May 2018 C.E.T. forecasts and optional EWP contest

[Roger J Smith]

(a) CET May averages and other statistics

___ table includes all CET values for the period 1981 to 2017 ___

(posting a bit early due to planned vacation time)

 

Extreme warmth

21.2 ... warmest daily mean (29th, 1780)

20.0 ... 15th (1833) earliest 20.0 CET day.

Warmest months and warmest third of recent May CET (12/37)

15.1 (1833)
13.9 (1848)
13.8 (1758, 1788)
13.7 (1808)
13.6 (1727, 1992)

13.5 (1784, 1868, 1919, 1947)

13.4 ... 2008 (tied with 1726, 1952)

13.2 ... 2017

13.1 ... 1998

13.0 ... 1989

12.9 ... 1999

12.6 ... 1990, 2001

12.5 ... 2016

12.3 ... 2006

12.2 ... 2011, 2014

Averages and middle third of recent May CET (13/37)

12.1 ... 2000, 2003, 2004, 2009 

12.0 ... ... ... 2001-2017 average

11.9 ... 1988, 2007  _ _ 1988-2017 average _ _ and 1991-2017 average (converging on future 1991-2020 average)

11.8 ... 2002

11.7 ... 1981-2010 average and 1986-2015 average, 2012 CET

11.6 ... 1982, 1995

11.5 ... 1997

11.4 ... 1993, 2005 .. 1901-2000 average

11.3 ... 1971-2000 average, 1701-1800 average

11.2 ... 1981 ... 1961-1990 average, 1659-2017 average of all data

11.1 ... 1986 ... 1801-1900 average

10.9 ... 1985

10.8 ... 1991, 2015

10.7 ... 1994, 2010 ... 1659-1700 average

Coldest Months and coldest third of recent May CET (12/37 starting at 11.2^^)

10.4 ... 2013

10.3 ... 1983

10.1 ... 1987

 9.9 ... 1984

 9.1 ... 1996 tied 13th coldest with two other years, the coldest in recent years)

 8.9 ... 1879, 1885, 1902 tied 5th coldest

 8.8 ... 1855 was 4th coldest

 8.7 ... 1817 was 3rd coldest

 8.6 ... 1740 was 2nd coldest

 8.5 ... 1698 was coldest

 

Extreme cold

3.5 .... mean for 3-5 May, 1877

2.9 .... coldest daily mean (8th, 1861)

___________________________________

Post your May CET forecasts before end of day Monday 30th of April to avoid time penalty, or in first three days of May with increasing late penalties.

______________________________________

 

(b) England and Wales precip contest 

Note: this is verified against the "alternative data set" of the UK Met Office (1910 to present), not the Hadley EWP (1766 to present), reason being that Hadley EWP is sometimes quite late to appear. These tables show you the extremes from both sets but the averages only from the contest-usage UKMO set, which so far have been just slightly lower averages and recorded values for our contest by a matter of perhaps 3 to 5 per cent. Anyway, the results would be similar with either set in use, but that's how I decided to go when the January values from Hadley (which I began the contest using) did not appear by mid-February and I was alerted to this alternate series which does get updated quite early in the month. 

The contest asks you to predict the average England and Wales precip in mm. These are the extreme values and recent averages. The extreme values presented are from the 1910 to 2017 Met Office series, the corresponding values from the Hadley series appear in brackets in the same entry lines for 1910-present and in separate entry lines for 1766 to present if those from 1766 to 1909 are more extreme, lack of a reference means that they were not more extreme. In May there were two cases at each end of the spectrum more extreme than the 1910-present data.

 

151.8 ___ (max 1766-present Hadley in 1773) _ 142.4 in 1782 the only other Hadley May wetter than 1967.

133.7 ___ maximum 1910-present in 1967 (Hadley max in same period 140.7 also 1967)

110.3 ___ maximum 1981-present in 1983 -- 2007 was close at 110.1 (Hadley max 118.4 in 2007, 115.2 in 1983)

 61.1 ___ average 1981-2010 and also 1988-2017

 13.9 ___ minimum 1981-present and 1910-present also was in 1991 (Hadley min 13.7 also 1991)

 07.9 ___ (min 1766-present, Hadley, in 1844) _ 12.0 in 1896 the only other Hadley May drier than 1991.

 ________________________________________________________________

Enter the EWP contest in the same post as your CET temperature forecast. Scores are by rank order out of 10.0, 0.2 penalties per day late (0300h 1st May is deadline and 0300h 4th is the absolute cut-off time. 

... Good luck in both contests ... 

 

Edited April 18, 2018 by Roger J Smith

[Lettucing Gutted]

Rest in pieces 'spring' 2018!  17.5C    Last sub 9C May in 1902.  Last sub 10C May in 1996.  Last sub 11C May in 2015.

200mm from monsoons and Atlantic garbage!

[B87]

12.2c and 45 mm

[I remember Atlantic 252]

10.7C, vile, low pressure to dominate month, mainly E, N or NW winds

[LetItSnow]

11.3°C and 71.5mm. Average start, quite warm/very warm spell around the middle then very cool close to the end.

Edited April 18, 2018 by LetItSnow!

[chrisbell-nottheweatherman]

11.5C and 70.8mm, please.

[pegg24]

12.6c 87mm please 

[Weather26]

12.8c and 68.8mm please

[simshady]

9.2c and 85mm please.

[JeffC]

12.2C and 70 mm please

[Bobd29]

12.0 and 83mm please

[Midlands Ice Age]

11.4C and 72.0mms please.

MIA

[BlueHedgehog074]

11.2*C please. On the whole, feel like it will be a mixed month, but perhaps a little drier than average with 60mm rainfall.

Edited April 19, 2018 by DiagonalRedLine

[Polar Gael]

13.0C and 50.1mm for me please. 

[Radiating Dendrite]

13.4c and 41mm

[TJM14]

12.4c and  68mm

[BLAST FROM THE PAST]

Month dominated by HP to W and NW bringing flow from Northern quadrant.  Could be notable month for how cool it will be but fairly dry, particularly W and NW U.K.  For me we are heading down with this year part of the step down.  It has potential to knock on records door......but due to the general ‘warmth’ starting point it will be notable more so for current times.

 

9.4c. And 34mm

 

BFTP

[Dami]

hello

I would like 11.9 and 58mm

cheers.

[CheesepuffScott]

11.8c and 64mm

[Lf1002]

12.5c and 39 mm

[Relativistic]

I'll take 9.9C and 100mm please.

[DR(S)NO]

12.2c and 77.7 mm thank you please

[SteveB]

13.1C & 120mm please.

[Robbie Garrett]

10.5c and 97mm

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

12.8C and 76mm please