Hurricane Irma

[Frost HoIIow]

Off the scale rain spike for Miami

[MattStoke]

Shows how difficult the track and subsequent consequences of a hurricane are to predict, as they wobble about with little to steer them and their intensity and size dependent on interaction with land and water. 

Always thought low pressure systems in the UK were particularly difficult to predict but often you just need to look at the position of the jet stream steering them.

Edited September 9, 2017 by MattStoke

[crimsone]

Just want to get it out there for people who don't do time zones in their head and on the fly...

Current forecasts see the eye on the Keys at 0600 ET Sunday, which in UK time is 11:00am.

[crimsone]

Another tornado warning:

http://www.tornadohq.com/live/
 

000
WFUS52 KMFL 091352
TORMFL
FLC021-091415-
/O.NEW.KMFL.TO.W.0018.170909T1352Z-170909T1415Z/

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
Tornado Warning
National Weather Service Miami FL
952 AM EDT SAT SEP 9 2017

The National Weather Service in Miami has issued a

* Tornado Warning for...
  East central Collier County in southwestern Florida...

* Until 1015 AM EDT

* At 951 AM EDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado
  was located 7 miles southeast of Hendry Correctional, or 20 miles
  east of Ave Maria, moving west at 25 mph.

  HAZARD...Tornado. 

  SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. 

  IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without 
           shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. 
           Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur.  Tree 
           damage is likely. 

* This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of
  east central Collier County.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a
sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile
home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and
protect yourself from flying debris.

&&

LAT...LON 2625 8110 2620 8109 2616 8128 2625 8129
TIME...MOT...LOC 1351Z 084DEG 22KT 2623 8113 

TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...0.00IN

$$

BAXTER

Edited September 9, 2017 by crimsone

[Iceberg]

Those tornado warnings demonstrate very well the instability Irma will be moving into on its approach to Florida. 

Its not just the egg cooking ssts it's also the high energy atmosphere which will aid convection and the cold cloud tops. 

[crimsone]

6 minutes ago, Iceberg said:

Those tornado warnings demonstrate very well the instability Irma will be moving into on its approach to Florida. 

Its not just the egg cooking ssts it's also the high energy atmosphere which will aid convection and the cold cloud tops. 

Somewhat awkwardly, the warnings spread in the opposite direction to their Floridian norm. If a funnel actually touches down, I really hope the people in its path realise that they go east to west rather than west to east.

It's also, potentially, only the beginning. these are just the tips of the feeders.

Edited September 9, 2017 by crimsone

[crimsone]

As of 13:45z, it looks like the south western eyewall has truck land in Cuba again...

[bobbarley]

Surely these westward shifts are fairly positive for Florida, storm surge on the west coast won't be as bad due to offshore winds in the dangerous northeast eyewall

[MattStoke]

Just now, bobbarley said:

Surely these westward shifts are fairly positive for Florida, storm surge on the west coast won't be as bad due to offshore winds in the dangerous northeast eyewall

Would also mean the storm remains over warm water for longer. More time to re-strengthen.

Also, not long ago it looked as though western parts of Florida would be largely spared. A more western track puts them in the firing line and more of the state on the more dangerous, eastern side of the storm. 

[crimsone]

5 minutes ago, bobbarley said:

Surely these westward shifts are fairly positive for Florida, storm surge on the west coast won't be as bad due to offshore winds in the dangerous northeast eyewall

Not really a westward shift, that I can see. It's still a WNW/bordering on NW movement, and you can see that she's beginning to interact with the trough. Basically, as the coast of Cuba starts turning away, Irma should start turning northward.

She should start lifting out soon. If she doesn't... well, ~then~ we can start wondering about any kind of significant deviation from the models.

Edited September 9, 2017 by crimsone

[Gray-Wolf]

The burning question has to be " what will the next 12 hours do to Irma's intensity?" The current swathe of downcasting, whilst Irma did as forecast, will have impact on folk in the areas about to be impacted by feeding in false hope ( we all do not wish for poor outcomes so grab at any possible 'better outcome' ) only to have them crushed if we see Irma do exactly as we have been seeing storms do these past years and go through unfeasibly fast period of intensification?

This is my fear and I have to add that some of the rapid intensifications we have witnessed have been in far less favourable conditions and with 'open' systems so with Irma within some of the most favourable conditions for intensification, once free of Cuba , on the planet what should I be thinking?

[Iceberg]

The eye looks pretty healthy to me. It loss pressure earlier today, but since then has been pretty stable. Recon have always found cat 3 winds. 

The deeper convection is still expanding and drier slots filling in slowly at this time. 

[crimsone]

1 minute ago, Iceberg said:

The eye looks pretty healthy to me. It loss pressure earlier today, but since then has been pretty stable. Recon have always found cat 3 winds. 

The deeper convection is still expanding and drier slots filling in slowly at this time. 

I confess, I'd hoped that she might ingest a good mouthful of the outside world and have a bit of a hiccup earlier. As it goes, it appears she may make if off Cuba without too much ill effect. Only a poorly timed ERC is going to help florida otherwise, it seems.

[draztik]

Looks as though Miami will escape the worst of the winds .... so what was seen as catastrophic for the city yesterday, looks not so bad today.

[cowdog]

1 minute ago, draztik said:

Looks as though Miami will escape the worst of the winds .... so what was seen as catastrophic for the city yesterday, looks not so bad today.

Instead Tampa is going to be hit hard. While Miami should survive a cat 4 hurricane thanks to Andrew, Tampa is known to be a disaster waiting to happen due to the Storm surge potential is collosal, so they knew it wouldn't take a very strong hurricane to cause issues and yet the US Government has been trying to ignore the fact the city has significant risk issues.

[crimsone]

Just now, cowdog said:

Instead Tampa is going to be hit hard. While Miami should survive a cat 4 hurricane thanks to Andrew, Tampa is known to be a disaster waiting to happen due to the Storm surge potential is collosal, so they knew it wouldn't take a very strong hurricane to cause issues and yet the US Government has been trying to ignore the fact the city has significant risk issues.

Not to mention that in miami there's still tropical storm force winds and hurricane gusts (at least), with storm surge.

[Chris.R]

Jeff is back streaming from Florida moving to another location. He did some great streams during Harvey. https://www.pscp.tv/w/bIKpADFQbUVxWFhOWk1Oam98MVlwSmttVm9iQmpLau4eCAhoNcWkSMTmWhquHiyt9qlywQ2y32nZmDNkfQOu

 

[crimsone]

New Advisory (according to Weather Channel, which I've got on in the background)
Cat 3
125 mph
941mb

[Mokidugway]

Shame weather 09 isn't here anymore he was good at convective forecasts in these situations, though got banned for trolling .

[crimsone]

2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Shame weather 09 isn't here anymore he was good at convective forecasts in these situations, though got banned for trolling .

I'm kind of sad that Kold Weather seems to have gone away at some point. Kold was really good with hurricanes. Alas, I disappeared for a while (well, for a few years), and (less than) suddenly all the names changed. I'm still proudly parodying Pete's signature though

Edited September 9, 2017 by crimsone

[Chris.R]

A webcam with sound, sorry if already posted. https://www.earthcam.com/usa/florida/miamiandthebeaches/?cam=miamibeach3

[Gray-Wolf]

I'm just wondering why so many folk are not utilising their own recent experience of the rapid intensification of storms, over say a 24hr period, when looking at Irma as she leaves Cuba? If we have seen storms rapidly intensify over 'marginal' water temps then what should we expect when she is again fully over waters of 30c+???

I do not know why sites, such a WU, that have plenty of posters in the regions forecast to be impacted, are seeing so many trolling posts 'downcasting' the threat of the storm? 

I have my own theories but this is not the place!!!

[karyo]

The 12z GFS is very similar to the 6z. It seems the gfs is done with the westward corrections.

[Man With Beard]

GFS 12Z - 897mb at landfall over Florida!!!!!!

[MattStoke]

7 minutes ago, karyo said:

The 12z GFS is very similar to the 6z. It seems the gfs is done with the westward corrections.

Looks it's centre runs more along the west coast of Florida to me. Would mean it continues to be fueled by warm waters and maintains intensity for longer as it moves north near the coast?

Edited September 9, 2017 by MattStoke