sake. 

[Joe Bloggs]

The MetO warning is bizarre.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings®ionName=nw&fcTime=1484179200

Either they know something we don't, OR they're ignoring the fact that the wind is from the WNW which always (due to the law of physics), pushing convective showers well inland. The other alternative is that they are expecting the showers to be of rain, even in places like the Peak District.

It's worth noting that they are currently ignoring their own model:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw2xg6np#?fcTime=1484179200  Oldham shows heavy snow between 6am and 9am.

I think they are wrong, but as ever, we shall see.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Joe Bloggs

[northwestsnow]

Just now, cheshire snow said:

Well Euro 4 06 that's just updated say otherwise w-nw and plenty of snow

Showers northern parts

C.s

Hope so mate its bloody painful for the north west getting snow..

[Stratocumulus perlucidus]

Gfs and ecm both say game on! But meti bbc and sky are saying game off. Dunno wat to believe no more

[frosty ground]

Look at the 06z Ensembles for my area Pretty dry, only light stuff Thursday.



Then compare that to the Coastal area (Wirral) Much more.

[northwestsnow]

Just now, Joe Bloggs said:

The MetO warning is bizarre.

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/warnings/#?tab=warnings®ionName=nw&fcTime=1484179200

Either they know something we don't, OR they're ignoring the fact that the wind is from the WNW which always (due to the law of physics), pushing convective showers well inland. The other alternative is that they are expecting the showers to be of rain, even in places like the Peak District.

It's worth noting that they are currently ignoring their own model:

http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw2xg6np#?fcTime=1484179200 Oldham shows heavy snow between 6am and 9am.

I think they are wrong, but as ever, we shall see.

Its a downgrade of mammoth proportions joe.im just shaking my head 

..

[NickyB]

Oh well, we'll just have to get lamppost watching and keep our fingers crossed.  I'm not expecting anything more than a bit of sleet on the coast but I still live in hope.

[Joe Bloggs]

Just now, frosty ground said:

Look at the 06z Ensembles for my area Pretty dry, only light stuff Thursday.



Then compare that to the Coastal area (Wirral) Much more.

Ignore the low res rainfall models.

[Joe Bloggs]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

Its a downgrade of mammoth proportions joe.im just shaking my head 

..

It's wrong IMO.

[chiffer]

I'm not that worried, still plenty of time for change in my opinion. I'll be keeping an eye on the 12z's later on. A warning for snow has never meant a lot for our region anyway.

[dodge]

So we will have the freezing cold wind, temps & dewpoints will be conducive but we won't get enough precipitation?  Just looking up the meaning of 'sods law' again

[cheshire snow]

2 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

It's wrong IMO.

And mine Joe,they are going against all the models,including there own

C.S