October 2017 C.E.T. forecasts

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield up 12.5C  +1.5C above normal. A slight change in the outlook now means only one day well below normal Saturday and Sunday both have spells of quite mild weather. So looks like we will end up between 12C and 12.3C. This could make it the 4th warmest on record here. Certainly in the top ten.

[Summer Sun]

13.2 to the 26th

2.3 above the 61 to 90 average

2.3 above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 12.4C +1.6C above normal. Min temp +2.2C above normal showing how mild the nights have been.

[Summer Sun]

13.1 to the 27th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.2 above the 81 to 10 average

[NorthYorksWeather]

12.2c here to the 27th, 2.3c above the 1981-2010 average.

[BornFromTheVoid]

Yesterday is provisionally, the first sub 10C day of the season. The final 2 days of the month are both likely to average under 10C also.

The CET now looks like finishing between 12.5 and 12.7C before corrections are applied

[Summer Sun]

13.0 to the 28th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

[NorthYorksWeather]

11.9c here to the 29th, 2.0c above the 1981-2010 average.

Edited October 30, 2017 by vizzy2004

[Summer Sun]

12.9 to the 29th

2.2 above the 61 to 90 average

2.1 above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 12.4C +1.9C above normal final figure looks like it'll be 11.9C to 12C

[Summer Sun]

12.7 to the 30th

2.0 above the 61 to 90 average

2.0 above the 81 to 10 average

[The PIT]

Unless it gets warm overnight sunnysheffield will finish on 11.9C +1.6C above normal

[Radiating Dendrite]

Finished on 12.1c here. Average low was 8.6c and high 15.5c.

[Man With Beard]

On 30/09/2017 at 09:35, stewfox said:

My heart says 12.4 as it hasn't occurred in 354yrs but my head says 10.5 . ill go with 10.5

Always go with your heart

[Daniel*]

More landmass looks cooler than average not Western Europe. The poles really are ‘toasty’.  

 

[Roger J Smith]

Final value 12.4 C (rounded from 12.35, it dropped like an Ed Stone (congrats to winner).

(these facts hidden behind curtain in the website, rounding confirmed from monthly rankings)

13th warmest October, first time 12.4 has occurred. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

Looks like 3 daily records too, 17.2, 16.4 and 14.9C on the 14th, 16th and 25th respectively.

[NorthYorksWeather]

11.7c here to finish, 1.9c above the 1981-2010 average.

[Scorcher]

A bit disappointing that it ended up outside the top 10 in the end. I think the coolness at the end of the month has disguised just how warm most of October was.

The warm day on the 16th when it was 20C here at 9am will live long in the memory, especially with the strong winds that followed from Ophelia.

A memorable month but one that had the potential to be even better- I wonder what sort of temperatures could have been achieved on the 16th had the warmest pulse of air hit the UK in the early afternoon rather than the morning.

[Radiating Dendrite]

The most notable thing here was how dry the month was with just 24mm recorded. 

[Don]

6 hours ago, Scorcher said:

A bit disappointing that it ended up outside the top 10 in the end. I think the coolness at the end of the month has disguised just how warm most of October was.

The warm day on the 16th when it was 20C here at 9am will live long in the memory, especially with the strong winds that followed from Ophelia.

A memorable month but one that had the potential to be even better- I wonder what sort of temperatures could have been achieved on the 16th had the warmest pulse of air hit the UK in the early afternoon rather than the morning.

It looked at one point that there was a good chance it could have been the warmest October on record.  Glad it wasn't mind!

[Chris.R]

October in Crosby finished with the following stats. 

 

Lowest Min - 1.7°C - 30th

Mean min - 11.1°C (+2.9)

Highest min - 16.9°C - 14th

Lowest max - 10.1°C - 30th

Mean max - 15.3°C (+1.4)

Highest max - 20.8°C - 16th

Coldest day - 6.4°C - 30th

Warmest day - 17.7°C 13th

Month mean - 13.0°C (+1.95)

[cheeky_monkey]

Here in Edmonton we finished on 3.9c which is 2c below normal...ave Max was 11.1c ave Min was -3.4c 

This is the first time i have not seen snow in October..which is strange considering the month ended 2c below the norm.

[J10]

CET this month - 12.4c

This month only Ed Stone got it spot on, with Roger J Smith and I remember Atlantic 252 not far behind.

Seasonal - All change with the 1-2-3 now virtualsphere, I remember Atlantic 252 and Radiating Dendrite.

Overall - a slight change at the top with

3rd. Weather 26 remaining in 3rd.
2nd. daveshug (was 1st last month),
1st. I remember Atlantic 252 (was 2nd last month),

 

Oct 2017 CET.pdf

Oct 2017 CET New.xlsx

 

Edited November 5, 2017 by J10

[Roger J Smith]

UPDATES for recent normals and Consensus in the scoring.

 

Having trouble opening the contest files, for now these are correct for mean temp errors and approx for points, also approx for positions in each case.

Table of forecast errors and position points (Normal 1987-2016 played Dec as 1986-2015)

Error stat is forecast value minus actual value. Negative value means normal or consensus too low. 

... Positive means normal or consensus too high. The average error (not absolute) is 0.7 deg too low for Normal 1981-2010 and 0.5 too low for normals of most recent 30 years, The average error of our consensus is also 0.5 too low. We have been too low six times and too high four times, one of the six too low was within 0.1. Our largest errors were in December, February, March and May (and October now).

Errors are then averaged by absolute values as in our scoring tables, and points are totalled. These values appear in the second last column (mean/T).

Positions are relative to all players who have entered at least 10/11 months so far (this is more relevant to the average errors than the total points).

 

FORECASTER ____ Dec _ Jan _ Feb _ Mar _ Apr _ May _ Jun _ Jul _ Aug _ Sep _ Oct __ mean/T __ position

 

Normal 1981-2010 _  -1.4 _ +0.4_ -1.7_ -2.1_ -0.4 _ -1.5 _ -1.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.8 _ +0.5 _ -1.7 ___ 1.10 __ ~8th

__ points _________ 79.6_ 69.9_ 56,1_ 59.0_ 86.8 _49.7__7.5 _ 93.7 _ 61.8 _ 86.3 _ 55.0 __ 710.4 __ ~6th

 

Normal 1987-2016 _  -1.0 _ +0.6_ -1.3_ -2.0__ -0.1 _-1.4_ -1.5 _ -0.1 _ +0.9 _ +0.6 _ -1.5 ___ 1.00 __ ~6th

__ points _________ 89.8_ 58.0_ 67.4_ 61.8_  98.4_ 53.0__7.5 _93.7 _ 56.6 _ 82.9 _ 65.0 _ 734.1 __ ~3rd

 

Consensus _______  -2.1 _ -0.1_ -1.8_ -2.2 _ +0.9 _-1.3 _ -0.5 _+0.4 _ +0.9 _ +1.0 _ -1.8 __ 1.19 _ ~ 15th

__ points _________ 50.0 _95.7 _52.4 _56.2 _57.1 _56.4 _72.4_ 70.1 _ 56.6 _ 60.7 _ 51.0 _ 678.6 __ ~7th

__________________________________________________________________________

As noted, I am unable to open the contest files so I can't get precise points or rankings, the ranks are dropped about 1-2 places from September because I imagine one or two lower ranked forecasters did better and moved past these three index values. This was not a good month for consensus or normals.