Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[TEITS]

23 minutes ago, Catacol said:

To suggest it is psychobabble and not worth reading is more a reflection of limited understanding of the process. I would suggest rereading much of the material and spending time trying to grasp just what it is that affects the upstream patterns that ultimately affect our tiny part of the world. Where has the westerly pattern next week come from? What causes vortex intensification? Why do we have a sustained alaskan high modelled? Tackle this issues and you will improve. Throw your hands up in frustration at perceived counter intuitive forecasting from others without engaging in the detail of the analysis and you'll never go far - unless staring at each and every T+300 GFS op run floats your boat.

Im curious but didn't you predict the Vortex to remain weak, sluggish atlantic, W,lys only being shortlived for around 7 days? Models failing to pick up amplification for xmas week?

Lets get back to reality. The models continue to suggest a W,ly phase lasting into the New year.

No sign of any E,ly.

[TEITS]

4 minutes ago, Catacol said:

I despair. I hope the likes of Tamara and GP will keep posting despite open criticism. Those members who dont understand what is being put out there would be better just saying nothing rather than saying something that simply reflects their own ignorance. We can all agree that weather forecasting isnt arithmetic - 2+2= 4 but sometimes it also =5 (take a look at Masiello's tweet above) - but if we dont try and understand what is creating that kind of variation then there is little point to any forecasting science. I'm not sure how much store I put in Cohen's October snow cover theories... but I rather like his twitter profile: "Always trying to push the boundaries what we can forecast about the weather on seasonal to sub-seasonal time-scales."

When will members understand im not critising GP, Tamara personally. I am sceptical of the methods used and sceptical full stop when it comes to any long range forecasts.

Wish some would stop being so sensitive. Nothing wrong with making an inaccurate forecast. This happens to the pros all the time.

[Tamara]

2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Egocentric bs mostly 

Or you could offer something intelligent yourself for a change other than spam?

The general debate over 'methodology' individuals use is a circular one that come around every winter, though alas it also show its face in summer increasingly too, even with the smaller audience.  I would never have thought that 'weather snobbery' was a phenomenon that existed. The notion seems somewhat absurd. But hey-ho, sadly it appears it does. Attached to the general one-upmanship and 'my dad is bigger and better than your dad' - that is too common.

Ironically various members who do refer to the more complex driver aspects in weather modelling are actually amongst some of the most self effacing individuals who simply endeavour to offer an alternative approach that steps back from NWP analysis and uses the timelines that various intra-seasonal phenomena that make it possible to anticipate cycles in weather patterns. I know this for sure because I have pm conversations with quite a few of them, and also its easy to identify the large number of open minded, non judgmental members who might not post themselves on the subject matter, but do exist on here. All these people, irrespective of how much they know, or don't know, are invaluable. The point is they are open minded and receptive to new information and different subject matter.

A lot of the prejudice problems amongst the minority exists because the Global Synoptic Dynamical Model which incorporates the Global Wind Oscillation (as a measure of total global windflow which effectively is what makes up the Jetstream) is a conceptual model - and as such isn't taken seriously as a kind of 'peer reviewed' science widely adopted in more visible meteorological circles. At least that is how it goes - so called.

The GSDM was devised by two senior noaa officials who have subsequently retired. The GWO and AAM plots were freely available on the noaa site up till a few years back, but they took the copyright with them when they retired. We all know that Glacier Point took forward the methods and they were incorporated into net weather seasonal forecasts, as well as becoming common-place part of technical model discussions. They have been taken on by others as well as him of course since ( much like stratospheric research with various others). Beyond the importance of a community that is equal to all levels of knowledge, experience, and abundant enthusiasm, isn't this what a weather forum should be all about? What has that to do with 'ego bs' - as so eloquently described?

So the initial conception of the GSDM is sufficient to endorse its reputation and value as a highly useful meteorological tool for anyone who is open minded to accept it and maybe also take time themselves to understand its complexities, or ask a number of people who themselves are trying to understand it, for help. There is plenty of help available on this site from completely ego-free members who simply enjoy the challenge of learning something new and then trying to pitch that understanding beyond any 'psychobabble' theory into real-time global weather patterns. It costs nothing, no 'paywall'. No-one one has to do it - but the choice is there to include it amongst the general NWP tools widely relied on, and it beats moaning about the lack of your favourite weather...

This isn't mystic meg, or some absurd attempt to steal forum limelight through using long flouncy language as a small few in this thread and elsewhere ridiculously peddle - its the type of methodology that the professionals use behind the scenes. I remember receiving an encouraging pm message from Ian F in this respect and, like other members, told not to worry about making long winded and 'boring' posts. Clearly, even if they don't look at the GWO per se (they might) and don't necessarily pitch into the WDT site daily like some of us amateur enthusiasts do on here, the aspects of this type of forecasting are still obviously used on a properly professional basis, by the likes of the METO.  Besides, the interpretations of the acronym science are obviously broken down by them in to simple language to jo public what weather types they might expect.

That isn't an easy task for sure and although attempts are made to explain complex jargon, maybe its still something some of us budding learners should do better on here

Like stratospheric forecasting was just some 7 or 8 years back in time, a lot of research of these types is still in its infancy.

Quite a few will remember how chiono led something quite ground breaking in this field at the time, and it has become a spearhead tool of the seasonal winter forecast on this site. I think he and others (including the amazing virtual model masterly of Recretos) have succeeded in breaking this subject down into parts that a wide number of different members understand. That is not easy to do.

Parochial prejudice existed in pockets with stratospheric forecasting on this site and elsewhere in the public at large until the Met Office came out shortly after the 2009/10 period and starting making blog references to it, and further still it went into mainstream television and media bulletins.

Its certainly not aimed to be akin to some of the 'belief induction' that occurs in some over zealous climate change debates - its an attempt to read between the lines and offer and open up extra discussion lines. Its also not an ego exercise - just an attempt to be informative and give something extra to think about. Its also a personal challenge to try and learn something new.

Its better than posting one line spam for sure. Be sceptical by all means, but if the intention is to be just respectfully sceptical then that might be more convincingly illustrated by less of an apparent need to keep repeating that scepticism over and over, especially at times when hopes related to seasonal weather bias ae iding high. That looks suspiciously like hypocrisy and attention seeking -  smacks of the very same ego of those persistently pointing the critique finger.

Last but by no means least, this would appear much less than a one-upmanship arena, if people stuck to the frustrations, hopes etc of the computer models and left 'personal member performance assessment ratings out of things in the first place. But again, that is as much of an intra-seasonal phenomena as the alleged psychobabble...And yes I know I have referred to one or two names on here - though at least in a positive, objective and constructive way hopefully.

Really hope this tiresome repetitive topic can be put to bed once and for all. Put up or shut up frankly comes to mind.

[northwestsnow]

8 minutes ago, TEITS said:

When will members understand im not critising GP, Tamara personally. I am sceptical of the methods used and sceptical full stop when it comes to any long range forecasts.

Wish some would stop being so sensitive. Nothing wrong with making an inaccurate forecast. This happens to the pros all the time.

D Brett was on the beeb only last night suggesting cold winds post christmas day....

unless he has his own model i dont understand why a pro would go on the television to suggest such   thing because there is absolutely nothing on any of the NWP this morning to suggest anything like that,

[Catacol]

7 minutes ago, TEITS said:

Im curious but didn't you predict the Vortex to remain weak, sluggish atlantic, W,lys only being shortlived for around 7 days? Models failing to pick up amplification for xmas week?

 

Correct. Taking Xmas day as a focal point 

trop speed at 55N pretty sluggish, speeds at the top in retreat (run the sequence) and negative anomalies over high latitudes as the alaskan high spikes. 

Not sure what date exactly to put on the 7 day westerly thought (timing was flagged constantly as an issue) here is the 27th op run:

 

and on amplification, driven by pacific forcing, we have this ECM op MJO run showing moderate level forcing in phase 7 (as though the obvious image of the alaskan high wasnt enough)

 

Note also the nino-like extension of the negative SOI running now to 9 days. I therefore stand by that comment - at least for now.

I'll agree heartily with you on one point: the above is all based on op runs of one model so in isolation is hugely vulnerable .But isnt that the point? Teleconnective analysis is trying to see passed that vulnerability and paint something accurately.

To finish - I am still hanging my coat on a cold January, though tweets from IF recently and Cohen's latest analysis have me scratching my head a bit. In the end forecasting I think inevitably overlaps into hopecasting to some degree... and perhaps I'd be wise to wait for hard data updates on the pacific pattern before posting anything more in detail. We still dont have any accurate torque and AAM data beyond 6th December which is starting to get ridiculous now.........

 

[Catacol]

Yeah - what Tamara said. Someone get an application form for Tamara to go on The Apprentice. She'd sure shake Sugar..... :-)

Edited December 19, 2017 by Catacol

[Scandinavian High.]

1 minute ago, Catacol said:

Correct. Taking Xmas day as a focal point 

trop speed at 55N pretty sluggish, speeds at the top in retreat (run the sequence) and negative anomalies over high latitudes as the alaskan high spikes. 

Not sure what date exactly to put on the 7 day westerly thought (timing was flagged constantly as an issue) here is the 27th op run:

 

and on amplification, driven by pacific forcing, we have this ECM op MJO run showing moderate level forcing in phase 7 (as though the obvious image of the alaskan high wasnt enough)

 

Note also the nino-like extension of the negative SOI running now to 9 days. I therefore stand by that comment - at least for now.

I'll agree heartily with you on one point: the above is all based on op runs of one model so in isolation is hugely vulnerable .But isnt that the point? Teleconnective analysis is trying to see passed that vulnerability and paint something accurately.

To finish - I am still hanging my coat on a cold January, though tweets from IF recently and Cohen's latest analysis have me scratching my head a bit. In the end forecasting I think inevitably overlaps into hopecasting to some degree... and perhaps I'd be wise to wait for hard data updates on the pacific pattern before posting anything more in detail. We still dont have any accurate torque and AAM data beyond 6th December which is starting to get ridiculous now.........

 

Great post .

[Nick L]

1 hour ago, coldwinter said:

The amount of disrespect on here for people who actually try and understand and analyse the atmosphere and how what is happening in the atmosphere at the time is going to effect the northern hemisphere going forward makes me wonder why the likes of GP bother posting on here at all. 

Absolutely spot on. Unfortunately we live in an age where experts are held in suspicion

Just because you don't understand something such as teleconnections, doesn't mean they're useless. The arrogance of that is revolting. 

[snowblizzard]

35 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

D Brett was on the beeb only last night suggesting cold winds post christmas day....

unless he has his own model i dont understand why a pro would go on the television to suggest such   thing because there is absolutely nothing on any of the NWP this morning to suggest anything like that,

Cold winds in Darren Bett terms are probably temps around 6/7c! 

[mushymanrob]

2 minutes ago, Nick L said:

Absolutely spot on. Unfortunately we live in an age where experts are held in suspicion

Just because you don't understand something such as teleconnections, doesn't mean they're useless. The arrogance of that is revolting. 

absolutely...... i dont understand the teleconnections and frankly i have no real desire to try. its all too complicated for my ageing head. ill stick to what i can understand better - the basic ops/anomalies. i think that i, and others, can make a decent enough guess based on past patterns as to what is most likely following pattern 'x'. thatll do for me, and good luck to those who are trying to interpret a very intricate web of data, respect for that.

[swebby]

2 hours ago, Catacol said:

..............." Take a look at high powered computer predictions of tropical convection activity - they are frankly so far off at times there is little point reading them. "............

 

2 hours ago, Catacol said:

......"Good point. Hard data quickly gets blurred by predicted data... and therein lies the heart of the teleconnective problem"...................

 

Hi Catacol - good posts.  I've cherry picked a couple of sentences as i feel this is the difficulty teleconnective analysis will face for the foreseeable. 

Forecasting the tropical convection strikes me at the moment as a very young, emerging science.  The relevant agencies are rightly spending a good amount of resources trying to improve these forecasts, it is after all the primary engine that drives our weather, but current results are less than satisfactory.  While this is the case, the tools used for a teleconnection forecast (forecast MJO, AAM etc) have the same weaknesses as the long range results of ECM/GEFS runs. I greatly appreciate the analysis/forecasts using teleconnections that are offered on this site by its members, but.....  I know they must always be accepted on the basis they are using tools that are still in the development stage.  Unfortunately in the other thread, when these analysis/forecasts mention weather type x, y or z they get jumped on with a total disregard for these obvious caveats (even when caveats are clearly stated in the members analysis).  Teleconnections are the way forward, unfortunately we are only just across the starting line of a very long race.

That 2nd tweet by Anthony Masiello is outstandingly important, in regards to forecasting by teleconnections or any other method.  Should be posted at the top of every page of the MOD thread.

[snowsummer]

3 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Wish I could understand Tamara's posts Ed!

About a yearl ago i private  messaged tamara asking for some starter points to help me learn and understand her posts. Of course she duly obliged and set me on the road to discovering more than i could ever  have imagined i was capable of learning. I think her hope was that maybe in a somewhat 'mans world' ( my words, not hers) that i too would start posting.  Sadly, im not thick skinned enough  to cope with the barage of criticism.  Hence why i often like other peoples posts, but never add my own. (Sorry atlantic, with all my new found knowledge i cant seem to remove your quote!) 

[northwestsnow]

Think it would be easier to just say another crap winter beckons.

Lets face it..thats were its heading

..

[Frost HoIIow]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Think it would be easier to just say another crap winter beckons.

Lets face it..thats were its heading

..

Now we have to endure endless dull skies, at least when there's cold snow and frost there's a good chance of some sun, this mild damp cloudy weather is depressing.

[MP-R]

49 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Think it would be easier to just say another crap winter beckons.

Lets face it..thats were its heading

..

In the same way as we were heading for scorching summer based on the weather on June 19th 2017...

No, thought not.

It's a shame to read this thread today. Despite having followed and learnt to read the models over the last decade, I still learn a huge amount from the likes of Tamara, GP, Chiono, johnholmes, BB62-63, ianpennell etc. (Apologies those I've not included but you're all appreciated!). I'm sure I speak for many that each member responsible for posts of such high standard provides a hugely interesting, informative and reasoned read every time. Whether the weather does what any model/teleconnection/member thinks or not, to know why something MIGHT happen for sheer understanding is a great help. I just hope today's negativity doesn't put off those who take the time and effort to put these posts together, to post at all. It was similar disrespect that drove away fergieweather.

[mushymanrob]

i wouldnt write off winter yet.... statistically i believe that early cold snaps are more likely to preceed a cold winter then a mild one.  of course its not a hard fact, nor rule, just the law of averages .

[northwestsnow]

12 minutes ago, MP-R said:

In the same way as we were heading for scorching summer based on the weather on June 19th 2017...

No, thought not.

It's a shame to read this thread today. Despite having followed and learnt to read the models over the last decade, I still learn a huge amount from the likes of Tamara, GP, Chiono, johnholmes, BB62-63, ianpennell etc. (Apologies those I've not included but you're all appreciated!). I'm sure I speak for many that each member responsible for posts of such high standard provides a hugely interesting, informative and reasoned read every time. Whether the weather does what any model/teleconnection/member thinks or not, to know why something MIGHT happen for sheer understanding is a great help. I just hope today's negativity doesn't put off those who take the time and effort to put these posts together, to post at all. It was similar disrespect that drove away fergieweather.

Dont take this the wrong way but its the MOAN thread..so , with that in mind i will moan til my hearts content

and now i feel bad with my post

I dont want to upset you or anyone else MP-R , think its just im sick of the weather we get in this neck of the woods and it genuinlly gets me down from time to time.

 

Edited December 19, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Ice Man 85]

If there's any credibility in this article:

https://weather.com/en-GB/unitedkingdom/weather/news/2017-12-19-uk-weather-higher-temperatures-three-monthsnew-year

We might as well abandon all hope now. Those that haven't already that is...

[northwestsnow]

29 minutes ago, Ice Man 85 said:

If there's any credibility in this article:

https://weather.com/en-GB/unitedkingdom/weather/news/2017-12-19-uk-weather-higher-temperatures-three-monthsnew-year

We might as well abandon all hope now. Those that haven't already that is...

I for one have abandoned all hope- 

Looks like whoever has written that article has too...

The fact remains we are in a cycle of mild winters.

Last few winters we have had el nino/ la nina/ wqbo / eqbo etc etc etc- it all results in the same thing broadly speaking , a +NAO .........Seeing as its the moan thread i think coldies in the uk, or indeed summer lovers have a LOT to moan about..

Edited December 19, 2017 by northwestsnow

[Ice Man 85]

The outlook's non-to-bright on the models tonight. Not a snowflake to be seen.

Other than ensembles in isolation, the big day's looking green...

The winds'll be howling with the swirling storms outside.

Couldn't keep the cold. Heaven knows we tried...

[Daniel*]

16 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I for one have abandoned all hope- 

Looks like whoever has written that article has too...

The fact remains we are in a cycle of mild winters.

Last few winters we have had el nino/ la nina/ wqbo / eqbo etc etc etc- it all results in the same thing broadly speaking , a +NAO .........Seeing as its the moan thread i think coldies in the uk, or indeed summer lovers have a LOT to moan about..

Cycles are not permanent nor are they really a thing we haven’t had a E-QBO in a while so incorrect. I have abandoned all hope that folk like yourself can see sense.. 

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Cycles are not permanent nor are they really a thing we haven’t had a E-QBO in a while so incorrect. I have abandoned all hope that folk like yourself can see sense.. 

I never said cycles are permanent Daniel-

If you are going to indulge in insults thats fine- i have no intention of doing the same.

Have a nice day.

[Daniel*]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

I never said cycles are permanent Daniel-

If you are going to indulge in insults thats fine- i have no intention of doing the same.

Have a nice day.

Not aiming to be insulting - I feel you let your emotions get the better of you. 

[northwestsnow]

5 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not aiming to be insulting - I feel you let your emotions get the better of you. 

No worries Daniel- 

I wouldn't disagree with you

(But it is the moan thread afterall).

[Daniel*]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

No worries Daniel- 

I wouldn't disagree with you

(But it is the moan thread afterall).

Feel free to moan away it’s the thread for it lol  don’t mind me grumpy Dan this evening.