SE England and EA Regional Weather Discussion

[nanu]

black bin liners are awesome for sledging.. went mach1 once in wales

But please the old vets here will know that down here you never ever think that when they say "it could snow" that it will. And never ever go by them stupid graphics that are generated by cheap apps that also appear on the bbc red button weather page.

And Never buy a sledge.. last person who did that on this site doomed us all to 3 years without snow 

[Mapantz]

26 minutes ago, Surrey said:

Well no not if you got a massive high pressure cell with cold under cutting from the east and there is not a sniff of PPN. 

But that's not the case here, unstable northly, troughs, imbedded lows, potential other lows to form in the flow. 

But it's a known saying that first you must establish a cold flow or cold air and uppers to support snow. This semi eliminates the chance for any warmer sectors. Then you worry about PPN which can form minutes before in the form of showers or something more substantial like a trough of low. 

Given the massive amount of what COULD happen between now and Saturday, I'm glad we are getting the cold in first. 

 

On this occasion, that is not the case. The cold air will already be in place, we need that cold air to be pulled in and to undercut for snow to fall. If the development is further south, then it will be rain grazing the South coast. If the development is further North, then it will still be rain for most, except on the northern edge- the dreaded M4 will be mentioned. 

[Dami]

Btw My post regarding my symbol was tongue in cheek, just as the 80% snow risk that has just popped up for me hasn't made me do a little dance. I know it means nothing.

cheers.

[Ben Lewis]

Latest live Beeb forecast with Jay wynn 

Friday: a few wintry showers mainly for east coast! 

Certainly nothing along the lines of the GFS 12z - best thing to do is stick with meto and BBC for fridays chances (if any) rather than exciting yourself with the latest GFS run and over excited snow loons on this site (I'm a snow loon as well btw) 

A very much now cast situation looking for any instability brewing out on North Sea coasts heading south. It's a big ask and one that could just leave the SE with a sunny and windy day Friday. 

[shotski]

1 hour ago, Rob Deacon said:

I've always used random stuff for sledging, I once removed a car bonnet to use that 

But I have always wanted a proper old school wooden sledge, and with 3 kids it would get some good use if we get any.

This reminds me of my misspent youth, we once used an old (glass) tv screen as a sledge  boy was that fast but probably not the brightest thing to do looking back 

[Kent Blizzard]

11 minutes ago, shotski said:

This reminds me of my misspent youth, we once used an old (glass) tv screen as a sledge  boy was that fast but probably not the brightest thing to do looking back 

No, no its not unless you want to turn your bum into a 4 slice toaster

[shotski]

3 minutes ago, Kent Blizzard said:

No, no its not unless you want to turn your bum into a 4 slice toaster

My bum turned into a 4 slice toaster when I saw this 

[Ben Lewis]

Latest ECM firmly cancels out any rain to snow on back edge Thursday.

Possibly sleet on highest hills as the ppn pulls away SE. 

So all eyes on Friday, can we pinch at least a flake from a rouge shower. 

Otherwise it's business as usual thereafter- Dry and Cold (Ish) with the hopes of the ECM giving us a more amplified pattern upstream at + 144

[jodaw84]

6 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Latest ECM firmly cancels out any rain to snow on back edge Thursday.

Possibly sleet on highest hills as the ppn pulls away SE. 

So all eyes on Friday, can we pinch at least a flake from a rouge shower. 

Otherwise it's business as usual thereafter- Dry and Cold (Ish) with the hopes of the ECM giving us a more amplified pattern upstream at + 144

Huh I thought it was Friday which was interesting for us here in the SE? The low (don't know if that is actually what it is! Easily confused here!) working its way down the east coast Friday day am, or has that gone now? C

 

If we got a middle ground between ECM and GFS in the longer term outlook would we still have a chance of the white stuff here being to the East? 

Edited January 10, 2017 by jodaw84

[Ben Lewis]

2 minutes ago, jodaw84 said:

Huh I thought it was Friday which was interesting for us here in the SE? The low working its way down the east coast Friday day am, or has that gone now? C

 

If we got a middle ground between ECM and GFS in the longer term outlook would we still have a chance of the white stuff here being to the East? 

Friday of course is of more interest.

But this is the UK - a snow chance like Thursday that could of given us, is not wise to ignore!

Every lost snow potential is a big deal living in this country. It's not as if we have chance after chance and can pick and choose.

Also, there is a METO warning for snow (albeit unlikely) in their description for all of our region on Thursday. 

Friday only covering Norfolk and Suffolk.. so in Met office terms... Thursday was more likely than Friday.

I wouldnt be suprised if Thursdays snow warning was removed tomorrow anyway! 

[shotski]

12 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

Latest ECM firmly cancels out any rain to snow on back edge Thursday.

Possibly sleet on highest hills as the ppn pulls away SE. 

So all eyes on Friday, can we pinch at least a flake from a rouge shower. 

Otherwise it's business as usual thereafter- Dry and Cold (Ish) with the hopes of the ECM giving us a more amplified pattern upstream at + 144

Is this an assessment of the ECM 12z or your own personal opinion ? It's just I don't think your comments represent the run very well. Just my opinion of course. 

[JennyJane1]

3 hours ago, Dami said:

And BAM!

My sleet symbol is now back to rain.

\o.

How many times......stop window shopping for coats, boots etc Go buy a pair of sandals or something.

[Ben Lewis]

6 minutes ago, shotski said:

Is this an assessment of the ECM 12z or your own personal opinion ? It's just I don't think your comments represent the run very well. Just my opinion of course. 

My assessment of the ECM 12z 

Please feel free to tell me where I'm going wrong? 

Of course I could assess it with my snow goggles on and bark that we are all going to see snow gauranteed on Thursday or Friday? Would that have gone down better with you? 

Interestingly the latest BBC London forecast gives areas to the south of London a good snow chance on Thursday

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Ben Lewis

[paget]

21 minutes ago, shotski said:

My bum turned into a 4 slice toaster when I saw this 

I didn't read the previous post and thought your comment was a saying you would say when you see something good (i.e. The chart) been trying to work out why that would be a good thing??!!!! (Muffins, toast, bagels maybe??!!) 

[shotski]

7 minutes ago, paget said:

I didn't read the previous post and thought your comment was a saying you would say when you see something good (i.e. The chart) been trying to work out why that would be a good thing??!!!! (Muffins, toast, bagels maybe??!!) 

LOL, certainly wouldn't fit a bagel in it. 

[shotski]

9 minutes ago, Ben Lewis said:

My assessment of the ECM 12z 

Please feel free to tell me where I'm going wrong? 

Of course I could assess it with my snow goggles on and bark that we are all going to see snow gauranteed on Thursday or Friday? Would that have gone down better with you? 

Interestingly the latest BBC London forecast gives areas to the south of London a good snow chance on Thursday

 

No mate, it's all about opinions. 

[lassie23]

no cross model agreement , no easterly

[shotski]

8 minutes ago, lassie23 said:

no cross model agreement , no easterly

Don't tell me, Iapennell LOL. 

But you could be correct. 

Edited January 10, 2017 by shotski

[Ben Lewis]

11 minutes ago, shotski said:

No mate, it's all about opinions. 

Cool. 

I try to read charts (I'm no professional) from limited experience and from the knowledgeable guys over on the MOD thread.

the latest ECM 12z doesn't have a rain to snow event on Thursday and on Friday doesn't mirror the GFS snow potential. 

Of course I'm hoping the GFS 12z is on the money. 

[Met4Cast]

1 minute ago, Ben Lewis said:

Cool. 

I try to read charts (I'm no professional) from limited experience and from the knowledgeable guys over on the MOD thread.

the latest ECM 12z doesn't have a rain to snow event on Thursday and on Friday doesn't mirror the GFS snow potential. 

Of course I'm hoping the GFS 12z is on the money. 

 

I'm hoping it isn't. GFS is great short term but the cold will be gone by early next week. ECM sends us into the freezer for at least a week with plenty of opportunities for snowfall.

[Long haul to mild]

To illustrate how Friday's potential snow feature is very questionable at present:

Below is from NMM model; snow moving South through the region:

 

But this is how the ARPEGE shows it; nothing to see here.....

 

Which way will it go?

[Captain Shortwave]

Well here is the fax for Friday morning, there is a front moving down the east coast which is the feature in question.This has cleared East Anglia by midday. The question remains whether it will be rain or snow though. Saying that the 528 dam line is well clear of the UK which is good news.

Edited January 10, 2017 by Captain Shortwave

[Dami]

1 hour ago, JennyJane1 said:

How many times......stop window shopping for coats, boots etc Go buy a pair of sandals or something.

I never window shop. If i'm looking it's to make a mental list of what's there, then I make a list of what I need over what I want It's all very scientific. I have a list ready for summer. But don't panic. That's for sneakers, flats and loafers in case the weather is cool or wet .. you know what that means?

A hot dry summer.

You may thank me later

 

[crazysnowcatz4]

Well , my take on this for the SE region as especially Kent is. In my experience from the West / NW the ppt usually runs out of puff by the time it gets here. In addition right on the South coast is likely to be just too warm for any snow.  The best chance for any snow , and it won't be sledges time I fear is, if the ppt arrives as late as possible on Thursday once the temperature has dropped away a bit. However it might be best to take what we can get. As has already been said, watch the radar, odd things can happen and sometime very locally..

[Ben Lewis]

1 hour ago, Daniel Smith said:

 

I'm hoping it isn't. GFS is great short term but the cold will be gone by early next week. ECM sends us into the freezer for at least a week with plenty of opportunities for snowfall.

Really? You would sacrifice potential snow in the reliable for a FI La la land freezer opportunity.

No way.... If there were cross model agreement then maybe. But absolutely no way would I turn away fridays GFS 12z for some ECM 12z run that gives us an "opportunity" to go into the freezer in la la land 

 

Edited January 10, 2017 by Ben Lewis