South West and Central Southern England Regional Weather Discussion 09/12/2017 onwards

[alexisj9]

3 minutes ago, Nights King said:

 

Yay i'm in that one just.

[khodds]

Considering the rain isn’t too far away, it’s still freezing here 0.1c DP -1

[karlos1983]

No rain IMBY yet, 2.4c, rising but only very slowly. 

[Nights King]

Just now, khodds said:

Considering the rain isn’t too far away, it’s still freezing here 0.1c DP -1

 

I think I give up even with the wiggle room for 0 - 7cm we are south of that line even if it is only by a few miles.

Sundays a bust and Mondays a french fancy.  unless pub run improves then I might be back 

[noggin]

11 minutes ago, Nights King said:

 

Hmm, I'm in that thin yellow bit with the ??? Knife edge, tantalising, frustrating etc. But nearer the orange than the grey, so there is hope!

Edited December 9, 2017 by noggin
A bit of positivity inserted

[MidnightSnow]

10 minutes ago, Nights King said:

 

 Firmly in the question mark zone. Never seen a 0-7cm prediction before.

[Dorsetbred]

We must be the best thread in town with Midlanders, and Kent folk all wanting to play in our park. 

[AWD]

Not a good sign that the PPN is further north than what the 12z French models were suggesting for this stage.

[Mapantz]

23 minutes ago, carl79 said:

Im hoping im in a good spot.. fingers all crossed

Brackley south Northamptonshire 

I was just looking at Brackley on my site..

https://www.warehamwx.co.uk/cumulus/ewn/forecast.php?en|2655012|GB|Brackley

You lucky #@*&$%!

[musician]

1 hour ago, Waay to much Wetness said:

I’d vote for this as well = if we get enough votes for Snow will it help 

You've got my vote! 

[musician]

43 minutes ago, CRU said:

Hi everyone, newbie to the site....  

 

What is the prognosis for north gloucestershire tewkesbury area tomorrow? snow or no snow..... 

I would say "Snow, then rain, then back to snow"

 

[Fozfoster]

8 minutes ago, musician said:

I would say "Snow, then rain, then back to snow"

 

that was our forecast 24 hours ago but now all snow, so good luck.

[chris55]

1 hour ago, AWD said:

Minchenhampton might be a good bet.  Get a Winston's ice cream at the same time.  Lol.

I'm 2 mins from Minch....though I don't fancy an ice cream hahah. Maybe some sledging  

[Singularity]

23 minutes ago, AWD said:

Not a good sign that the PPN is further north than what the 12z French models were suggesting for this stage.

Looks on target to me - what site are you viewing them on as the time stamps on that site are an hour ahead of GMT?

Edited December 9, 2017 by Singularity

[musician]

10 minutes ago, Mapantz said:

I was just looking at Brackley on my site..

https://www.warehamwx.co.uk/cumulus/ewn/forecast.php?en|2655012|GB|Brackley

You lucky #@*&$%!

My old school pal lives near you in Greatworth. He'll be leaping up and down with joy. When he tells me its snowing I usually have to tell him that its raining here!

[AWD]

2 minutes ago, Singularity said:

Looks on target to me, possibly even a bit south of those models - what site are you viewing them on as the time stamps on that site are an hour ahead of GMT?

Yep, noted that afterwards so forget previous post.  

[Black Rat]

Hi All,

Been viewing the threads for a while now, this is my first post - so please be gentle 

I must say the South-West, Central-Southern England is the place to be

I have a couple of questions, that I'm sure you'll be able to answer (I'll be honest - all this is quite new to me)

I'm slightly confused on how this weather is tracking, I'm viewing the radars and it seems all the PPN is moving from the Irish Sea over Cornwall / Devon then over to NW France, I'm assuming this will some way change track??

Also, I've noticed the BBC graphics seem to changing virtually on an hourly basis, for example IMBY (just outside Frome) it's now changed from heavy rain from 02:00 Sunday to Sleet starting at midnight, then changing to rain, then sleet back to light snow from 14:00 tomorrow, Just curious as normally the Beeb only really change 2 or 3 times a day 

Many Thanks

Black Rat

[karlos1983]

Think it’s the second batch off the Irish coast that’s the menace in terms of snow, the band over the southewest is going to slip off se I think 

[AWD]

EC 12z Control run;

A lot of Eps members bring the snow line down to Bristol/Bath/Swindon etc with a modest batch down to Somerset/Mendips/Newbury etc.

 

[Mapantz]

9 minutes ago, Black Rat said:

Hi All,

Been viewing the threads for a while now, this is my first post - so please be gentle 

I must say the South-West, Central-Southern England is the place to be

I have a couple of questions, that I'm sure you'll be able to answer (I'll be honest - all this is quite new to me)

I'm slightly confused on how this weather is tracking, I'm viewing the radars and it seems all the PPN is moving from the Irish Sea over Cornwall / Devon then over to NW France, I'm assuming this will some way change track??

Also, I've noticed the BBC graphics seem to changing virtually on an hourly basis, for example IMBY (just outside Frome) it's now changed from heavy rain from 02:00 Sunday to Sleet starting at midnight, then changing to rain, then sleet back to light snow from 14:00 tomorrow, Just curious as normally the Beeb only really change 2 or 3 times a day 

Many Thanks

Black Rat

Hi. Welcome to the forums.

That's the first warm front which is sliding NW to SE. The second set of fronts will pivot across  the South, leaving the occluded front wiggling in a line from East Anglia to South Wales- that is the boundary between the colder and milder air, and where the precip will linger.

[Nights King]

8 minutes ago, AWD said:

EC 12z Control run;

A lot of Eps members bring the snow line down to Bristol/Bath/Swindon etc with a modest batch down to Somerset/Mendips/Newbury etc.

 

If that was indeed correct and came to pass... just another 30 mile sw adjustment would give most of region something to play with.... 

[Frosty hollows]

1 hour ago, Mapantz said:

It's a shame that the large pressure drop occurs halfway through my stations midnight to midnight reset. It would have been close to 35mb in 24 hours, but it looks to be around 1001mb by midnight and perhaps 977mb by midday. 24mb in 12 hours is pretty good going though! Possible wind speed/gust record may go if I am lucky, and then the windchill record on Monday morning. That should keep me entertained while other parts of the country are getting smothered in that horrible white stuff.

Would this be classed as a 'bomb"?

[Theresnoway]

This from Matt Taylor, a little hope for those further north in our region! (Not me!)

[Frosty hollows]

I live slap bang in between the M40 and the M4. Any snow coming from the north is mopped up by the Chilterns to the north. I'm not going to get too excited as the forecast is changing from hour to hour but I'd be delighted to wake up to a few inches. Fnarrr

[Mapantz]

5 minutes ago, Frosty hollows said:

Would this be classed as a 'bomb"?

Unfortunately not. That's because the area of low pressure itself doesn't actually drop by 24mb. I should have probably not been so vague, but the large pressure drop is due to the fact that we're under a ridge of high pressure, before the low pressure moves in. It's still quite an impressive change in pressure in a short space of time though.