Model tweets

[Griff]

 

[Griff]

 

[Griff]

I'll have a glass of whatever he's had... 

 

[Froze were the Days]

As I say it's not the charts it his (PV-Forecast) wording...ramp ramp ramp, he just needs to tone it down.

[Bullseye]

What this means, see below. Fwiw Anthony is under the impression the SSW had temporarily put the progression of MJO phases on hold. 

 

[bluearmy]

12 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

As I say it's not the charts it his (PV-Forecast) wording...ramp ramp ramp, he just needs to tone it down.

It’s Denis ...... he never seemed particularly verbose when he posted on here ....but he was always rather cryptic ......maybe it’s just his English ....

[Griff]

13 hours ago, Froze were the Days said:

As I say it's not the charts it his (PV-Forecast) wording...ramp ramp ramp, he just needs to tone it down.

 

1 hour ago, bluearmy said:

It’s Denis ...... he never seemed particularly verbose when he posted on here ....but he was always rather cryptic ......maybe it’s just his English ....

More of an observation than a ramp at least! 

At least interest remains going forward, but will it ever happen? If it does.... 

 

[bluearmy]

35 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

More of an observation than a ramp at least! 

At least interest remains going forward, but will it ever happen? If it does.... 

 

It’s been modelled like that for week ....... unfortunately we don’t see that perfect imprint in the trop - broadly but the flow into the Atlantic too far north with the west based -NAO 

[Griff]

3 hours ago, bluearmy said:

It’s been modelled like that for week ....... unfortunately we don’t see that perfect imprint in the trop - broadly but the flow into the Atlantic too far north with the west based -NAO 

Hmm was modelled until very recently to be elongated across the Atlantic broadly west to east over the UK, this is a newish development, happy to be wrong or we've been looking at different charts? 

[bluearmy]

10 minutes ago, Griff said:

Hmm was modelled until very recently to be elongated across the Atlantic broadly west to east over the UK, this is a newish development, happy to be wrong or we've been looking at different charts? 

The vortex was modelled to stretch across the Atlantic sector and then around into asia as the ridge pushes against it 

then it splits under the stress ( as we have at the moment )

then after a couple days the Atlantic daughter heads anti clockwise (east ) around the ridge  to join the Asian stretched parent which leaves the ridge to push south into the vacated Atlantic sector - northerly in the strat 

we see this on NH trop output for next week but the Atlantic sector in the trop is still with the lw trough .....

[Griff]

3 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

The vortex was modelled to stretch across the Atlantic sector and then around into asia as the ridge pushes against it 

then it splits under the stress ( as we have at the moment )

then after a couple days the Atlantic daughter heads anti clockwise (east ) around the ridge  to join the Asian stretched parent which leaves the ridge to push south into the vacated Atlantic sector - northerly in the strat 

we see this on NH trop output for next week but the Atlantic sector in the trop is still with the lw trough .....

Here you go, this is what I meant, animation starts as it has been elongated since first warming, then going forward it shifts as per latest Denis tweet, before recovering, or do we have crossed wires? 

Or indeed it splits at the end? 

 

Edited January 17, 2021 by Griff

[bluearmy]

1 hour ago, Griff said:

Here you go, this is what I meant, animation starts as it has been elongated since first warming, then going forward it shifts as per latest Denis tweet, before recovering, or do we have crossed wires? 

Or indeed it splits at the end? 

 

The tweet from Dennis is for the 21st jan.  Judah’s tweet covers out to 31st and covers Denis’ chart in there. the gfs strat forecasts have been fairly decent. Your original comment on his tweet was ‘will it ever happen’?  My response was that it’s been well forecast and therefore, why wouldn’t it .......

[Griff]

 

[Windysun1]

8 minutes ago, Griff said:

 

Potentially mean what exactly for the uk??

[Griff]

7 minutes ago, Windysun1 said:

Potentially mean what exactly for the uk??

Million dollar question. Depends on many factors, no guarantees... 

I'd consider it a rolling of the dice that could favour colder weather. 

Keep expectations low! 

Sudden Stratospheric Warming

WWW.METOFFICE.GOV.UK

---

Sudden stratospheric warming describes an event when rapid warming occurs high up in the stratosphere. However, it can lead to changes in our weather at the surface.

 

 

 

[bluearmy]

2 hours ago, Griff said:

 

That daughter vortex over the states is almost the same height as the ridge! I doubt a split like that will have much effect as a split. Perhaps Ed might have a view ....

[Griff]

Guaranteed  

 

[Griff]

 

[Griff]

 

[Griff]

 

[Frostbite1980]

This all seems different to Marco's earlier tweet about major warmings coming to an end and the vortex coming recovering some what  

Edited January 18, 2021 by Frostbite1980

[Griff]

2 hours ago, Frostbite1980 said:

This all seems different to Marco's earlier tweet about major warmings coming to an end and the vortex coming recovering some what  

 

[Griff]

 

[Griff]

@bluearmy curious for your thoughts on this... Ta  

 

[Griff]