Model Moans, Ramps and Banter

[Buzz]

I'll never understand most people in the model threads - they so often look too far ahead on the model outputs and think that whatever is showing is set in stone; once those outputs are almost inevitably proved to be wrong then they wail and gnash their teeth, toys are thrown out of prams, wrists are slit, etc. Many also tend to follow the snow/cold rampers and have a good moan when they too are usually wrong.

Why do so many people do this to themselves? Are they masochists? Do they get some kind of pleasure from torturing themselves? This has been going on for years and the "oldies" here don't seem to learn their lesson while the "newbies" are then lead along by their noses and also end up having a good wail when the snow and ice fails to arrive.

I never take much notice of any model output beyond three days, that approach generally serves me very well and doesn't result in any disappointments whatsoever. More people would be wise to adopt this approach.

Note: I'm not saying don't look further ahead than three days, but stop taking that output as set in stone - it's not, very far from it. And stop hoping for severe cold and blizzards too, they are pretty rare in the south of UK at least.

Stop hoping for diamonds as you'll usually end up with a lump of coal.

[shotski]

6 hours ago, markyo said:

Very strange,in my neck of the woods the temps are showing half what you are saying,only 30 odd miles from you. Max next sunday is 3c!! 

Was just about to say the same thing, my extended forecast is all below average out to next Monday. Maximum of 3c for me next Monday, hardly gardening weather ? 

Edited January 1, 2017 by shotski

[V for Very Cold]

Well I'm not sure what happened...nipped out for an hour an came back to find the forecast temps had dropped through the floorwhat on Earth is going on with the models ATM ???

[radiohead]

12Z GFS and GEFS raised spirits and the 12Z ECM shot them down in flames...

[cyclonic happiness]

1 hour ago, Buzz said:

I'll never understand most people in the model threads - they so often look too far ahead on the model outputs and think that whatever is showing is set in stone; once those outputs are almost inevitably proved to be wrong then they wail and gnash their teeth, toys are thrown out of prams, wrists are slit, etc. Many also tend to follow the snow/cold rampers and have a good moan when they too are usually wrong.

Why do so many people do this to themselves? Are they masochists? Do they get some kind of pleasure from torturing themselves? This has been going on for years and the "oldies" here don't seem to learn their lesson while the "newbies" are then lead along by their noses and also end up having a good wail when the snow and ice fails to arrive.

I never take much notice of any model output beyond three days, that approach generally serves me very well and doesn't result in any disappointments whatsoever. More people would be wise to adopt this approach.

Note: I'm not saying don't look further ahead than three days, but stop taking that output as set in stone - it's not, very far from it. And stop hoping for severe cold and blizzards too, they are pretty rare in the south of UK at least.

Stop hoping for diamonds as you'll usually end up with a lump of coal.

Most of us in the southern UK aren't asking for blizzards and bitter cold, a bit of snow falling from the sky, and maybe even sticking around for 24 hours, that's all most of us want, seeing as we've not had it for over 3 years.

It's not a big ask

[Iceaxecrampon]

FI showing snowmaggedon 10 days out again.

Yawn

[Frost HoIIow]

A tad chilly for Greece late this week  it's like their own version of Dec 2010.

 

[snowray]

2 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Most of us in the southern UK aren't asking for blizzards and bitter cold, a bit of snow falling from the sky, and maybe even sticking around for 24 hours, that's all most of us want, seeing as we've not had it for over 3 years.

It's not a big ask

Yes, a covering of white particularly over the Christmas period would be just right, some on here would love weeks of blizzards of course and I admit that I like some extreme weather, I think that on the whole though that many would change their minds if we did get a repeat 1947 or 1963. I guess that its the fun of it, you know spotting some extreme weather event out past 3 days and it coming into the reliable, many times I have said to myself stick to the UKMO and FAX charts so 6 days but you always want to see more. I remember the old weather for the week ahead forecasts in the 80's, they covered the week from Sunday and rarely could forecast snow accurately a week out, but I wanted to know what it was going to be like the week after that even though it was going to be complete la la land.

 

[ribster]

Just for fun, I'm expecting the period 16th to 21st Jan to be noteworthy, we will see...

[I remember Atlantic 252]

Just now, ribster said:

Just for fun, I'm expecting the period 16th to 21st Jan to be noteworthy, we will see...

maybe, wet 'n' wild, 2-3 named storms likely

[mountain shadow]

2 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

Most of us in the southern UK aren't asking for blizzards and bitter cold, a bit of snow falling from the sky, and maybe even sticking around for 24 hours, that's all most of us want, seeing as we've not had it for over 3 years.

It's not a big ask

Same up here in Eastern NI. Apart from a flake in November it has been a barren few years.

[ribster]

11 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

maybe, wet 'n' wild, 2-3 named storms likely

Like I said, we will see...

[January Snowstorm]

I guess global warming should be factored into our winters too. It's been another record year for heat yet we come on looking for another 1962, year in year out. The reality is that snow is going to become a rare phenomenon going fwd. I mean even the poles are going through rapid ice melts.

Of course there's always 2010 where we had 2 winters on the bounce that the delivered. Take that year (s) out and you could say the last 25 haven't. A shocking stat but true...

What does intrigue me though is how and why did 2010 happen. I've often believed that the super powers can master weather modification. ( we know seeding causes rain for example?)

Are the playing a role in controlling hurricanes for example. Did the US government say enough was enough after New Orleans.....

Ye might think I'm going slightly crazy but think if any government believed they could control the weather and in doing so would save thousands of lives and millions of money don't you think they would do it.....

And of course they could never admit it because they would be uproar...strange too how that massive cane that was on course for Florida last Autumn suddenly veered off shore

Edited January 1, 2017 by January Snowstorm

[Aaki Khan]

Day 10 Day 10 Day 10 

[Frost HoIIow]

24 minutes ago, January Snowstorm said:

I guess global warming should be factored into our winters too. It's been another record year for heat yet we come on looking for another 1962, year in year out. The reality is that snow is going to become a rare phenomenon going fwd. I mean even the poles are going through rapid ice melts.

Of course there's always 2010 where we had 2 winters on the bounce that the delivered. Take that year (s) out and you could say the last 25 haven't. A shocking stat but true...

What does intrigue me though is how and why did 2010 happen. I've often believed that the super powers can master weather modification. ( we know seeding causes rain for example?)

Are the playing a role in controlling hurricanes for example. Did the US government say enough was enough after New Orleans.....

Ye might think I'm going slightly crazy but think if any government believed they could control the weather and in doing so would save thousands of lives and millions of money don't you think they would do it.....

You know you will get blasted on here for being a conspiracy nut. I see you're point though. Some people think the record heat in western Russia in 2010 was the result of weather modification. When you look at the run of temps in Moscow it's just plain odd. Minimum temp of 26C on the morning of 29th July. Max temp of 38C on the same day. A run of temps at or above 30C every single day without fail for over a month between early July and early August! That spell of weather must have been unbearable if you had no air con - the majority of Muscovites don't & live in cramped tower blocks that retain heat in Summer, so in an extreme Summer like that it must have been like living in an oven for over a month day and night. Coupled with the forest fires that billowed smoke every day into the city people couldn't have windows open either.

Edited January 1, 2017 by Frost HoIIow

[Carl46Wrexham]

Whenever the words Day 10 and potential keep appearing but wintry weather doesn't then you just know in the pit of your stomach that it's going to be one of those years...again. You can't rationally explain why...you just know from bitter experience...as the Greeks get all the frigid cold weather again...the U.K. meanwhile...the front loaded winter that never was. And the days pass...

And the clock...very quietly at this stage...almost inaudible but you can sense it...the ticking. It's January..the days slowly...slowly lengthening....

Edited January 1, 2017 by Carl46Wrexham

[I remember Atlantic 252]

3 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Whenever the words Day 10 and potential keep appearing but wintry weather doesn't then you just know in the pit of your stomach that it's going to be one of those years...again. You can't rationally explain why...you just know from bitter experience...as the Greeks get all the frigid cold weather again...the U.K. meanwhile...the front loaded winter that never was. And the days pass...

And the clock...very quietly at this stage...almost inaudible but you can sense it...the ticking. It's January..the days slowly...slowly lengthening....

can only agree, it's FI for a reason though, but sure if day 10 was mild/average it'll come off

[pegg24]

So we are saying global warming everything warming up but then Greece gets the snow and we get nothing. So a Warmer country then us gets snow you couldn't make it up the Sahara had more snow than us lol.

I know the jet streams play s a part in our  weather but bloody Greece lol

Edited January 1, 2017 by pegg24

[MP-R]

11 minutes ago, Carl46Wrexham said:

Whenever the words Day 10 and potential keep appearing but wintry weather doesn't then you just know in the pit of your stomach that it's going to be one of those years...again. You can't rationally explain why...you just know from bitter experience...as the Greeks get all the frigid cold weather again...the U.K. meanwhile...the front loaded winter that never was. And the days pass...

And the clock...very quietly at this stage...almost inaudible but you can sense it...the ticking. It's January..the days slowly...slowly lengthening....

The frustrating thing is knowing that the synoptics over Greece at the moment would deliver something much more special over here. Looking at the temperatures at the altitude that the majority live at there, they're nothing that impressive. Lower down and the same for Turkey, there's just been shed loads of rain and flooding.

[Snow Slave]

9 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

2 snowless Decembers in a row shocking.

This will be our 4th snowless winter in the far south east Kent.  

My now 5 year old daughter hasnt even seen any snow yet!

The situation is beyond dire.

If we go another winter with no snow my next holiday will be to somewhere that has snow cover just so i can get a snow fix....

[Carl46Wrexham]

That cold front today...what the hell was that all about? Years gone by, and I know this as fact not only from my own memory but also from diary entries I made,,situations such as overnight/this morning in years gone by would have (not always but mostly) delivered a decent back edge snow event, even down to modest elevations. Today? Cold rain...even by some accounts I have heard at in places 1000 feet above sea level. What gives? And why dont we get snow from westerlies anymore? We sure as hell used to. What has changed? Global warming? Nope not buying that one...not when the likes of Greece and even the Sahara Desert gets snowfall. Unless Global Warming is a purely UK phenomenon.

Edited January 1, 2017 by Carl46Wrexham

[reef]

Background warming of 0.5C-1.0C makes more marginal situations that might have delivered in the past less likely to deliver, but its not the reason we're not having much luck now. If anything its synoptic, just like it was when we had poor winters in the past. The globe hasn't warmed much since 2010 when we had the last sub-zero month, but we're currently locked into a pattern of a Pacific ridge driving cold air down into the US and out into the Atlantic, encouraging strongly zonal weather. Where the jet ultimately lies depends on whether you get a 2015/16 train of depressions or a Dec 2016 style high pressure dominated winter. The setup is fundamentally the same though. The other elephant in the room is the strong warming of the pole which means the cold air to tap into is warmer than before, has to travel across warmer seas to get here and also has to travel for a longer distance over seas aswell (the ice edge to our North is actually still remarkably close to the pole). Its pretty much a triple whammy at the moment.

You could perhaps argue that in a warmer climate poor synoptics for the UK are more likely, but if anything, over time as the Pole warms more and the thermal gradient is less between the Arctic and lower latitudes it could arguably give us a better chance of a colder winter than now. No one really knows in all honesty.

The current period is certainly unusual here though. We're on exactly 4 years since the last measurable lying snow. We've previously never gone even three years without any.

Edited January 2, 2017 by reef

[cheese]

4 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

You know you will get blasted on here for being a conspiracy nut. I see you're point though. Some people think the record heat in western Russia in 2010 was the result of weather modification. When you look at the run of temps in Moscow it's just plain odd. Minimum temp of 26C on the morning of 29th July. Max temp of 38C on the same day. A run of temps at or above 30C every single day without fail for over a month between early July and early August! That spell of weather must have been unbearable if you had no air con - the majority of Muscovites don't & live in cramped tower blocks that retain heat in Summer, so in an extreme Summer like that it must have been like living in an oven for over a month day and night. Coupled with the forest fires that billowed smoke every day into the city people couldn't have windows open either.

I don't wish to offend, but that's exactly what he is. I'm really disappointed that this kind of nonsense is being posted on here - I'd expect better from this forum. I thought we were rational individuals rather than the kind of crazies who go around shouting about chemwebs?

Edited January 2, 2017 by cheese

[Evening thunder]

12 hours ago, January Snowstorm said:

I guess global warming should be factored into our winters too. It's been another record year for heat yet we come on looking for another 1962, year in year out. The reality is that snow is going to become a rare phenomenon going fwd. I mean even the poles are going through rapid ice melts.

Of course there's always 2010 where we had 2 winters on the bounce that the delivered. Take that year (s) out and you could say the last 25 haven't. A shocking stat but true...

What does intrigue me though is how and why did 2010 happen. I've often believed that the super powers can master weather modification. ( we know seeding causes rain for example?)

Are the playing a role in controlling hurricanes for example. Did the US government say enough was enough after New Orleans.....

Ye might think I'm going slightly crazy but think if any government believed they could control the weather and in doing so would save thousands of lives and millions of money don't you think they would do it.....

And of course they could never admit it because they would be uproar...strange too how that massive cane that was on course for Florida last Autumn suddenly veered off shore

I agree with the top bit about GW and 1962, but even some cold spells like 2012/13, 2008/9 2006, 2005, 2003, 2000/1 (think that's right), 1996/7 would be nice.. I.e a bit of snow and some good frosts (even if I don't really rate 2013 locally). What this spell has been downgraded to now in my location is one decent frost tonight, where cloud might still come in before dawn! Some knowledgeable posters are saying we've basically been as unlucky as it was possible to be.

With the amount of eye candy the models have shown when modelling with our current global warmth, I think that shows that decent spells are still reasonably possible unless they have a serious flaw, as did 2009/10 and 2013

2010 happened because things went right for once, still wasn't as severe as events in the past (though Dec 10 was up there, but perfectly possible naturally).

The Hurricane off Florida only turned slightly and well within the envelope of forecast track, but that was just enough to keep the eye offshore until it weakened.

What I don't get, is how would e.g. chucking some particles out of the plane 'move' a whole weather system against the atmospheric flow to where ever you wanted it to go?

Though the amount of bad luck this winter Made me think as an internal joke, maybe they somehow make the Azores low behave in just that way to get us out of cold yet again (I don't really think that!!! lol)

Edited January 2, 2017 by Evening thunder

[shotski]

10 hours ago, pegg24 said:

So we are saying global warming everything warming up but then Greece gets the snow and we get nothing. So a Warmer country then us gets snow you couldn't make it up the Sahara had more snow than us lol.

I know the jet streams play s a part in our  weather but bloody Greece lol

But it's not unusual for Greece to be colder than us during the winter months, it's attached to a huge landmass that is normally frigid cold this time of year so Greece in the freezer is a pretty regular thing. I'm sure I read their record lowest temp was below -27 :-)

Edited January 2, 2017 by shotski