October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[Roger J Smith]

Updated table of entries including three late ones, sixty in total, median still 10.6 C.

https://www.netweather.tv/forum/topic/75427-cet-competition-the-scores-ongoing/?page=8

I am within visual contact range of Lettucing Gutted, how's it going up there? 

 

[NorthYorksWeather]

12.6c here to the 4th, 1.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

Couple more drops likely before we see milder temps weekend onwards.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.4C -1.1C below normal. The low though is +0.5C above normal.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.3C -1.0C below normal

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 11.9C  -1.3C should rise slightly this week by the looks of things.

[Summer Sun]

Nothing from Hadley most of the week so some others

Metcheck      12.44c  +1.93c

Netweather   12.86c  +2.46c

[NorthYorksWeather]

11.8c here to the 6th, 0.6c above the 1981-2010 average.

That looks like the low point for a while now..

[Summer Sun]

A warm week ahead both by day and night this could turn out to be one of the warmest October's on record if the models are trending in the right direction

13.3c is the record set in 2001

Edited October 8, 2017 by Summer Sun

[Nick L]

11 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

A warm week ahead both by day and night this could turn out to be one of the warmest October's on record if the models are trending in the right direction

A very dry first half to the month in the south too, some places could see no meaningful rainfall on current output.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 11.6C -1.5C below normal.

[Summer Sun]

Hadley is not having the best of years numerous lengthy breaks this year in updating the latest is at 1 week and counting

[NorthYorksWeather]

11.9c here to the 8th, 0.8c above the 1981-2010 average.

The only was is up from here.

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 11.7C -1.2C below normal

[BornFromTheVoid]

No signs of any cool weather on the horizon yet.

Only 2 years have made through August, September, and October without recording a daily CET of under 10C - 2001 and 2006, both of which had their streak ended on November 1st
6 other years have made it as far as October 20th, and 27 others as far as October 10th.

So far there are no signs of a daily CET under 10C on the horizon.

[Summer Sun]

Still nothing from Hadley

Metcheck       12.56c    +2.5c

Netweather     12.9c     +2.51c

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up to 11.9C -1.0C below normal.

[cheeky_monkey]

Cloudy Edmonton is 4.7c to the 9th which is 1.2c below normal. 

[NorthYorksWeather]

12.3c here to the 10th, 1.2c above the 1981-2010 average.

Chilly night tonight will momentarily pause any rises but after the weekend we could be 13c+.

Edited October 11, 2017 by vizzy2004

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up 12.2C -0.6C below normal

[The PIT]

Just to add Average high is at 14.8C -1.7C below normal while the min is at 9.5C +0.6C above normal.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Potential for some incredibly warm weather for the time of year over the next week or so, with the latest GFS suggesting the daily records for the 14th, 15th, and 16th are very much at risk.

Date    Forecast    Current Record
14^th……..17.4C…………16.1C
15^th……..16.9C…………15.7C
16^th……..18.9C…………15.8C

The forecast average for those 3 days is 17.9C. This is remarkable given the latest date that a single daily CET of 17C or higher has been recorded previously is October 11^th.
That value of 18.9C for the 16^th would be the latest date a CET of 18C or more has been recorded by 10 days, beating the previous 19.0C from the 6^th recorded in 1921.

Of course, there are forecasts subject to change, especially as it’s a tropical/ex-tropical system carrying this warmth northward, but the given the potential it will be fascinating to see how things pan out.

Edited October 11, 2017 by BornFromTheVoid

[Summer Sun]

Metcheck     12.77c  +2.66c

Netweather   13.07c +2.68c

[Man With Beard]

54 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Metcheck     12.77c  +2.66c

Netweather   13.07c +2.68c

That October record doesn't look so far off. I remember 2001 well, it was sensational with 25C reached in two separate spells. Never thought it would be broken

[Roger J Smith]

The last time I ventured into near-record CET prediction land was Dec 2015 and that one even surpassed the LG mark, as I recall he had 9.0 and reality was 9.7 C. My timid punt was 7.4 which seemed daring at the time.

This month we have 15.5 from LG and 12.7 from me, and going entirely on memory here, I think Ed Stone posted 12.2.

I don't think it's possible to get to 15.5 from the current 11.8 to 12.0 but these forecast warm days will change the running mean to about 13,0 or even 13,5 -- however, from Tuesday on, means appear closer to 10-11 range and I would still say Ed Stone is the bettor's choice at this stage, 13.2 to 17th and 10.5 average 18th-31st gives an outcome of 12.0,

[seaside 60]

17 hours ago, The PIT said:

Just to add Average high is at 14.8C -1.7C below normal while the min is at 9.5C +0.6C above normal.

Just a polite question how can Sheffield be so far below average when most other places are 2c above.