The Midlands Regional Weather Discussion 19/01/2018 Onwards

[Gustywind]

41 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Think it'll be the coldest late February cold spell since 1986.

1986 was pants, bitterly cold, frosty, but far too dry!

[Staffordshire]

14 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Couldn't draw better 

Indicative of a wash streamer.

[Gustywind]

15 minutes ago, weirpig said:

Couldn't draw better 

LOL. Settling in places! It’ll be settling everywhere if anything like the forecast temperatures comes off. 

[Staffordshire]

46 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

My hope is we get somewhere in the region of 5-10cms between Mon - Thurs, from snow showers, troughs etc, minimal melt due to v.low temps and dew points assisting the above.

Then at the end of the week we get the Iberian low drift up towards us, deep but not too deep so it stalls over the southern half of the U.K., dumping approx 1 foot of snow over the Midlands, in near blizzard conditions the likes of which haven’t been seen in years.

Front then moves away eastwards leaving us back in a gentle Easterly flow for a few days before Iberian low the sequel on Tues/We’d the following week, which brings a repeat performance.

Not to shoot you down GW, but I think that is very optimistic, maybe up to 5cm in places from showers, maybe 10cm for someone in the line of a wash streamer.

 

Friday low likely to stay down south unfortunately.

[Gustywind]

Not according to the GFS! But no I agree it’s likely to stay further south, probably 30% chance I reckon that it hits the Mids.

[shaky]

That gfs and ukmo was just ridiculously cold!!starts snowing sunday night and doesnt stop forever lol!!!over to you ecm to finish things off!!!

[Staffordshire]

17 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

Not according to the GFS! But no I agree it’s likely to stay further south, probably 30% chance I reckon that it hits the Mids.

GFS is overly progressive unfortunately, very much can ceoubt the Atlantic willl have such an easy time getting through (although I would not mind the GFS verifying)

[cyclonic happiness]

26 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

LOL. Settling in places! It’ll be settling everywhere if anything like the forecast temperatures comes off. 

they don't seem to be able to use the term 'band of snow, or even 'there'll be snow pushing across the country'  , it always seems to be 'showers' now, even if you have had 10 hours of snowfall straight 

[I remember Atlantic 252]

end of week low, looks potentially amazing on 12Z, if anything though a bit too far north and west, but better than 06Z which had it missing this area

[kar999]

We got snowed-in here on March 23 2013 after a low moved North into the bitter Easterly....

More of the same next Friday?

From March 2013...

https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/interesting/march2013-snow

Edited February 23, 2018 by kar999

[Snowyowl9]

42 minutes ago, Gustywind said:

1986 was pants, bitterly cold, frosty, but far too dry!

Not here 6 inches which had frozen so whatever snow/lots of snowgrains fell on just slid off as a blizzard in the easterly gales,this looks much snowier I agree for low ground.

[Gustywind]

1 minute ago, Snowyowl9 said:

Not here 6 inches which had frozen so whatever snow/lots of snowgrains fell on just slid off as a blizzard in the easterly gales,this looks much snowier I agree for low ground.

Don’t think we had anything like that Birmingham way, although I was only 12 at the time! Just remember frost, loads of frost that resembled snow cover almost it was so thick.

[andy_leics22]

Next week looks interesting. Veeery interesting

[I remember Atlantic 252]

signs of the beast already, that continental look out there, hazy skies, disc sun, when beast arrives not sure if skies go bluer, as it's polar continental

[BleakMidwinter]

Ummm... 



(yes, I know, out in FI  )

[Ian Ballinger]

Model threads quiet tonight, everyone run out of things to say?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

EC 12Z, looks amazing, but could be too far south for north of region to join in?

[sawan]

Midlands thread unusually quiet, I wonder everyone in the Southeast thread? :

[sawan]

3 minutes ago, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

EC 12Z, looks amazing, but could be too far south for north of region to join in?

It's still uncertain, most probably EC evolution will win out, too far south. South and East will get dumping of the life time 

[Rich_T]

Derby/Burton/Nottingham snow shield currently going up

[Walsall Wood Snow]

1 hour ago, Gustywind said:

Don’t think we had anything like that Birmingham way, although I was only 12 at the time! Just remember frost, loads of frost that resembled snow cover almost it was so thick.

Although I don't remember, been less than a year old at the time (born late March 85) I've seen photos of me in the living room at the time and the windows behind me looked pretty icy looking, so I imagine it would have been quite white outside from frost alone. Hope we get some (actually a lot) of snow during this spell though at some point. A very cold spell without lots of snow wouldn't be the best in my opinion. But who knows yet.

[Cov87]

30 minutes ago, sawan said:

It's still uncertain, most probably EC evolution will win out, too far south. South and East will get dumping of the life time 

Need it shifting northwards...southern areas atm look.like gettin a massive dumping looks like west mids staying dry atm ?

[I remember Atlantic 252]

2 minutes ago, Cov87 said:

Need it shifting northwards...southern areas atm look.like gettin a massive dumping looks like west mids staying dry atm ?

quite a long way north actually, agree with staying dry Thurs-Sat, but hopefully snow Mon-Wed off the N Sea

[Cov87]

Just now, I remember Atlantic 252 said:

quite a long way north actually, agree with staying dry Thurs-Sat, but hopefully snow Mon-Wed off the N Sea

Oh well we had our fun in december lol...

[Arctic Hare]

43 minutes ago, Ian Ballinger said:

Model threads quiet tonight, everyone run out of things to say?

Not worth the effort with those same old, same old charts. Who cares about pathetic -15 uppers? Wake me up when the -50 isotherm arrives. 

Currently 1.6 °C here. We were well below zero by this time last night, so breaking the -5 barrier might have to wait a day or two longer.