North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[JeffC]

2 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

Hope is not a strategy... but then if it's strategy we're after, probably the best one is to not give a flying...forgetmenot about the weather!!

[cheshire snow]

20 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

channel 912, for non weather ones 

Is that not the Gay channel or so I am told.

C.S

[Mokidugway]

1 minute ago, JeffC said:

Hope is not a strategy... but then if it's strategy we're after, probably the best one is to not give a flying...forgetmenot about the weather!!

My dad used to say hope is a lazy mans way out ,lol

[Day 10]

11 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

My dad used to say hope is a lazy mans way out ,lol

We are all doomed in here then

[Mokidugway]

6 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

We are all doomed in here then

Mind you my old man died an alcoholic in California in 2001 ,never believed a word he said ,lol

[JeffC]

18 minutes ago, Mokidugway said:

My dad used to say hope is a lazy mans way out ,lol

Probably right but then the fffferry little left these days, what with brexit, the overall political situation and everything...

[JeffC]

1 minute ago, Mokidugway said:

Mind you my old man died an alcoholic in California in 2001 ,never believed a word he said ,lol

Man after my own heart 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Looking at the output, I'm not too sure all the hype in the MOD thread is justified tbh. The evolution looks messy and not much out of the ordinary tbh. 

Some areas will of course see some snow but I cannot see anything too disruptive. 

Looking likely, to me, we'll get a second go sometime later in Feb... Though I reckon Greenland heights are on the menu on that occasion. 

[Chris.R]

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Sunday and Monday are expected to be mostly dry and rather cold. Snow is likely on Tuesday anywhere away from the coast, though how widely it settles is uncertain.

 

WTF!!!! The Met  have got it in for me. In -10 850s...what is that forecaster on!! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Next week's cold and snow potential looks to be shortlived if the 0z suites are close to the mark.

By day 6 the jet is powering over the top of any blocking 

I have a feeling it'll be later Feb when we get blocking aligning in our favour.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, CreweCold said:

Next week's cold and snow potential looks to be shortlived if the 0z suites are close to the mark.

By day 6 the jet is powering over the top of any blocking 

I have a feeling it'll be later Feb when we get blocking aligning in our favour.

Well you got me completely confused by that post Crewe?

Looks cold to very cold all week from sunday through to friday? Thats 6 days???

[Cheshire Freeze]

5 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Well you got me completely confused by that post Crewe?

Looks cold to very cold all week from sunday through to friday? Thats 6 days???

Look at the charts posted...we're in a mean westerly flow by day 6...

Might be cold (most especially at night) courtesy of stagnant cold pooling from E then via NW but by day 6 we're struggling on the UKMO, GFS and GEM. In fact, the GEM turns out really quite zonal.

Day 7 GFS is ok though...50/50 as to what happens next

Key to remember, -8 uppers might look pretty on a chart but for low lying NW England -8 uppers of a PM origin don't always deliver snow (as many have found out this winter). -8 uppers from a polar continental source and we're laughing.

Edited February 2, 2018 by CreweCold

[Mucka]

47 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

Look at the charts posted...we're in a mean westerly flow by day 6...

Might be cold (most especially at night) courtesy of stagnant cold pooling from E then via NW but by day 6 we're struggling on the UKMO, GFS and GEM. In fact, the GEM turns out really quite zonal.

Day 7 GFS is ok though...50/50 as to what happens next

Key to remember, -8 uppers might look pretty on a chart but for low lying NW England -8 uppers of a PM origin don't always deliver snow (as many have found out this winter). -8 uppers from a polar continental source and we're laughing.

Those -8 uppers and associated front ahead of it are running into a stagnant cold pool - it is a world of difference.

It will be snow anywhere away from coast IMO.

It may or may not warm up later in the period but before that there could be 2 snow events and temps should be close to freezing.

Maybe if I was in the S I would be more circumspect but I think you are being pessimistic with your assessment here crew.

We often wait years for cold spells like this to materialise so I hope you are wrong.

[northwestsnow]

33 minutes ago, Mucka said:

Those -8 uppers and associated front ahead of it are running into a stagnant cold pool - it is a world of difference.

It will be snow anywhere away from coast IMO.

It may or may not warm up later in the period but before that there could be 2 snow events and temps should be close to freezing.

Maybe if I was in the S I would be more circumspect but I think you are being pessimistic with your assessment here crew.

We often wait years for cold spells like this to materialise so I hope you are wrong.

Absolutely agree with that post Dave.

Maybe crewe will be correct but i feel this will be a notable cold spell spanning 5 or 6 days ..that initself is an achievement in this day and age.

Wrt tues fingers crossed ..

:-)

[severe snowstorm]

Snow event still showing for Tuesday on GFS. Being pessimistic, I presume there is a chance that this could end up not reaching us at all because the block is too strong or fizzle out quickly in-situ when coming up against the block. Angle of attack from NW is good for here, as has been the case in the past, but still the dreaded SE flow and potential rain shadow effect for a short period at least. At least lots of potential interest showing in the models. 

[northwestsnow]

41 minutes ago, Dexter said:

Snow event still showing for Tuesday on GFS. Being pessimistic, I presume there is a chance that this could end up not reaching us at all because the block is too strong or fizzle out quickly in-situ when coming up against the block. Angle of attack from NW is good for here, as has been the case in the past, but still the dreaded SE flow and potential rain shadow effect for a short period at least. At least lots of potential interest showing in the models. 

Tues is absolutely crucial in determining how the rest of the week pans out actually.

EC disrupts the trough out west whereas GFS brings it across the country.

The knock on effect of the GFS is the colder uppers are mixed out by thur, the EC keeps it frigidly cold right into next weekend as the scandy high can exert much more influence.

Basically its either a snowy day tues and a return to something less cold by thur/fri or we scarifice tues ala ECM but stay bitterly cold out to day 10 and beyond.

Have to say i would happily sacrifice tues for what ECM is showing (we get hammered with snow later in the week anyway).

 

[Day 10]

4 hours ago, Chris.R said:

Outlook for Sunday to Tuesday:

Sunday and Monday are expected to be mostly dry and rather cold. Snow is likely on Tuesday anywhere away from the coast, though how widely it settles is uncertain.

 

WTF!!!! The Met  have got it in for me. In -10 850s...what is that forecaster on!! 

Well mate, still worth posting these kind of charts as we definitely have a chance.

Two possible bands of snow could move south next week, very interesting to see what happens!

[frosty ground]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

Look at the charts posted...we're in a mean westerly flow by day 6...

Might be cold (most especially at night) courtesy of stagnant cold pooling from E then via NW but by day 6 we're struggling on the UKMO, GFS and GEM. In fact, the GEM turns out really quite zonal.

Day 7 GFS is ok though...50/50 as to what happens next

Key to remember, -8 uppers might look pretty on a chart but for low lying NW England -8 uppers of a PM origin don't always deliver snow (as many have found out this winter). -8 uppers from a polar continental source and we're laughing.

A mean westerly flow running into an entrenched cold pool, with additional cold following on behind.

[Backtrack]

Hmm. I may book a half day Tuesday looking at that 

[cheshire snow]

METO Warning indicating a Freezing Rain event for tomorrow with 2-3cm Snow over the Lake district Fells and the Pennines

C.S

[Mokidugway]

6 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

METO Warning indicating a Freezing Rain event for tomorrow with 2-3cm Snow over the Lake district Fells and the Pennines

C.S

Can't see freezing rain tbh

 

[pip22]

26 minutes ago, cheshire snow said:

METO Warning indicating a Freezing Rain event for tomorrow with 2-3cm Snow over the Lake district Fells and the Pennines

C.S

That's interesting. I expect some icicles forming overnight into Sunday.

[dodge]

Not really expecting anything but cold rain and sleety stuff tomorrow, but there might be a few interesting atlantic incursions next week bumping into frigid air that may produce better results.  We'll have to wait and see, if the first attempt doesn't succeed I'm sure a follow-up will at some point.  By the way, a bobby dazzler day today, the sun out in full glory.

Edited February 2, 2018 by dodgeredee

[chicken soup]

Really hope this front gets here on tuesday...it has a feb96 look about it ..my all time favourite snow event...over a foot here.

[frosty ground]

20 minutes ago, chicken soup said:

Really hope this front gets here on tuesday...it has a feb96 look about it ..my all time favourite snow event...over a foot here.

Front looks like it's gonna die a death. (IF Twitter)