Model output discussion - proper cold spell inbound?

[Day 10]

1 minute ago, Ice Day said:

Oh go on then, why not.  How about this at 384.  A mere 16 days away.

 

Such a good finish we said it twice

[Chevron12345]

9 minutes ago, Day 10 said:

The good trends out in FI continue

Why do you say that? In relation to what? A SSW? Trends of what exactly? Please can you clarify. Im looking for a massive greenie high please not a scandi personally. Do you get Greenie highs from a SSW?

Edited February 4, 2018 by Chevron12345

[Frosty.]

What a fantastic trend from the GFS 12z op which follows through on its 00z potential with setting up a locked in very wintry Easterly pattern, similar to the GEFS 6z charts I posted earlier..?? this smokin  run!❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄❄

[Met4Cast]

3 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Why do you say that? In relation to what? A SSW? Trends of what exactly? Please can you clarify. Im looking for a massive greenie high please not a scandi personally. Do you get Greenie highs from a SSW?

The trends for continuation of cold - With the MJO & expected SSW, the vortex is likely to fragment/rapidly weaken. You can get Greenie highs from SSW but given the position of the SSW and the current position of the Vortex, it's more likely to result in a stronger Scandi high

[bluearmy]

If anyone can say otherwise , would love to hear but I don’t see the evolution of that gfs op to be a typical qtr - simply a consequence of the zonal flow slackening further down and allowing some amplification.  

[Snowy L]

Looks like the final big transfer of energy from west to east by the dying vortex takes place between day 8 and 10. Should hopefully see the heights building at the end of the ECM run if all goes well.

[nick sussex]

If theres a favourable response to the SSW then from the current set up you would normally see Scandi high then retrogression to northerly set up and rinse and repeat.

Sustainable cold in the UK has to have a signal for some higher latitude blocking.

If you look back through all decent cold spells in the UK you do see that rinse repeat scenario because the NH is predisposed to blocking so you get Scandi high which then pulls west with trough drop down in that region then a northerly by way of blocking near Greenland.

 

 

[Chevron12345]

22 minutes ago, Daniel Smith said:

The trends for continuation of cold - With the MJO & expected SSW, the vortex is likely to fragment/rapidly weaken. You can get Greenie highs from SSW but given the position of the SSW and the current position of the Vortex, it's more likely to result in a stronger Scandi high

Those charts dont show it fragmented. Still looks strong over over canada and greenland. Not sure the charts posted bear any relation to the effects of a SSW.

[Frosty.]

It's funny that I'm posting Gfs 12z T+384 charts and never even mentioned the largely wintry week right in front of us

Enjoy the snow in the southeast tonight / tomorrow morning which is followed by a very cold tues / wed!

[Snowy L]

3 minutes ago, Chevron12345 said:

Those charts dont show it fragmented. Still looks strong over over canada and greenland. Not sure the charts posted bear any relation to the effects of a SSW.

The SSW hasnt happened yet and it wont happen until later next week. Also the split will still leave a sizeable lobe over the East Canada region (in the stratosphere at least). SSW does not mean the complete absence of lows over Greenland/Canada. In fact the Jan 2013 SSW still had a big Greenland vortex with a raging Atlantic but Scandi Highs managed to push the Atlatic lows back a lot of the time.

Edited February 4, 2018 by Snowy L

[Allseasons-Si]

I am so annoyed,just took me a good 20 minutes or so to wright a post out then my keyboard packs up,so having to right it all out again,so frustrated

good job i had another keyboard

so here it is again

what i liked about the 06z was from t60 onwards a trough drops down across the uk then heads east towards Denmark and then into central europe,and from there it starts to back west again towards northern Italy and back towards Denmark on the southern flank of the high,it then grinds to a hault by another through disruption SW of the uk,you can see the cool pool backing west at the same time,as for the strat,i am not all that clued up but is that a part of the pv chunk backing west into europe then through the uk into the atlantic(correct me if i am wrong),still learning

as can be seen,we do have a warming on the 10 hpa but only a small one

the 12z does the same as the 06z with the cool pool backing west in FL,good consistancy there

Edited February 4, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[TEITS]

I will happily take the GEFS control.

I wonder how many GEFS runs will bring upper temps below -15C over the next few days in F.I? Maybe a few -18C!

[Allseasons-Si]

13 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

If theres a favourable response to the SSW then from the current set up you would normally see Scandi high then retrogression to northerly set up and rinse and repeat.

Sustainable cold in the UK has to have a signal for some higher latitude blocking.

If you look back through all decent cold spells in the UK you do see that rinse repeat scenario because the NH is predisposed to blocking so you get Scandi high which then pulls west with trough drop down in that region then a northerly by way of blocking near Greenland.

 

 

Yes Nick,the control does this,my word

STUNNING

[bluearmy]

There are several gefs members showing a qtr where we see a neg AO and some HLB suddenly establishing 

[ALL ABOARD]

4 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

There are several gefs members showing a qtr where we see a neg AO and some HLB suddenly establishing 

Any examples blue? Just so we can learn some more. 

[Chesil View]

Well I don,t normally look beyond 144 on the gfs or the ecm with any sense belief but tonights gfs 12z is interesting because to me at least it does fit with what all the

progged back ground signals as well as glosea and the met office long ranger. The met office are loathe to go too strong on wintery outlooks at the best of times so in that sense the current mid term and longer range outlook is exceptionally bullish suggesting high confidence in such an outcome.

[Allseasons-Si]

 

4 minutes ago, ALL ABOARD said:

Any examples blue? Just so we can learn some more. 

Hers one for ya AA

P12

 

Edited February 4, 2018 by Allseasons-si

[MattStoke]

Final frame of the Euro4 12z run. This for Tuesday's front.

[Jason M]

As mentioned yesterday, GEM ensemble suite has been bullish since yesterday morning on mid month. Obviously the specifics are irrelevant at such long range and it could easily go pear shaped but I'm more interested in the potential down the line than this week (which is really a very ordinary cold spell indeed).

[ICE COLD]

22 minutes ago, TEITS said:

I will happily take the GEFS control.

I wonder how many GEFS runs will bring upper temps below -15C over the next few days in F.I? Maybe a few -18C!

Purt 12 brings in -14 to -15 . Let's hope these keep coming ?

[Leon1]

all these graphs look very interesting but im just going to keep an eye on them because we all know that things over 2 or 3 days away are subject to change, but they do look cool though dont they!

[WalsallWeather123]

Can't see a possible snow event on thursday as GFS suggests. With those uppers only rain.

[Dennis]

16 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

 

Hers one for ya AA

P12

 

this is he strato -run ; very nice

[CK1981]

47 minutes ago, Frosty. said:

It's funny that I'm posting Gfs 12z T+384 charts and never even mentioned the largely wintry week right in front of us

Enjoy the snow in the southeast tonight / tomorrow morning which is followed by a very cold tues / wed!

Yes, but this week Isn’t looking as great now mate. It’s all been watered down a lot, unfortunately 

[nick sussex]

ECM and GFS versus the UKMO at T120hrs .

Trough disruption further west on the former .