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Model output discussion - 5th December 2016 - Into Winter we go

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, booferking said:

That,s what we want to hear cheers GP.:santa-emoji:

Definitely, lets hope he's correct and this time tomorrow things start looking a whole lot better. 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted
1 minute ago, booferking said:

Sorry if you thought that was meant for you i just meant it in general going forward this is the best way forward, I just got in from a golf outing looked at the GFS never read any posts from above.:):santa-emoji:

Lol! No worries I agree with you. I'm fed up of Scandi teases and want something to deliver some snow to the mountains here. I'm hoping to surprise my friends down for Christmas with a husky ride and currently the snow level is too high so want rid of the Euro high.

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted (edited)
15 minutes ago, Glacier Point said:

To add an extra layer of difficulty for NWP...

Another shift in tropical forcing. Latest (12z) run data shows a marked westward shift in some of the tropical forcing fractions to the Horn of Africa. Convective anomalies also in the Western Pacific. That's MJO phases 6-7-8 if you like that sort of simplicity. It may take up to 24hrs for models to fully assimilate this.

last.90d.RMMPhase_VP200.jpg NCPE_phase_21m_full (2).jpg 

Hadn't noticed the new trend of the ens to move out of COD into phase 8, but thanks for highlighting this positive step in the right direction to perhaps shake up the wave patterns later this month to encourage more HLBs again. Still some uncertainties in the tropics, so not holding my breath until we see some solid changes in the NWP.

Edited by Nick F
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Captain Shortwave Maestro

Captain Shortwave

Posted
  • Location: Peterborough
  • Weather Preferences: Snow and frost in the winter. Hot and sunny, thunderstorms in the summer.
  • Location: Peterborough
Posted (edited)

The 12z suite shows a much more complex Atlantic trough which could have ramifications in the mid term. Day 4 and 5 charts from the ECM.

ECM1-96.GIF?08-0

We have two secondary lows both running up towards Iceland, the second one pushes warm air north west which actually causes a split flow with that smaller trough over Iceland, so we see some cold pooling and a cut off low move south east close to the UK as opposed to 24 hours ago where the ridge simply rebuilds as the  main Atlantic trough moves eastwards.

ECM1-120.GIF?08-0

The shallow trough is still visible running down the north sea with a shall surface low close to Shetland, the GFS makes a bigger deal of this split flow and hence gets heights further north and pushes a large pool of cold air into eastern Europe later on in the run.

Corresponding charts from the GFS

gfs-0-96.png?12   gfs-0-120.png?12

The 12z ECM op looks better, but probably not enough to make much of a change but there are a few things to watch for.

Edited by Captain Shortwave
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The GEFS 12z mean shows there is strong support for an increasingly anticyclonic spell returning next week, especially from later next week until christmas bringing a largely settled outlook into the mid range with overnight frost and fog and crisp bright days but fog could again mean particularly cold days where it lingers with borderline ice days like some of us saw last week..it could be a cold christmas.:santa-emoji:

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Edited by Frosty.
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Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted

Well, not a great ECM or GFS in the last few hours. Hoped to build on this mornings but they didn't. Can the ECM ENS bring some joy I wonder!! 

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nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
Posted

Dismal continuity from the ECM with yet another different NH pattern compared to its earlier 00hrs run. At this point we're left with the MJO saving us because something needs to shake up the current rut.

We need that to get its skates on and get out of the COD into a more favourable phase.

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Ali1977 said:

Well, not a great ECM or GFS in the last few hours. Hoped to build on this mornings but they didn't. Can the ECM ENS bring some joy I wonder!! 

No need to worry, Ali - I'm sure that both the NAVGEM and the BOM will deliver. It's getting to that time of year again?:good:

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
1 minute ago, Ed Stone said:

No need to worry, Ali - I'm sure that both the NAVGEM and the BOM will deliver. It's getting to that time of year again?:good:

Don't forget the JMA:D

Right now I would settle for a chilly settled outlook as the gefs continues to show with plenty of frosts!:santa-emoji:

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Nick F Maestro

Nick F

Posted
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
  • Location: Caterham-on-the-hill, Surrey, 190m asl (home), Heathrow (work)
Posted

Yep, we're reaching rock bottom with the 12 EC det. this evening, the EC/EPS MJO forecasts pretty incoherent today as well.  EC46    may offer light at at the end of the tunnel later ... question is will GFS/GEFS give up the blocked signal or will EC move away from its more zonal outlook. At least there are these differences between the 2 models that hint at uncertainty from the medium range.

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

Look at that low crossing the southern U.S. early-mid next week. It's so fast on the ECM and UKMO runs despite having to overcome a marked ridge ahead of it... does that seem excessive to anyone else or is it just me?

Its an important detail as a faster arrival directs energy into the N arm of the jet - hence over our ridge - before disruption of the trough beforehand is able to occur. Notice the small shortwave shooting over the ridge whereas GFS drops it down west of the ridge.

Not often we see GFS favouring the S arm of the jet in a split setup when the other models are having nothing to do with it!

NCEP discussion may be revealing  this eve - hint hint Nick; you're the go-to source for this ;)

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted
3 minutes ago, Matthew Wilson said:

The ECM is one of them runs where the washing will never dry scenario. Anyway at least the LP are off to the NW, a league or 2 away:pardon:

An instantly forgettable Ecm 12z..give me the Gefs mean which looks much more settled in the run up to and potentially including christmas.

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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

This is what I feared the ecm would look like tonight after witnessing this morning's run. Coldies really need gfs op and control to be on the money here with those scandi heights at 144hrs. We can build on that. The reset (atlantic breaking through) is NOT what we want to see. We could end up with weeks of dross zonality and to be honest, I for one have had enough of that over the last few winters.

Edited by blizzard81
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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)

But with so much uncertainty even in the Ensembles at relatively short timescales, is it surprising that we have a mixed bag of Ops at the moment? Not to me it isn't. Tonight the Pub run could spew out the coldest run of winter, but it would not be cause for celebration and dusting the sledges off, because the same applies. Until we start to see some consistency in the Ens mid range and the Op within 7 days, I don't think we can have any confidence on the outlook. Fascinating times. Sorry if that's stating the obvious!

By day 6 the Ens start splitting, one member going very cold.

 

graphe3_1000_306_141___Londres.gif

Edited by karlos1983
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blizzard81 Maestro

blizzard81

Posted
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
  • Location: Heckmondwike, West Yorkshire
Posted (edited)

A quick question for GP if he would oblige. I know your thoughts a few days ago alluded to a scandi high then some form of retrogression which then leads to a raising of heights to our north west. Is this how you still see things developing, especially in light of tonight's gfs op and control showing a scandi high. Or do you expect an atlantic breakdown first with no scandi heights?

Edited by blizzard81
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Scandinavian High. Experienced

Scandinavian High.

Posted
  • Location: Orpington Kent
  • Weather Preferences: Snow freezing rain heat waves
  • Location: Orpington Kent
Posted
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

But with so much uncertainty even in the Ensembles at relatively short timescales, is it surprising that we have a mixed bag of Ops at the moment? Not to me it isn't. Tonight the Pub run could spew out the coldest run of winter, but it would not be cause for celebration and dusting the sledges off, because the same applies. Until we start to see some consistency in the Ens mid range and the Op within 7 days, I don't think we can have any confidence on the outlook. Fascinating times. Sorry if that's stating the obvious!

Well said :)

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johncam Seasoned

johncam

Posted
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
  • Weather Preferences: snow in winter,warm sun in summer!!!!
  • Location: Coatbridge, Scotland 129 m
Posted

If the ECM is to believed then first 2/3 of Dec gone! :-(

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Matthew. Seasoned

Matthew.

Posted
  • Location: Marton
  • Location: Marton
Posted
1 minute ago, johncam said:

If the ECM is to believed then first 2/3 of Dec gone! :-(

Yes but not to forget the coldest winters develop Jan and Feb so a watching model scene for coldies and never forget winter 85/86.:hi:

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
Just now, Matthew Wilson said:

Yes but not to forget the coldest winters develop Jan and Feb so a watching model scene for coldies and never forget winter 85/86.:hi:

its irrelevant because one operational run does not wipe out two 3rd's of a month. 

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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, karlos1983 said:

its irrelevant because one operational run does not wipe out two 3rd's of a month. 

If any of the vast majority of the ECM ensembles verify then it will wipe out the whole month.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
3 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

If any of the vast majority of the ECM ensembles verify then it will wipe out the whole month.

well if they verify obviously its a different matter, but lets be honest, verifying hasn't been going so well recently has it!

Edited by karlos1983
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feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
Just now, karlos1983 said:

well if they verify obviously its a different matter, but lets be honest, verifying hasn't been going so sell recently has it!

No but that's when the models predicted blocking, when they're predicting mild, they will verify.

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

No but that's when the models predicted blocking, when they're predicting mild, they will verify.

well that's a brave call Feb, but I respect your opinion, I don't share it as a dead cert! Not yet by any stretch.

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