January becoming less snowy

[damianslaw]

Been a long time since we had a heavy snowfall (6 inch plus) in Jan that has stuck on the ground for some time thereafter. Last heavy snowfall was late Jan 2013 but it quickly thawed. Most of our snowfalls in Jan over the last 30 years have been modest at best, often no more than a couple of inches, usually due to cold northerly showery airstreams. To get a deep fall here we rely on frontal activity, and more often than not, in Jan frontal systems that bring snow quickly bring milder uppers from the west behind - just as occured in Jan 2013. Can't remember the last time we had a southerly tracking low pressure dropping through the UK and bringing snowfall to many on the northern flank - Jan 79 was a good example, but being honest it is a rare synoptic.

Looking at the outlook, I suspect we won't record one day snow cover this Jan, last week was very frustrating here, we were in the wrong place, and ended up with sugar coating at best that disappeared in minutes.

[sundog]

When it comes to jan, i think the second half of the month in particular is becoming snowless. At my location i have not seen good snowcover,or much at all of a snowcover during the second half of jan since the 80s. I have not experianced at my location a real proper cold spell during the second of jan not since the 80s aswell. 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

11 minutes ago, sundog said:

When it comes to jan, i think the second half of the month in particular is becoming snowless. At my location i have not seen good snowcover,or much at all of a snowcover during the second half of jan since the 80s. I have not experianced at my location a real proper cold spell during the second of jan not since the 80s aswell. 

Yes 2nd half definitely less snowy than 1st half, Feb even worse

[Relativistic]

I think this is true, but I would only put some of the blame on climate change. January has had mild phases in the past. I've plotted the 30-year January CET means through time. You can see that there have certainly been ups and downs; I think what is most notable however is how mild January was around 1900 (nearly as mild as at present), and how rapidly it dropped off soon after. Based on this graph, I think it's entirely possible that we are on a natural upward trend on top of a gradual warming trend caused by climate change. I wouldn't be surprised to see the average fall off again (as has happened before), but I suspect that should this occur the magnitude of the fall may be somewhat dampened by climate change.

Edited January 21, 2017 by Relativistic

[damianslaw]

2 hours ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

Yes 2nd half definitely less snowy than 1st half, Feb even worse

We nearly managed a solid cold second half in 2013, it was cold until the 27. The last 10 days of 1996 were cold (quite some time ago now), but yes we have struggled recently for any potent lengthy cold during the second half of the month, even 2010 returned a nearer average second half, likewise second half of 2009 was average after a cold first half. Indeed the second half of February has probably on average been colder than the second half of Jan over the past 20 years - worth seeing the stats, and first 10 days of March probably on a parallel as well - been many a cold end to Feb and start to March.

[Snowyowl9]

January 2015 brought snow edit 14 days with falling snow one day with 4inches and more snow 3 inches end of the month a 1984 style repeat.

People do forget.

 

Edited January 22, 2017 by Snowyowl9

[Magadan]

I haven't posted on here for something like 5-6 years, but continued to lurk all that time. But this is a subject close to my heart and was a contributory factor in agreeing to my wife's pleas to move to Latvia (her own motives were medical). I am now experiencing my first "real" winter in a long, long time and boy, it feels good. It snows here pretty much as frequently as it rains at home.

Anyway, does anyone subscribe to the theory that UK winters post WW2 until the late 1970s / early 1980s were cooler because of the debris kicked up by WW2? I have heard that idea, but am naturally more inclined to think it has to do with sun activity.

[hillbilly]

Just now, Magadan said:

I haven't posted on here for something like 5-6 years, but continued to lurk all that time. But this is a subject close to my heart and was a contributory factor in agreeing to my wife's pleas to move to Latvia (her own motives were medical). I am now experiencing my first "real" winter in a long, long time and boy, it feels good. It snows here pretty much as frequently as it rains at home.

Anyway, does anyone subscribe to the theory that UK winters post WW2 until the late 1970s / early 1980s were cooler because of the debris kicked up by WW2? I have heard that idea, but am naturally more inclined to think it has to do with sun activity.

I have not heard that one before but it has been said before that the early 80s winters were influenced by the Mt st helens eruption.I think that weather is certainly affected by volcanic activity  and is pretty much proven but with all the destruction in ww2 I can not see that matching the debris that gets thrown out of a volcano,maybe I am wrong.It certainly would not have affected weather in any way after a few years .

[Guest]

Had no lying snowfall in my area for two years, and when snowfall is forecasted it passes on and over to higher ground.  

[Relativistic]

On 21/01/2017 at 23:04, damianslaw said:

We nearly managed a solid cold second half in 2013, it was cold until the 27. The last 10 days of 1996 were cold (quite some time ago now), but yes we have struggled recently for any potent lengthy cold during the second half of the month, even 2010 returned a nearer average second half, likewise second half of 2009 was average after a cold first half. Indeed the second half of February has probably on average been colder than the second half of Jan over the past 20 years - worth seeing the stats, and first 10 days of March probably on a parallel as well - been many a cold end to Feb and start to March.

Defining the second half of January as 16th-31st, and the second half of February as 15th-28th/29th, the 1987-2016 averages for the second halves of these months are:

Jan: 4.5C
Feb: 5.1C

Some really mild second halves of February are dragging the average up here. The years 1990, 1997, 1998, 2007, 2009, 2012, and 2014 all recorded 7C+ for this period. Only the second halves of January 2002 and January 2008 managed to achieve the same feat during the 1987-2016 period.

Edited January 23, 2017 by Relativistic

[Magadan]

Another thing I have noticed living in Latvia is glaciated snow and patches of ice that kids can slide on. Back in my childhood in Northern Ireland and even into my teens, children used to make slides on the icy pavements; it seems that's another thing of the past for most of the British Isles, sad to say.

[Guest]

19 minutes ago, Magadan said:

Another thing I have noticed living in Latvia is glaciated snow and patches of ice that kids can slide on. Back in my childhood in Northern Ireland and even into my teens, children used to make slides on the icy pavements; it seems that's another thing of the past for most of the British Isles, sad to say.

I have family in Estonia. Usually the lake Peipus freezes over late November. This year, it froze over a week after christmas. Now January is bobbing over and under freezing frequently.

Edited January 26, 2017 by Guest

[Magadan]

Yes, the locals here are saying this winter is milder than usual, but we've had approximately 8 weeks of snow on the ground thanks to an unusually heavy snowfall in early November, but when the locals call this "mild" it would be considered epic cold by UK standards.