North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[iand61]

9 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

Thursdays band has a far more snowy influence to it now, would not surprise me if we end up with 2 bands of snow moving through this week.

GFS

ICON

I’d take that in a heartbeat but after a winter of last minute downgrades i’m not getting the sledge out just yet.

[SP1986]

Could be an airfrost tonight as it is currently 2.1C given the time and the potential for clear skies later an air frost on the cards

[Chris.R]

 0.9°C currently. An air frost is looking likely as I expected. 

[Chris.R]

2 hours ago, Day 10 said:

I wouldn't be so certain of that yet

 Agreed, and look what’s following on behind; a pm shot with -9/-10 850s which would give snow to sea level. 

Edited February 3, 2018 by Chris.R

[Chris.R]

On Thursday the 850–1000 thickness only goes above 1300 dam for around 6 hours which is the only really marginal time. This is another useful indicator. 

[pip22]

Frosty and icy here.

GFS still show snow on Tuesday for us. As for Thursday's front it seems to be slowing down.

https://www.ventusky.com/?p=53.73;-3.26;7&l=rain-3h&t=20180206/06

 

Edited February 4, 2018 by pip22

[Chris.R]

8th air frost of the winter and coldest night since the 8th of Jan. Currently -1.1°C which might be the minimum.

Might get 3 consecutive air frosts this week if I’m lucky. 

Edited February 4, 2018 by Chris.R

[SP1986]

I cannot believe we have just missed out on an air frost here! It's 0.8C at the moment .. that said all around is covered in hoar frost so a very wintry scene which even this winter has been quite rare so it's nice to see 

Edited February 4, 2018 by SP1986

[Spah1]

42 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

8th air frost of the winter and coldest night since the 8th of Jan. Currently -1.1°C which might be the minimum.

Might get 3 consecutive air frosts this week if I’m lucky. 

Who cares about air frosts! 

I want Thursdays band to be all snow❄️❄️❄️❄️

Tuesday looks to fizzle out. Prob small flakes and grainy. May get a dusting. 

 

[pip22]

In the next few days from now I wouldn't rule out snow flurries coming over from the East.

[Mokidugway]

Complete frost whiteout ,caught me by surprise ,lol

[Day 10]

Lovely wintry looking scene here, I feel this could be the very beginning of a very good cold spell the best since 2010. Barring the odd milder blip there are a lot of factors which appear to be favourably lining up, low sunspots to blank sun, La Nina now backing off, MJO, east QBO and the prospect of a SSW and split.

The latest Met Office forecast certainly indicates and quite bullishly too, a proper cold spell from the East with the classic Atlantic fronts constantly bumping into very cold continental air before then being batted away again. I think mid Feb into March could be very interesting indeed.

Outlook for the UK over the next 6-30 days

UK Outlook for Thursday 8 Feb 2018 to Saturday 17 Feb 2018:

After a cold and frosty start on Thursday, a band of rain, sleet and snow is likely to move slowly southeastwards through the day and possibly into Friday. Into the weekend, further bands of rain, sleet and snow are likely to push southeast across the UK. Thereafter, much of this period will remain colder than normal, with the risk of snow as further frontal systems bump in to the cold air and stall across the UK. In between, there will be a mixture of sunny spells and wintry showers with the strongest winds in the north and west. Where winds fall light, there will be some severe frost. Towards the end of this period, it may turn more settled bringing more prolonged drier weather, with frost and fog becoming widespread.

UK Outlook for Sunday 18 Feb 2018 to Sunday 4 Mar 2018:

Through the rest of February it will remain cold but the weather may be more settled with widespread frost and fog overnight. This looks set to last for a while with a greater chance of easterly winds, potentially bringing some very cold weather. However, into the beginning of March, it may turn more changeable at times, although any milder and wetter spells may be fairly short-lived with temperatures generally staying colder than normal.

 

As the cold to the east intensifies expect the pattern to slowly back West with time, not worth looking past 120hrs really.

Also Tuesday could still offer a dusting for many, even this forecast has upgraded over the last few days, started off as rain, sleet & snow on the hills to rain, sleet & snow rain at the coast to now just sleet & snow. Thursday's band is still very much up for grabs too in my book, this one has far more to it too.

So a very interesting 4-6 weeks coming up.

Edited February 4, 2018 by Day 10

[cheshire snow]

@Day 10

No arguing with that mate spot on.

Going to be a very interesting few weeks coming up.

C.S

[Jan]

Cold bright and frosty here, temp was showing -1.7. 

Car window disappeared into the car door late last night it was Baltic driving home

[NO LONGER POSTING]

Delete wrong thread 

 

Edited February 4, 2018 by Surrey

[iand61]

Frosty sunny start but then it clouded over and now it’s snowing hard.

Probably only a brief shower but unexpected all the same.

[Chris.R]

@Day 10 Totally agree. There is nothing to be negative about with anything in the foreseeable future. Reading some posts on this forum recently you would think we are facing a week of drizzle and temperatures into the teens. Also you won’t find a further outlook that sounds much better than that for cold prospects. Let’s enjoy whatever we get, and try not to write off events before they’ve happened, that really annoys me. Good luck to all. :-) 

Edited February 4, 2018 by Chris.R

[Mokidugway]

19 minutes ago, Jan said:

Cold bright and frosty here, temp was showing -1.7. 

Car window disappeared into the car door late last night it was Baltic driving home

Odd question I know but  is your window problem on a merc convertible ??

[iand61]

2 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Totally agree. There is nothing to be negative about with anything in the foreseeable future. Reading some posts on this forum recently you would think we are facing a week of drizzle and temperatures into the teens. Also you won’t find a further outlook that sounds much better than that for cold prospects. Let’s enjoy whatever we get, and try not to write off events before they’ve happened, that really annoys me. Good luck to all. :-) 

I think the negativity is not to what the models are showing, it’s the fact that this winter, classic synoptics have usually ended up as downgraded rubbish.

hopefully this time will be different.

meanwhile my snow shower has been and gone but at least they are crossing the Pennines.

[Joe Bloggs]

Good news from the models for our patch today. All now show Tuesday’s front surviving across the NW with snow for many. Not a huge amount but should be a light covering for most of us. This could change yet again and is certainly not settled quite yet. Indeed the upcoming 06z runs could change things. 

The MetO UKV must have improved overnight too as it’s now showing heavy snow falling at -1C here in lowland South Manchester for Tuesday morning. 

Edited February 4, 2018 by Joe Bloggs

[Chris.R]

1 minute ago, iand61 said:

I think the negativity is not to what the models are showing, it’s the fact that this winter, classic synoptics have usually ended up as downgraded rubbish.

hopefully this time will be different.

meanwhile my snow shower has been and gone but at least they are crossing the Pennines.

 That’s what they said in January 2013 especially after the “that ecm” and look what happened after that. It’s like saying oh dear Burnley have never finished in the top half of the Premier League and every time it looks like they will they don’t so what’s the point of being a Burnley fan; you don’t say that though and they probably will this year. 

[cheshire snow]

Tweet from Fergie

Major SSW Expected

C.S

[Chris.R]

6 minutes ago, Joe Bloggs said:

Good news from the models for our patch today. All now show Tuesday’s front surviving across the NW with snow for many. Not a huge amount but should be a light covering for most of us. 

The MetO UKV must have improved overnight too as it’s now showing heavy snow falling at -1C here in lowland South Manchester for Tuesday morning. 

 Do you know which model the new BBC app uses? I’m guessing it’s not that one. I don’t like it. 

[Joe Bloggs]

5 minutes ago, Chris.R said:

 Do you know which model the new BBC app uses? I’m guessing it’s not that one. I don’t like it. 

Hi Chris

I think the BBC are continuing to use the Met data for now? The BBC app forecasts should map the MetO ones. 

[Mokidugway]

SSW been mooted for some days now , it's coming .................?