Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Hammer50]

It mowed here at 6.30 this morning.essex.

[Hammer50]

Snowed 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Gord said:

That is an incredibly bold statement to make. I respect all opinions as is proper on a forum where we discuss a science. But you may need to be prepared for a backlash with that one. 

You don't know how much I want to be proven incorrect, plus, I have no sciemce to support my view, merely observations of recent setups and instinct.  I think two winter patterns are the new normal - either a strong zonal setup as we had in 2013/14 and again last winter, or the current, Euro high/Greenland low pattern with mild anticyclonicity, with occasional frosts if ridging extends far enough to the north to cut off a returning tropical maritime flow.

[Spikey M]

1 minute ago, Gord said:

Put it this way, how many more times have we hit 100F since August 2003?!

When I (pretty stupidly in hind sight) took that post serioisly it was full of so many ridiculous statements that I didn't even know what to address. 

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

1 hour ago, stainesbloke said:

Really. Maybe time to pop out and do something fun? 

I'm going to later.  I'm not miserable about it (though I do find it a touch depressing), but am ever more convinced that it's the way we're going.  In fact, with the state of the NHS at present, mild winters are very handy - regional hospitals in my area are at crisis point now for around half the year, so all it would take would be one snowy winter, and the system would collapse completely.

Edited December 31, 2016 by chrisbell-nottheweatherman
Correcting typos.

[Gustywind]

4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

Those winters were a brief and final aberration.  From now on, the pattern is set.

1 hour ago, Gord said:

Yep, lowland snow in Britain is complete history. Just like we said it was during winter 2008.

A bit like after that amazing August 13 years ago we can expect somewhere to reach 100F every year from now on. July 2006 also told us that British summers would always be hot from now on.

Last winter we learnt that every British winter will be wet and stormy from now on...

...see where I'm going with this?

 

 

I know what you mean Gord, however if you also agree that snow in lowland UK has always been marginal, and that global temperatures are slowly but steadily rising, then net result is a reduced incidence of snow and cold.

Thats before you take into account the impact on Synoptics of global warming, such as how hard it seems to be these days to achieve a negative NAO these days.

I'm confident we'll see a proper cold spell with snow in lowland UK before this winter ends (early Feb I reckon), however I wouldn't be surprised if snow is more or less consigned to history books for central and southern lowland England, within the next 25 years.

[Spikey M]

3 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

You don't know how much I want to be proven incorrect, plus, I have no sciemce to support my view, merely observations of recent setups and instinct.  I think two winter patterns are the new normal - either a strong zonal setup as we had in 2013/14 and again last winter, or the current, Euro high/Greenland low pattern with mild anticyclonicity, with occasional frosts if ridging extends far enough to the north to cut off a returning tropical maritime flow.

I absolutely guarantee you are incorrect. Congratulations.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

Just now, Spikey M said:

I absolutely guarantee you are incorrect. Congratulations.

I don't mean a couple of flakes being blown around in the wind, I mean snow that stays on the ground for more than an hour before melting.

[Gord]

Just now, Spikey M said:

When I (pretty stupidly in hind sight) took that post serioisly it was full of so many ridiculous statements that I didn't even know what to address. 

But they're all statements that have been made by 'experts' at some point! The fact that you initially took it seriously shows just how many of these statements get thrown around here. Can't tell who's being serious! 

[Bristawl Si]

4 minutes ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

You don't know how much I want to be proven incorrect, plus, I have no sciemce to support my view, merely observations of recent setups and instinct.  I think two winter patterns are the new normal - either a strong zonal setup as we had in 2013/14 and again last winter, or the current, Euro high/Greenland low pattern with mild anticyclonicity, with occasional frosts if ridging extends far enough to the north to cut off a returning tropical maritime flow.

Agreed.

I've mentioned a couple of times this Wintertime that winters 09/10 and 10/11 were just blips in an otherwise underwhelming 20 years of Winters (down South at least).

[stainesbloke]

Just now, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

I'm going to later.  I'm not miserableabout it (thouggh I do find it a ouch depressing, but am ever more convinced that it's the way we're going.  In fact, with the state of the NHS at present, mild winters are very handy - regional hospitals in my area are at crisis point now for around half the year, so all it would take would be one snowy winter, and the system would collapse completely.

Well that's good then, no point getting too depressed as there is two-thirds of winter to go and it is this period of winter that is coldest/snowiest. With many background factors so very different to recent years I'd be very surprised if we didn't get a decent cold spell. Anyway, Happy New Year! 

[Norrona2015]

5 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Agreed.

I've mentioned a couple of times this Wintertime that winters 09/10 and 10/11 were just blips in an otherwise underwhelming 20 years of Winters (down South at least).

I'd suggest the same for NE Scotland. The last 20 years, excluding the winters you make reference to, have generally been dire.

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

7 minutes ago, stainesbloke said:

Anyway, Happy New Year! 

Indeed!

[radiohead]

[pegg24]

3 minutes ago, radiohead said:

We knew it would happen.

[snowray]

1 hour ago, Hammer50 said:

It mowed here at 6.30 this morning.essex.

There were in fact snow symbols around Bedford on the METO radar the night before last I think it was.

Faux fog snow maybe.

 

Bit more interest on the 12zs for tomorrow evening, bit of sleet or snow possible for some.

[78/79]

38 years ago tonight was the New Years Eve blizzard of 78, here's hoping the youngsters can have a little  taste this year of what I used to enjoy .

[Bristawl Si]

1 minute ago, 78/79 said:

38 years ago tonight was the New Years Eve blizzard of 78, here's hoping the youngsters can have a little  taste this year of what I used to enjoy .

Amazing blizzard. Prob most severe i've experienced. Left 6ft snow drifts in the suburb of Bristol i was living in and only 4 miles from Bristol city centre.

What followed over the next few weeks was consecutive weekend blizzards. Biting East/SE winds, powder snow and below freezing temps.

Legendary stuff!

[78/79]

7 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Amazing blizzard. Prob most severe i've experienced. Left 6ft snow drifts in the suburb of Bristol i was living in and only 4 miles from Bristol city centre.

What followed over the next few weeks was consecutive weekend blizzards. Biting East/SE winds, powder snow and below freezing temps.

Legendary stuff!

I was living in Cheddar then,all the roads out were blocked.  I can remember a real biting east wind.

[Froze were the Days]

2 hours ago, chrisbell-nottheweatherman said:

You don't know how much I want to be proven incorrect, plus, I have no sciemce to support my view, merely observations of recent setups and instinct.  I think two winter patterns are the new normal - either a strong zonal setup as we had in 2013/14 and again last winter, or the current, Euro high/Greenland low pattern with mild anticyclonicity, with occasional frosts if ridging extends far enough to the north to cut off a returning tropical maritime flow.

Yes I agree with that and certainly for our tiny Islands - at times watching the winter synoptics of the Northern Hemisphere and by that I mainly mean North Atlantic/Iberia/Greenland/Europe, the Atlantic is filled with low pressure or developing lows (other than the Azore high) and most of Europe (particularly to the south) filled with high pressure with slight variations. This equating to mild or very mild conditions but as we've seen so far this winter a laxing of the jetstream and a stronger ridge or bubble of high pressure closer to us and hence the dry December, minor variations on this theme which largely don't occur for long.

Sorry for the laymans approach but this might be obvious for some but  noticed this in particular since the winter of and including 2013/14.

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 hours ago, shotski said:

I think he agrees with you!!

on another note,can anyone tell me from what year this ceefax page is from ?

2nd was a Thursday in 2010? but ceefax going then? I always associate ceefax as childhood, or in the days of guaranteed winters

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Need no science Gordon! I and virtually everyone I know can see it from our very own eyes, snow and cold spells are becoming less and less in Stafford

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

2nd was a Thursday in 2010? but ceefax going then? I always associate ceefax as childhood, or in the days of guaranteed winters

Possible CEEFAX finished back in Oct 2013.

[cyclonic happiness]

25 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

2nd was a Thursday in 2010? but ceefax going then? I always associate ceefax as childhood, or in the days of guaranteed winters

Ceefax forecasts always seemed to be more accurate than anything in the past 10 years. I used to religiously watch them

[Dancerwithwings]

1 minute ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Ceefax forecasts always seemed to be more accurate than anything in the past 10 years. I used to religiously watch them

That's all we had back then

Those were the days.....all different colours    A BAND OF HEAVY SNOW LATER -1   and not a dew point insight