Model Output Discussions 12z 08/03/17

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 12z looks very nice across most of the uk to coincide with next weekend..let us pray

Edited March 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

It starts to go downhill from the south and then west after next weekend but at least the Ecm 12z gives most of the uk a pleasant anticyclonic weekend to look forward to..I'm a bit disappointed with this run, it's less cold than the 00z for the week ahead and I don't like the T+240 chart..am hoping the block will hold the Atlantic at bay when the time comes!

Edited March 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

On the face of it, the GEFS 12z mean shows a generally anticyclonic spell from next weekend through to the end of March with the emphasis on largely dry fine weather with variable amounts of cloud / sunshine and respectable daytime temps but with cold nights where skies clear with frosts and fog.

Edited March 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[ANYWEATHER]

Evening All! Expect some Bitter Cold in the next few days and I think the weather will be making news headlines for some very interesting weather.! Some parts of the Uk will see the coldest conditions of Winter with rain, sleet ,snow , hail and thunder along with gusty winds and perhaps a small Tornado. March will feel like a lion this week, showing that March is the most Fickle of months and the the most volatile . I was reading on here that March is like September.... That's utter rubbish , generally September is a benign month , March is completely different. Anyway folks enjoy the show!!! 

[Frosty.]

With respect, I think using the words bitter cold are OTT.

[Frosty.]

I would settle for the Ecm 12z ensemble mean since it looks settled from next weekend or a tad before with high pressure bringing generally pleasant spring days with some sunshine and chilly nights where skies clear with frost and fog patches..just trending unsettled across the far n / w by day 10.

Edited March 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[Fourty Point Three Degrees]

Todays bbc weather for the week ahead looks confident of a good build of High pressure for the bulk of the UK next weekend and into the following week. This time its London and the south east remaining wet and windy for once!!

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 18z shows a nationwide settled spell next weekend under high pressure with plenty of sunshine, light winds apart from the far south and feeling pleasant by day but with chilly nights and a touch of frost, just some thin high cloud at times..into the following week also looks predominantly fine and mild with sunny spells and pressure staying high, actually it becomes rather warm in the south..a decent break from the atlantic would be welcome..by me anyway 

Edited March 19, 2017 by Frosty.

[andymusic]

only problem with this dry sort of weather this time of the year is it'll get the idiots who like to start grass fires out of hibernation on the mountainsides of wales - flipping nutters they are!

[knocker]

Better stick to the UK this weekend, Spain not looking too clever

 

[Sky Full]

All models now confident that high pressure will build in after the imminent colder weather this week.  However, in 8 days time (+192) GFS shows the high pressure becoming flabby (good old meteorological term) and losing its identity, whilst the next low pressure digs in  behind it....

eventually shoving the the remnants of the high off to the north east.  Not a good start to April....

Meanwhile, the ECM sees the high holding its own at +192:

and remaining strong enough to force the next low pressure system off to the north:

Once again, we have a difference of opinion and the arguments start after only 8 days.  Which model will get it right this time?  Place your bets please.....  

[Frosty.]

42 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

All models now confident that high pressure will build in after the imminent colder weather this week.  However, in 8 days time (+192) GFS shows the high pressure becoming flabby (good old meteorological term) and losing its identity, whilst the next low pressure digs in  behind it....

eventually shoving the the remnants of the high off to the north east.  Not a good start to April....

Meanwhile, the ECM sees the high holding its own at +192:

and remaining strong enough to force the next low pressure system off to the north:

Once again, we have a difference of opinion and the arguments start after only 8 days.  Which model will get it right this time?  Place your bets please.....  

Fingers crossed for the Ecm 00z high pressure.

Edited March 20, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

UKMO continues to show high-pressure building for the weekend whether the south get affected by rain as per the beeb's forecast remains to be seen

[knocker]

The question is once we get the grot of the next few days out of the way what will be the way forward. Although there is not total agreement between the anomalies they are all singing from the same hymn sheet so what can we discern from last night's NOAA and this morning's GEFS and EPS taking the 8-13 period for the last two.

What they are all indicating with various detail differences is the stronger vortex lobe to be Franz Joseph Land with associated trough eastern Europe but retaining the Greenland/Canada lobe with the Atlantic trough. The general idea then is for the high cell over the UK which initially gains influence next weekend will slowly weaken and move east as the whole pattern shifts in that direction. This is where it gets tricky because there is no consensus on the speed of this change and thus the position of the Atlantic trough which is pretty important because it will dictate how quickly the UK can expect ingress from the Atlantic.If NOAA and GEFS are correct not anytime soon but the EPS is in rather more of a hurry. Obviously the det. runs are going to need to sort the detail of all this but to me the medium term outlook is not too bad, perhaps the NW being the exception, with temps a little above average and quite dry.

 

Edited March 20, 2017 by knocker

[Sky Full]

58 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

Fingers crossed for the Ecm 00z high pressure.

 

Couldn't agree more with you, Frosty.  Those images you posted from the ECM indicate a lovely settled spell of Spring-like weather which we could really do with here imby after a really damp and quite miserable March to date.  The problem for me is that the GFS was the first to spot the imminent cold spell so does this mean it's more on the money with its different take on the End-Of-The-Month Show...?

[Frosty.]

12 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

Couldn't agree more with you, Frosty.  Those images you posted from the ECM indicate a lovely settled spell of Spring-like weather which we could really do with here imby after a really damp and quite miserable March to date.  The problem for me is that the GFS was the first to spot the imminent cold spell so does this mean it's more on the money with its different take on the End-Of-The-Month Show...?

Yes I can't understand why anyone would want the grotty atlantic to dominate, give me pleasant high pressure any day from this time of year especially..hopefully the Ecm is right.

Edited March 20, 2017 by Frosty.

[Frosty.]

The Ecm 00z ensemble mean becomes anticyclonic from later this week until the end of March with plenty of pleasant sunshine and chilly nights with a risk of frost and fog patches, turning more unsettled across the far n / w by day 10 but for the majority of the uk it's a good looking outlook.

Edited March 20, 2017 by Frosty.

[Sky Full]

10 hours ago, andymusic said:

only problem with this dry sort of weather this time of the year is it'll get the idiots who like to start grass fires out of hibernation on the mountainsides of wales - flipping nutters they are!

Looking at the Arpege accumulated rainfall amounts over the next few days I would think the Welsh hills and mountains are going to remain very wet for a week or two yet!  Those brain dead arsonists will need a lengthy spell of warm and dry weather or a flamethrower with a generous supply of petrol before they can do much damage for while, especially on the Beacons by the look of it....

[Frosty.]

The Gfs 6z shows a pleasant weekend under high pressure with decent temperatures by day and plenty of sunshine although nights look chilly with slight air frosts in the north and ground frosts further south perhaps with mist / fog patches. The first half of next week looks mostly fine too and becoming warmer, especially further south with temps into the 60's F.

Edited March 20, 2017 by Frosty.

[andymusic]

3 hours ago, Sky Full said:

Looking at the Arpege accumulated rainfall amounts over the next few days I would think the Welsh hills and mountains are going to remain very wet for a week or two yet!  Those brain dead arsonists will need a lengthy spell of warm and dry weather or a flamethrower with a generous supply of petrol before they can do much damage for while, especially on the Beacons by the look of it....

you'd be surprised - it's this time of the year they target for some weird reason - high pressure looks like getting really established towards the end of the week - i'll give it a week after that before the fire services are moaning about it all and it becomes a news story

Edited March 20, 2017 by andymusic

[Frosty.]

A decent GEFS 6z mean with high pressure always close and sometimes over the uk, especially the weekend and early next week. Temperatures becoming pleasantly or very mild by day but still chilly nights with a risk of slight frosts and fog patches where skies clear..further ahead looks driest, brightest and mildest in the south closest to the high with just occasional less settled blips and more changeable with nearer average temps further n / nw.

Edited March 20, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

It looks like a prolonged period of drier than normal weather if the ECM weeklies are correct chillier this week becoming milder from next week?

[Frosty.]

Yes it's looking predominantly settled once this grotty cooler spell is out of the way..a taste of nice spring weather is on the way and the weekend in particular looks very decent and some warm temps expected across southern uk next week.

Edited March 20, 2017 by Frosty.

[Summer Sun]

Cooler for a time this week milder by the weekend?

[Frosty.]

16 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Cooler for a time this week milder by the weekend?

Agreed, we can't call this week a cold snap across southern uk, cooler than recently but not cold..even the north any snow risk is generally restricted to higher ground and fairly brief with mostly rain throughout at low levels before things settle down nicely later this week, through the weekend into early next week..and become much milder again.

Edited March 20, 2017 by Frosty.