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Model output discussion 8th Feb - Cold for now, but then what?

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

Tonight's Gfs 18z shows 4 days coming up when temps could be into the low to mid teens celsius across southern uk between wed / sat and although there is likely to be a lot of cloud and even some patchy rain, the cloud could thin and break in places from time to time allowing sunny intervals so feeling nice and mild during the second half of this week further south.

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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
Just now, Frosty. said:

Tonight's Gfs 18z shows 4 days coming up when temps could be into the low to mid teens celsius across southern uk between wed / sat and although there is likely to be a lot of cloud and even some patchy rain, the cloud could thin and break in places from time to time allowing sunny intervals so feeling nice and mild during the second half of this week further south.

Is there any charts showing these breaks?

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

A very mild end to the Gfs 18z across southern uk with temps close to 60F.:)

18_336_uk2mtmp.png

18_360_uk2mtmp.png

18_384_uk2mtmp.png

18_360_mslp850.png

18_384_mslp850.png

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winterof79 Veteran

winterof79

Posted
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
  • Weather Preferences: Winter synoptics.Hot summers.
  • Location: Kirkburton, Huddersfield - 162.5mtrs asl.
Posted (edited)
8 hours ago, Frosty. said:

A very mild end to the Gfs 18z across southern uk with temps close to 60F.:)

18_336_uk2mtmp.png

18_360_uk2mtmp.png

18_384_uk2mtmp.png

18_360_mslp850.png

18_384_mslp850.png

Blocking mentioned by the Met always a recurring theme on models.Matt H on the strat thread adding to my feelings.ECM this morning and GFS the other day

 

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_ECM1-240.gif

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gfs-0-312.png

GEFS showing some interest mid month too

C__Data_Users_DefApps_AppData_INTERNETEXPLORER_Temp_Saved Images_gens_panel_hvg6.png

Edited by winterof79
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Plenty of mild weather on the Gfs 00z from tomorrow into next week, especially across southern uk with low teens, occasionally mid teens celsius..very spring-like, feeling pleasantly warm for march in any sunshine.

00_39_uk2mtmp.png

00_63_uk2mtmp.png

00_87_uk2mtmp.png

00_87_mslp850.png

00_87_ukcloud.png

00_111_uk2mtmp.png

00_159_uk2mtmp.png

00_183_uk2mtmp.png

00_183_mslp850.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The usual T+240 cold tease from the Ecm 00z but overall it's the word mild which springs to mind.

24_mslp850uk.png

48_mslp850uk.png

72_mslp850uk.png

96_mslp850uk.png

120_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850uk.png

192_mslp850uk.png

240_mslp850.png

240_mslp850uk.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Seasonality Accomplished

Seasonality

Posted
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
  • Weather Preferences: Four true seasons. Hot summers and cold winters.
  • Location: Warsaw, Poland. Formerly London.
Posted

Just for laughs, Spring on hold if this op run verified. 

 

gefsens850Warsaw_Poland0.png

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

UKMO extended shows high pressure slowly moving in early next week as the jet stream heads north so settling down for most by Tuesday

65454.thumb.png.9fa71044d5b19eeecffc1e5fbaa38f77.pngukm2.2017031400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ddd22037a70d6edf37bef91985318868.png

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

Generally speaking the Gem 00z is mild and changeable with just a few cooler days here and there..and no T+240 cold tease!:D

Some benign very pleasant weather at times.

GEMOPEU00_60_2.png

GEMOPEU00_84_2.png

GEMOPEU00_108_2.png

GEMOPEU00_132_2.png

GEMOPEU00_156_2.png

GEMOPEU00_180_2.png

GEMOPEU00_180_2.png

GEMOPEU00_204_2.png

GEMOPEU00_228_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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frosty ground Veteran

frosty ground

Posted
  • Location: oldham
  • Location: oldham
Posted
2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

UKMO extended shows high pressure slowly moving in early next week as the jet stream heads north so settling down for most by Tuesday

65454.thumb.png.9fa71044d5b19eeecffc1e5fbaa38f77.pngukm2.2017031400_168_lant.troplant_prp_fcst.gentracker.thumb.png.ddd22037a70d6edf37bef91985318868.png

So day 6 a low cloud and drizzle fest and day 7 maybe a bit brighter. 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted
Just now, frosty ground said:

So day 6 a low cloud and drizzle fest and day 7 maybe a bit brighter. 

Maybe though as these charts are 00z time by daylight hours things in the south could well be improving at D6 as the high moves closer 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted

All in all, nothing sinister lurking in the 00z woodshed this morning, it looks on the mild side for much of the next 10 days at least with some high / low pressure, the best of the weather generally further south.:) 

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Summer Sun Maestro

Summer Sun

Posted
  • Location: Darlington
  • Weather Preferences: Warm dry summers
  • Location: Darlington
Posted

Just to show how quickly the cold has downgraded

ECM last Saturday for this coming Sunday

ECH1-192.GIF?12ECH0-192.GIF?12

ECM this morning for Sunday

ECH1-120.GIF?07-12ECH0-120.GIF?07-12

GFS 06z is now running with a 1hr 30 delay

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

High pressure is quite influential on the Gfs 6z with a good deal of fine weather with slight frosts where skies clear but still with occasional fronts pushing in from the atlantic, early next week for example and daytime temps next week look a little cooler than the second half of this week which will become much milder, especially friday but saturday too in the s / e.. later in the run it becomes more unsettled and colder from the NW with a risk of snow on hills and night frosts...so it's a continuing changeable spell with some rain at times but also some lengthy fine periods and the mildest weather on this run is between tomorrow and saturday, especially for the south / southeast.

06_144_mslp500.png

06_168_mslp500.png

06_177_precipratec.png

06_201_mslp500.png

06_225_mslp500.png

06_240_mslp500.png

06_240_uk2mtmpmin.png

06_252_mslp500.png

06_288_mslp500.png

06_324_mslp500.png

06_324_preciptype.png

06_324_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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booferking Veteran

booferking

Posted
  • Location: Tyrone
  • Location: Tyrone
Posted
1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

Just to show how quickly the cold has downgraded

ECM last Saturday for this coming Sunday

ECH1-192.GIF?12ECH0-192.GIF?12

ECM this morning for Sunday

ECH1-120.GIF?07-12ECH0-120.GIF?07-12

GFS 06z is now running with a 1hr 30 delay

That's brilliant who wants cold sleet in March roll on spring it's a winter to forget..

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)
3 hours ago, booferking said:

 roll on spring it's a winter to forget..

spring has sprung:D

06_33_uk2mtmp.png

06_57_uk2mtmp.png

06_81_uk2mtmp.png

06_105_uk2mtmp.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Polar Maritime Maestro

Polar Maritime

Posted
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
  • Location: Derbyshire Peak District South Pennines Middleton & Smerrill Tops 305m (1001ft) asl.
Posted

Just sensible model output discussion please in here, There is the model banter/moan thread for anything else.

Thanks please continue.

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Singularity Maestro

Singularity

Posted
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
  • Weather Preferences: Fascinated by extreme weather. Despise drizzle.
  • Location: New Forest (Western)
Posted

High pressure is even more influential during Sat-Tue on the 12z GFS run with Sunday much drier overall than had been shown, due to what was a sliding low now being held away by a ridge from the Azores.

Its a good trend if you fancy more pleasant spring weather and ECM has been heading in a similar direction. Could be a fair bit of cloud to get rid of this weekend though and there is that risk of the ridge building far enough SE to set up a chilly easterly flow by mid-late next week.

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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted (edited)

Really disappointing sets of charts for my location..staying cold or very cold right through until the last week of March..no sign of spring.

Edited by cheeky_monkey
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cheeky_monkey Maestro

cheeky_monkey

Posted
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
  • Weather Preferences: Sunshine and 15-25c
  • Location: Edmonton Alberta(via Chelmsford, Exeter & Calgary)
Posted
5 hours ago, Summer Sun said:

Just to show how quickly the cold has downgraded

ECM last Saturday for this coming Sunday

ECH1-192.GIF?12ECH0-192.GIF?12

ECM this morning for Sunday

ECH1-120.GIF?07-12ECH0-120.GIF?07-12

GFS 06z is now running with a 1hr 30 delay

 

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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

High pressure builds in at T+144 on both the ukmo / Gem 12z, indeed the gem looks increasingly mild next week and largely settled further south..very pleasant for mid March..cold snap..wot cold snap!:D

UKMOPEU12_144_1.png

GEMOPEU12_144_1.png

GEMOPEU12_168_1.png

GEMOPEU12_192_1.png

GEMOPEU12_192_2.png

Edited by Frosty.
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Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

LOL I forgot about the Gfs 12z !..cold snap and snow alert:help::shok:

12_216_preciptype.png

12_228_uk2mtmpmin.png

12_252_preciptype.png

Edited by Frosty.
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lassie23 Maestro

lassie23

Posted
  • Location: NW LONDON
  • Weather Preferences: Sun, sleet, Snow
  • Location: NW LONDON
Posted

I think the GFS is under the weather and spewing out nonsense, mild and fairly settled seems to be the way forward.

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