Jump to content
Will it snow? 7 day forecast Weather Radar Will it be cold?
Snow?
Local
Radar
Cold?
IGNORED

Model output discussion - into 2018

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

 Share

Recommended Posts

BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted (edited)

Block holds firm at t240....Nice ECM indeed...Some tinkering still methinks...but not in a bad way for coldies 

 

BFTP

 

 

I have no idea why the below images added in and I cannot get rid of them

 

 

 

 

IMG_0295.PNG

IMG_0283.JPG

Edited by BLAST FROM THE PAST
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
comet Enthusiast

comet

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

The t 240 chart could really be setting up for a battle royal.

ECH1-240.GIF?31-0

Not bothered about the detail. That is the first run I have seen that shows what the met office may be seeing and for me a very positive run with tons of scope for improvements as we go through the week. We may not be looking at the coldest uppers from the 12z ecm op run today but we could be looking at a much more potent beast in another two or three days time.

Starting to feel a little more optimistic I must say.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Frosty. Maestro

Frosty.

Posted
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
  • Weather Preferences: Spanish Plumes, Blizzards, Severe Frosts :-)
  • Location: Castle Black, the Wall, the North
Posted (edited)

The Ecm 12z is worth a Boom, much stronger block, no Atlantic bulldozing through, turning much colder with frosts, ice & a risk of snow.:drinks:..Happy New year from the Ecm 12z indeed:drunk-emoji::cold-emoji::D

144_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850uk.png

168_mslp850.png

192_mslp850.png

216_mslp850uk.png

216_mslp850.png

 

240_thickuk.png

240_mslp500.png

giphy.gif

Edited by Frosty.
  • Like 7
Link to comment
Share on other sites
chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted

In a way I'd prefer, at this timescale, for the mild air to be close. Seeing Greece etc flooded in warm 850s gives me hope that the eventual outcome may bring that cold air to our latitude rather ban sinking miserably down to south east Europe.

IMG_3195.thumb.PNG.c86fb2cf0c58c5ff2eb5cf4c1058c38d.PNG

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
snowray Veteran

snowray

Posted
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
  • Weather Preferences: Winter Snow, extreme weather, mainly sunny mild summers though.
  • Location: Bexhill-on-Sea, East Sussex
Posted

Its going to start to feel very cold from next weekend onwards even where uppers are nothing special with a stiff E/SE wind, and look at all that cold just to our east, this is what January is meant to look like, old school!:D:cold:

ECM0-144.gif

ECM0-168.gif

ECM0-192.gif

ECM0-216.gif

ECM0-240.gif

  • Like 4
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
4 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So now... the third ECM run that doesn’t plough the Atlantic through at day 9-10

240 chart is excellent - low staling to the SW & fresh CAA south through Scandi!

 

FBB023B8-74A0-402D-B054-10425F2B334C.thumb.png.d69af5f50376b9e92c5de7f011cc3815.png

Feb 91 esque

keen eyed will note the SE UK drop -2c @850 from 216-240 in a slack flow - proper continental air / cold pool that is - rare as gold hens teeth.

 

There's an argument actually to say that that chart is better than around 1st-2nd Feb 1991 ish), the PV is actually weaker thus the Atlantic / Greeny troughing much more favourably aligned, uppers not as good to the East naturally but the actual synoptic chart looks more primed to bring the Easterly than Feb 1991 did!

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
chris55 Accomplished

chris55

Posted
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Extreme!
  • Location: Stroud, Gloucestershire
Posted (edited)

Abbie and BFTP ...... you guys must have a teleconnection :0

both posted exactly the same chart and picture!! Spooky!

Edited by chris55
  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

OMG by 168 EC snow depth charts look fabulous!!!:D

Surely at 168 it would only be northern England and Scotland covered - by 240 however ?

Link to comment
Share on other sites
BLAST FROM THE PAST Maestro

BLAST FROM THE PAST

Posted
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
  • Weather Preferences: Southerly tracking LPs, heavy snow. Also 25c and calm
  • Location: Redhill, Surrey
Posted
Just now, chris55 said:

Abbie and BFTP ...... you guys must have a teleconnection :0

both posted exactly the same charts!!

Lol Chris

I edited my post due to predictive txt and the images appeared!  Lol sorry Abbie

 

BFTP

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
comet Enthusiast

comet

Posted
  • Location: Hertfordshire
  • Location: Hertfordshire
Posted

One other striking thing to note is the northern hemisphere profile which is much more amplified than any other run time will tell whether the ecm is now over doing the amplification. hopefully not.

Happy New year to all on Netweather.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Dancerwithwings Maestro

Dancerwithwings

Posted
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
  • Weather Preferences: Cold and Snow -20 would be nice :)
  • Location: Solihull, WestMidlands, 121m asl -20 :-)
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

OMG by 168 EC snow depth charts look fabulous!!!:D

Wouldn't normally ask....Do you have a LINK PLEASE :clap:

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
cheshire snow Veteran

cheshire snow

Posted
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
  • Weather Preferences: snowy winters,warm summers and Storms
  • Location: Northwich south cheshire 35m or 114ft above sea le
Posted
5 minutes ago, abbie123 said:

If that low to south west goes under we could be seeing seens like this maybe not ..:rofl:

IMG_0295.PNG

IMG_0283.JPG

Knocker was not amused when he found his car,But wait where is Sidney......

C.S

  • Like 3
Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, Ali1977 said:

Surely at 168 it would only be northern England and Scotland covered - by 240 however ?

It is by 168 and to my suprise it doesn't get any better- basically the Atlantic does not get through!

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
Just now, Dancerwithwings said:

Wouldn't normally ask....Do you have a LINK PLEASE :clap:

someone will post it i cant,sorry.

It is north of the midlands tbh-looks like convective snow showers piling into the pennines.

PS Chris Fawkes don't tweet that...

  • Thanks 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites
feb1991blizzard Maestro

feb1991blizzard

Posted
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
  • Weather Preferences: Heavy disruptive snowfall.
  • Location: Manchester Deansgate.
Posted
1 minute ago, Ali1977 said:

Surely at 168 it would only be northern England and Scotland covered - by 240 however ?

Even by 240 its only N.england / Scotland and parts of wales that have a covering.

Link to comment
Share on other sites
bobbydog Maestro

bobbydog

Posted
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
  • Location: Horsham, West sussex, 52m asl
Posted
11 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So now... the third ECM run that doesn’t plough the Atlantic through at day 9-10

240 chart is excellent - low staling to the SW & fresh CAA south through Scandi!

 

FBB023B8-74A0-402D-B054-10425F2B334C.thumb.png.d69af5f50376b9e92c5de7f011cc3815.png

Feb 91 esque

keen eyed will note the SE UK drop -2c @850 from 216-240 in a slack flow - proper continental air / cold pool that is - rare as gold hens teeth.

 

now THAT is much better. it has a better chance of staying in situ and building in strength.

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
1 minute ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Even by 240 its only N.england / Scotland and parts of wales that have a covering.

Thats true- you would have snowcover from 168-240 (and probably perishingly cold by night)

Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ice Day Veteran

Ice Day

Posted
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
  • Weather Preferences: Hurricanes, Thunderstorms and blizzards please!
  • Location: Nr Chelmsford, Essex
Posted

Beauty of a run, would have loved to see the 264 chart.  This is why I love Scandi highs, this is at 240hrs

ECH1-240.GIF?31-0

This is from 1987, not a million miles apart

archivesnh-1987-1-8-12-0.png

Which a few days later led to this. Well, if you can't ramp on New Years Eve when can you!!!

archivesnh-1987-1-12-12-0.png

  • Like 2
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Ali1977 Maestro

Ali1977

Posted
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
  • Location: North East Cotswolds, 232m, 761feet ASL
Posted
Just now, feb1991blizzard said:

Even by 240 its only N.england / Scotland and parts of wales that have a covering.

Still a long way off I guess, back to frosts and wintery showers though - I imagine colder than the last few cold spells , just need to see if the Scandy heights do happen, and if so do they become entrenched 

Link to comment
Share on other sites
  • Popular Post
nick sussex Maestro

nick sussex

Posted
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Location: Eastbourne and Larnaca,Cyprus .
  • Popular Post
Posted

Quite a nice upgrade from the ECM.

If energy disrupts se under the ridge at T240 hrs then it’s a cold lock in and it’s now looking like we’re entering a crucial period for January .

Let’s hope for further upgrades and of course we do need to see broader agreement between the big 3 for how the low sinks and how quickly that occurs.

Overall not a bad way to end 2017.

Happy New Year to everyone :cold-emoji:

  • Like 16
Link to comment
Share on other sites
Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
 Share
Go to topic listing
×
×
  • Create New...