North West England Regional Discussion Thread 15/1/2018 onwards

[Spah1]

Pity it will have gone dark.

Always nice to watch snow in the day time. 

[frosty ground]

All white outside......

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

All white outside......

same here FG..

Mainly from the hail tho so that will probably melt soon..

[frosty ground]

Just now, northwestsnow said:

same here FG..

Mainly from the hail tho so that will probably melt soon..

Snow this side of town. (shaw road)

[Chris.R]

 I’m actually quite shocked. Never thought I’d see CAPE numbers like that outside of summer. Wow! So excited for this evening. 

[WillinGlossop]

Heavyish/moderate snow showers this morning giving transient coverings.... maybe 1cm on grass.... slushy deposits elsewhere.... just off over to charlesworth briefly.... hopefully more of interest later on... if convective potential can perk up as Chris R points to then should be very interesting later on.... 

[WillinGlossop]

Ps really heavy snow 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Chris.R said:

 I’m actually quite shocked. Never thought I’d see CAPE numbers like that outside of summer. Wow! So excited for this evening. 

Should build up some large clouds with lightning. ?

[Barmada_Casten]

Woke up to green as expected. Had short rain and hail showers so far. Not expecting much rest if today. Feel quite proud to have nailed this one and not carried away with it.....

[karyo]

Hail and snow in Piccadilly

[Spah1]

I'm just currently catching bits of precip. 

It will be snow if I catch a big intense one. 

[Chris.R]

8 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Should build up some large clouds with lightning. ?

 With those numbers I would expect reports of  very large hail with frequent lightning very  lightly.  possibly several strikes a minute in some cells. 

Edited January 16, 2018 by Chris.R

[severe snowstorm]

Manchester Airport TAF still going for heavy snow showers. Start time just shifted back by 2 hours to 18:00.

[northwestsnow]

Majority of the hail/snow has melted-

Need lower temps and a lot more shower activity!

[Deep Snow please]

This evening into tomorrow morning looks best, only hope is it doesn't turn to sleet over night so that it can be enjoyed tomorrow. Current forecast is for it to start turning to sleet at 2-3am, after eight hours of snow.

[karyo]

Just now, Deep Snow please said:

This evening into tomorrow morning looks best, only hope is it doesn't turn to sleet over night so that it can be enjoyed tomorrow. Current forecast is for it to start turning to sleet at 2-3am, after eight hours of snow.

Yes slightly higher uppers and dewpoints are expected by tomorrow morning so probably back to sleet/hail or even rain on low ground and by the sea.

[northwestsnow]

radar showing a bit more activity in the irish sea now-

[Deep Snow please]

Well at least some heavy precip has materialised. Albeit sleet and graupel

Edited January 16, 2018 by Deep Snow please

[Iceaxecrampon]

3 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

radar showing a bit more activity in the irish sea now-

Yes - ppn over NI as Snow - last few hour frames Irish Sea seems to evaporate - heres hoping it is finally alive.

[Snow free zone]

Looks like those inland could be in for quite a decent snow event overnight.  Its not often we get snow forecast for here so inland it looks like a dead cert. 

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/public/weather/forecast/gcw1fe28j#?date=2018-01-16

 

 

[northwestsnow]

Irish sea defo getting a bit more lively..

Fingers crossed peeps..

[karyo]

The updated euro 4 has corrected south tomorrow night's low. We still have a chance.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Staying as snow in Cumbria and the North Pennines.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=48&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Edited January 16, 2018 by karyo

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, karyo said:

The updated euro 4 has corrected south tomorrow night's low. We still have a chance.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

Thats great news mate

Another 30 miles and its bingo

PS still think those with decent altitude might see snow wed night ..

[northwestsnow]

3 minutes ago, karyo said:

The updated euro 4 has corrected south tomorrow night's low. We still have a chance.

http://www.weatheronline.co.uk/cgi-bin/expertcharts?LANG=en&MENU=0000000000&CONT=ukuk&MODELL=euro4&MODELLTYP=1&BASE=-&VAR=prty&HH=42&ZOOM=0&ARCHIV=0&RES=0&WMO=&PERIOD=

shows heavy snow over my locale that!!

[karyo]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Thats great news mate

Another 30 miles and its bingo

PS still think those with decent altitude might see snow wed night ..

This latest shift south is crucial because if you see the 42 hour chart, the flow from the Irish sea gets cut off for a time and therefore we lose the moderation despite the higher uppers.

The Aprege has also shifted south but not as much unfortunately.