Short range model discussion - into 2018

[knocker]

Some interesting cloud on the 12 high res. Modis and the front shows brilliantly on the 12 geostationary. Images courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station

[swebby]

8 hours ago, knocker said:

The ecm 500mb GP anomaly and the 850mb temps contours

Serious temp anomalies there for NW Africa, think i clocked a beeb forecast over the weekend that had graphics indicating a fair bit of snow for the Atlas mountains.

[knocker]

Rain, sleet and snow as the front tracks south east overnight and through tomorrow with some heft wintry showers in the wake, more so in the NW Quite a severe frost tomorrow morning but don't tale these model temps as definitive

[knocker]

The ecm not without interest this evening. It develops a wave at T72 west of N. Ireland at 20W  This becomes an enclosed low 990mb NW of Stornoway at T84 (Friday 00) with the front and rain down north west England to Cornwall which then traverses the country clearing the south east by midday Friday. It could also be accompanied by strong winds in the north

 

[knocker]

A slight but important shift of emphasis with tonight’s anomalies. A slight intensifying of the upper trough associated with the active Canadian vortex, so much so that the EPS develops a second lobe over Iceland  The net result of this is still a very strong westerly upper flow leaving the eastern seaboard and across the Atlantic but the interface between the two airmasses has moved a tad east. Thus so has the divergence and the northern arm is now swinging north over Scandinavia and around the east European ridge whilst the southern arm swings SE to the weaker trough to the south east. Ergo systems tracking across the Atlantic are now likely to impact the UK and perhaps bring some strong winds with the unsettled weather.  Temps still below average but not excessively so.

The vortex still impressive at 100mb

Edited February 5, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

Today and tonight

After a frosty start this morning (not too bad in many areas of England and Wales where it is cloudy, around 0-- -2C,) snow will move south east with the occlusion that is currently over southern Scotland, NW England and Wales. A reasonable coating in the north and central areas but lighter in the S/SW where the wind will pick up later as the ridge squeezes in. Behind the front some wintry showers, already into N. Ireland and Scotland which could give a fair covering of snow, Overnight clear skies and quite a severe frost for most but light snow lingering in the SE and perhaps more showers in th west on troughs in the general circulation

Tomorrow

As noted a frosty start but by 1200 fronts have arrived in the north west bringing rain and some snow, probably confined to the high ground, and these will attempt to track south east. But progress is negligible against the ridge and they will either stop or weaken considerably leaving most of the country dry but cold.

Thursday/early Friday

As can be seen the fronts have introduced a wedge of warmer air temporarily across the UK with the deep upper trough and the much colder air away to the north west. As the fronts finally clear the south east by 0600 Friday morning this colder air will also ingress the UK, albeit somewhat modified, bringing clearer colder condition for most with some wintry showers in the north west

Friday/Saturday

Cold and dry for most on Friday except the north west which could experience frequent wintry showers on the prevailing westerly wind before overnight the whole process starts again with fronts, rain and snow impacting the north west by 0600.

And looking at the GEFS anomalies this morning certainly signs of some rapid changes round day 11

 

Edited February 6, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

I might have played this down a bit above but the ecm has it quite wet in the early hours of Friday as the front(s) tracks south east and then wet and windy over the weekend with gales.

[knocker]

The front very slow moving and tending to fragment producing intermittent slight snow here. Temp still 0C at St Mawgan

http://weather.uwyo.edu/surface/meteorogram/europe.shtml

Edited February 6, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

This morning's fax had the warm sector over the UK Thursday which ties in well with the gfs 06

 

 

Edited February 6, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The midday geostationary shows the decaying occlusion over the UK and copious showery activity to the west and further west the cloud associated with next batch of warm air advectng north on the western flank of the Azores high. Sat image courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving station.

[knocker]

A cold start tomorrow with a widespread quite severe frost followed by a cold bright day in most places but cloud and rain, snow on the high ground will spread into the north west around lunchtime. This associated with the front from the deep depression over Iceland which is trailing a long way to the south west along the flank of the ridge.

The movement of the front, cloud and rain south east is quite slow through Wednesday and overnight thanks in no small measure to the upper trough becoming positively tilted to the south propping up the ridge. But It appears to become activated with waves forming along it and by midnight Friday is across central England with leaving frequent wintry showers in it's wake.

The front finally clears by 1200 Friday leaving all of the UK in a colder Pm airstream with wintry showers in the north and west. But this is short lived as the next fronts are already impacting N/.Ireland and western Scotland by 12 Saturday with rain and gales.

[knocker]

The latest fax have the warm sector draped across the UK Thursday and the cold front just clearing the south east 24 hours later. At the same time the next deep low tracking north east is poised to the west with the associated fronts ready to impact the north west by 1200 Saturday with heavy rain and gales.

Edited February 6, 2018 by knocker

[Andy Bown]

Knocker, appreciate your work in here, what is the timing looking like for Saturday's rain getting into the West Country? I fear a 4th consecutive wet Saturday! Thank you.

[knocker]

Keeping a close eye on the anomalies in these days leading up to some potentially (say three Hail Marys knocker) quick pattern changes.

Some small adjustments in the eastern Atlantic from a couple of days ago this evening. Upstream there is still a vortex lobe Siberia and an east Pacific ridge with the other active lobe N. Canada which is essentially stretching south east more or less creating a lobe extension in the Iceland area, Thus there is still a very strong upper westerly flow leaving the eastern seaboard and winging it's way across the Atlantic in what is now a very flat zonal pattern with the Azores HP suppressed. But unlike a couple of days ago there is now no diverging interface just to the west of the UK, albeit part of the flow does sweep north around the east European ridge which is well into the eastern Arctic. The trough to the SE is weakening so is of less significance. Thus this portends some very unsettled weather with a distinct possibility of some heavy rain and gales as systems track east with temps a little below average. Some snow cannot be ruled out on the higher ground and the usual caveats vis the det. runs apply.

[knocker]

17 minutes ago, Andy Bown said:

Knocker, appreciate your work in here, what is the timing looking like for Saturday's rain getting into the West Country? I fear a 4th consecutive wet Saturday! Thank you.

I fear you may well be right Andy. Going by the ecm the rain would be into Cornwall Saturday morning and moving quickly west

[knocker]

Today and tonight

A cold frosty start to the day and throughout England and Wales it will remain cold, dry and quite sunny  through the day, the exceptions being the south east where wintry showers may persist as a dieing front lingers and the south west of Wales and Cornwall where the Pembroke Dangler may persist for a while. But cloud and rain, snow on the high ground, will encroach N. Ireland and western Scotland during the morning but as this  moves slowly south east the front will weaken against the ridge leaving most of England and Wales dry.

Thus by morning another widespread frost in most parts of England and Wales but the warmer (relatively speaking) air behind the front is already affecting N.Ireland and Scotland Where there may also be some wintry showers.

Thursday through Friday

By 1200 Thursday the original front has fizzled out but the next system follows closely behind and by 1200 the triple point is over NW England with cloud and rain into central parts whilst N. Ireland and Scotland continue to get some blustery wintry showers,

The fronts continue to track south east through the rest of Thursday bringing patchy rain to central and southern England with the warm sector straddling  the south by midnight. Clearly to be seen on the 850mb temp anomaly chart

The fronts eventually clear the south east by 1200 Friday leaving the UK in a strong and cold north westerly with frequent wintry showers in the north and west. But to the west in mid Atlantic a deep depression is en route for Iceland with an associated complex system of fronts north east bound for the UK with the added complication of a wave depression forming as well. The cloud and rain from the first set of fronts are approaching N. Ireland and western Scotland by 00 Saturday.

Over the next 24 hours the fronts track south east accompanied by rain and gales and the aforementioned wave has developed into an intense little depression and is 986mb over northern Scotland at same time which could well produce a fair whack of snow there

Edited February 7, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The ecm has a similar take for this weekend and one has to say it's  not looking great with gales and rain.

 

[knocker]

The ecm det 2-6 anomaly is trending pretty much what one would expect from last night's anomalies

[knocker]

The current surface analysis wont go amiss.

 

[SNOW CRYSTAL]

4 hours ago, knocker said:

Today and tonight

A cold frosty start to the day and throughout England and Wales it will remain cold, dry and quite sunny  through the day, the exceptions being the south east where wintry showers may persist as a dieing front lingers and the south west of Wales and Cornwall where the Pembroke Dangler may persist for a while. But cloud and rain, snow on the high ground, will encroach N. Ireland and western Scotland during the morning but as this  moves slowly south east the front will weaken against the ridge leaving most of England and Wales dry.

Thus by morning another widespread frost in most parts of England and Wales but the warmer (relatively speaking) air behind the front is already affecting N.Ireland and Scotland Where there may also be some wintry showers.

Thursday through Friday

By 1200 Thursday the original front has fizzled out but the next system follows closely behind and by 1200 the triple point is over NW England with cloud and rain into central parts whilst N. Ireland and Scotland continue to get some blustery wintry showers,

The fronts continue to track south east through the rest of Thursday bringing patchy rain to central and southern England with the warm sector straddling  the south by midnight. Clearly to be seen on the 850mb temp anomaly chart

The fronts eventually clear the south east by 1200 Friday leaving the UK in a strong and cold north westerly with frequent wintry showers in the north and west. But to the west in mid Atlantic a deep depression is en route for Iceland with an associated complex system of fronts north east bound for the UK with the added complication of a wave depression forming as well. The cloud and rain from the first set of fronts are approaching N. Ireland and western Scotland by 00 Saturday.

Over the next 24 hours the fronts track south east accompanied by rain and gales and the aforementioned wave has developed into an intense little depression and is 986mb over northern Scotland at same time which could well produce a fair whack of snow there

I love reading your posts in this thread Knocker, so informative, even if I don't always like where the models are heading. The MOD thread is way too intelligent for me ??? and will obviously have more focus on the longer term output. It's great to read someone's thoughts on the shorter term prospects.  Keep them coming.

[knocker]

29 minutes ago, SNOW CRYSTAL said:

I love reading your posts in this thread Knocker, so informative, even if I don't always like where the models are heading. The MOD thread is way too intelligent for me ??? and will obviously have more focus on the longer term output. It's great to read someone's thoughts on the shorter term prospects.  Keep them coming.

Thanks SC, and me so you are not alone

Edited February 7, 2018 by knocker

[knocker]

The midday geostationary showing the frontal systems to the west., courtesy Dundee Satellite Receiving Station

And at 06 tomorrow

 

[snefnug]

I read your posts daily Knocker and  am beginning now to understand a tad and learn, so yes, please do keep it up.

[knocker]

Keeping an eye on this weekend

At Saturday 00 there is a deep low 963mb off south west Iceland with the associated warm front just to the west of N.Ireland and Scotland with the cold front trailing south west in mid ocean with a wave beginning to form.

By 1800 the warm front has tracked south east accompanied by rain and strong winds, perhaps gale force in northern and western areas, and the wave over N.Ireland and just about to develop into a nifty little low.

As can be seen over the next 24 hours it tracks east across southern Scotland into the North sea, deepening  as it goes, Leaving the UK in a very cold north westerly airstream in it's wake and plenty of wintry showers, particularly in Scotland, N. Ireland and western regions with, I imagine,  accumulations of snow in many areas in the north. It would not be a major surprise if the ecm varies in detail

 

[knocker]

The ecm develops the wave a little quicker. At 1200 Saturday the warm front is lying down central England (not unusually the fax is a tad more complicated) with rain and strong winds affecting the western half of Britain.The developing wave on the cold front is west of Ireland. By midnight the warm front has cleared and the wave has developed into an enclosed low 980mb over Edinburgh and is accompanied by heavy rain in central Scotland and strong winds gusting 55kts in N. Ireland and north west England,. By 1200 Sunday it's off the coast of southern Norway 974mb and the UK is in a showery NW airstream.