Hurricane Irma

[knocker]

This evening's ecm

[Iceberg]

pretty sure ec is taking Irma to a cat 5 here. 

A scary run. 

Also latest official estimates are 100kts now and a cat 3 major already. 

So tropical storm to major in 24 hrs again. 

[karyo]

7 minutes ago, knocker said:

This evening's ecm

A slight adjustment north on the 0z track and heading to the Golf like a powerful missile!

The southern states must be watching behind the sofa.

[knocker]

And Cuba

[Iceberg]

A blend of ec and gfs would still be a terrible Floridish hit. 

Ec took it sub 930 at times particularly around Cuba. 

[alexisj9]

I'm just hoping if it does go through that gap, and into the gulf of mexico, it doesn't do the same thing as harvey, as I'm sure SE Texas needs some time now to recover.

[Hurricane Andrew]

2 minutes ago, alexisj9 said:

I'm just hoping if it does go through that gap, and into the gulf of mexico, it doesn't do the same thing as harvey, as I'm sure SE Texas needs some time now to recover.

I expect the death toll from Harvey will rise pretty quick over the next few days this would be last thing they wanna see after Harvey

[summer blizzard]

The upper flow would cause a turn into the Panhandle most likely on the Euro. 

NHC have declared Irma a Category 3 hurricane. 

By day 5 the NHC notes warming seas and brings Irma to 140mph. 

[Iceberg]

Well nhc have just confirmed she is a cat 3 major hurricane. So a tropical storm to major in 24 hrs. 

Also almost unbelievably they think  it's going through an erc already with the eye bearly 12 hrs old 

[knocker]

 

[Nick F]

Quite unusual for a major hurricane to form so far east  over the tropical Atlantic too.

 

Edited August 31, 2017 by Nick F

[karyo]

The 18z takes Irma somewhere between New York and Boston.

[summer blizzard]

5 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 18z takes Irma somewhere between New York and Boston.

Yeah, it heads for the weakness around the Outer Banks but the trough captures it just in time to shunt it due north into New Jersey. 

It's an indicator of just what we have to deal with for track. If the flow over the US is flatter and/or slower then the system will struggle to see a weakness and you get a Euro solution. If the flow is more amplified then the system may see the weakness but your in a situation where the base of the trough has to be off the coast otherwise the system gets picked up too late and smashes somewhere north (and a ~930mb hurricane that starts getting barcloically forced will be a monster of an extra-tropical system). 

[Ross Andrew Hemphill]

I checked Accuweather this morning and they showed Irma as a strong tropical storm. I came on not that long ago to check if it was a hurricane yet and it's already a category 3!! That's some explosive development... Quite amazing but scary at the same time.

Models going for another US hit, and if it's already a major storm this far out in the Atlantic then God help whoever is in her path. If conditions are right there's the chance for 170mph+ gusts... Don't want to think of the damage that would cause in the poorer Caribbean countries. 

[Chris D]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/catl/h5-loop-rb.html

I cannot tell if it's actually undergoing eyewall replacement or not? Seemed like it weakened slightly so maybe it has. The eye is so small it's tricky to see! NHC were expecting it to take place to be fair.

[summer blizzard]

It may just have been an inner core issue, Harvey had conentric eyewalls a few times but rarely had an actual replacement. 

Very nice core and eyewall at the moment..

Euro ensembles are mostly north of the operational but solid in their support for landfall (most into South Carolina).

[Darren Bown]

I'm off to Florida on Sunday. This is going to be interesting....

[East_England_Stormchaser91]

9 hours ago, Iceberg said:

pretty sure ec is taking Irma to a cat 5 here. 

A scary run. 

Also latest official estimates are 100kts now and a cat 3 major already. 

So tropical storm to major in 24 hrs again. 

Notice she's got a little daughter marching in behind her! 

[knocker]

 

[knocker]

This gfs 00z output keeping in mind the time period of course. The HP to the NE having some steering influence?

Edited September 1, 2017 by knocker

[Iceberg]

Ec very similar to the previous run until around t144. After that it moves significantly to the trough position if the gfs. The high and trough to the north on the pictures below show the difference. 

No chance of a gom entry or Cuba if the trough verifies. But probably a solid east coast hit. Low pressure from the ec as well down to 920mb

[knocker]

Yup the ecm has it 920mb well east of Florida (not a million miles from Bermuda) with the upper trough over the NE coast at T222 and curving north.

[summer blizzard]

Probably a hit near Maine ect.. on the Euro. Knockers charts show the path out to proper sea is closed. 

GFS is basically Issabel or Hugo 2.0. 

[karyo]

I suppose the overnight models are good news for the poor Caribbean countries as Irma is shown to have a more northerly track. The eastern USA coast is still at risk and the GFS in particular looks catastrophic. I'd say it is not so clear where Irma will end up on the ECM. She could even stay in the ocean.

[stodge]

Morning all

For completeness, here's GEM 00Z OP at T+240:

The Gulf of Mexico option is back on the table here with landfalls in Bahama and Florida first.

The NHC guidance now suggests a turn back to the WNW at the weekend which will spare Martinique and probably Puerto Rico from direct hits but whether the Bahamas and Florida will be so fortunate is impossible to say at this time.