Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

GEFS 18Z     

 

something I will be looking out for over the next couple of days - those lows that develop to the NW / W of the UK (potential sliders) to be modeled slightly less deep on more ensembles / GFS op and a bit further out in the Atlantic giving better chances of a colder flow being pulled in a bit similar to P6 in my last post, P19 shows an example of the deeper low scenario  which fails to pull in the colder air / become a slider.

[Guest Delete Me]

Member 19 looks nasty!

[kumquat]

Para finally smells the coffee

Edited January 11, 2019 by kumquat

[Allseasons-Si]

1 hour ago, karlos1983 said:

And relax 

I have just joined the party and a few words to sum up above:-

=46 days of cold and snow and then some,fantastic update that and as GP mentioned,the blocks are in the right place and scream's NE/E winds

if these charts come to surpass then we are going to need a bigger boat,i mean sledge

 

[Allseasons-Si]

19 minutes ago, kumquat said:

Para finally smells the coffee

Lets just hope it's not been on the poppy

cracking chart from the parra/FV3.

Edit:if this was to come off,that wouldn't be a sinking high and would produce a Scandi ridge with easterlies or northeasterlies and would match the week two>three ec46.

Edited January 11, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[Allseasons-Si]

And the final frame suggestive of that i just mentioned ^

[northwestsnow]

GEFS look a decent upgrade ...

[Allseasons-Si]

7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GEFS look a decent upgrade ...

Yes looking good that,just need the op and control(party poopers) to join the party 18th> and that mean would be colder,still below -5 is good enough but i want colder

 it's irrelivant as there is scatter before the 18th anyway,i hope it becomes clearer/cleaner cut to cold in the morning.

[nick sussex]

Only just catching up with all the outputs .

Getting there slowly . It seems to have taken an age!

In terms of slider low gate ! These are fun to watch if you’re in the right place . You generally need a shallow feature , two reasons , the cold doesn’t get mixed out and it won’t miss the UK .

The deeper the attempted slider the less it slides ! The set up doesn’t quite look right yet though and it’s still a way out .

Something to look for if it’s still showing up in the outputs . This place though is likely to turn into an emotional rollercoaster if it does appear as the snow will appear on its eastern flank and each run will be dissected with a microscope to see who gets the snow .

 

[Allseasons-Si]

11 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Only just catching up with all the outputs .

Getting there slowly . It seems to have taken an age!

In terms of slider low gate ! These are fun to watch if you’re in the right place . You generally need a shallow feature , two reasons , the cold doesn’t get mixed out and it won’t miss the UK .

The deeper the attempted slider the less it slides ! The set up doesn’t quite look right yet though and it’s still a way out .

Something to look for if it’s still showing up in the outputs . This place though is likely to turn into an emotional rollercoaster if it does appear as the snow will appear on its eastern flank and each run will be dissected with a microscope to see who gets the snow .

 

Slider snow gate i would hope for

nice to here from you again Nick

the models(medium to long range anayway)have been showing sliders for the last few days with increment height's to our NW/N/NE forcing them on a tradjectory NW>SE,to me this has a bigger margine for error and we could see several bowts of snow events down the line,i see no west to east movement within systems,this place is buzzing at the moment and i am enjoying it too,the parcel is the fun getting it down to t0

and i hope the parcel opens with snow in it.

Edited January 11, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[nick sussex]

3 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Slider snow gate i would hope for

nice to here from you again Nick

the models(medium to long range anayway)have been showing sliders for the last few days with increment height's to our NW/N/NE forcing them on a tradjectory NW>SE,to me this has a bigger margine for error and we could see several bowts of snow events down the line,i see no west to east movement within systems,this place is buzzing at the moment and i am enjoying it too.

Thanks . We’ve seen many a slider and much drama in here over the years .  Glad I can be a neutral observer and not suffer the trauma ! 

[Allseasons-Si]

8 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks . We’ve seen many a slider and much drama in here over the years .  Glad I can be a neutral observer and not suffer the trauma ! 

You are not wrong there Nick,so fickle as with shortwaves at such a short timeframe,i think Dec 2017 was a headache of a slider to forecast,but some did get pasted

a headache to forecast with sliders/shortwaves in the mix coming up too i would suspect.

 

Edited January 11, 2019 by Allseasons-si

[ukpaul]

19 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

Thanks . We’ve seen many a slider and much drama in here over the years .  Glad I can be a neutral observer and not suffer the trauma ! 

The way it appears to be shaping up there may well be two or three sliders in a row, multiplying the drama! The last one possibly ‘draining’ the Canadian PV lobe or chased by a ridge being thown up behind it.

 

[The Eagle]

3 hours ago, karlos1983 said:

And relax 

Doesn't get any better than that  

Looking forward to super charts in the coming weeks.

[Dave Kightley]

UKMO 144h has cold air feeding South.. Let someone else make a judgement about the other aspects of it..Can see that low just run over the top of the ridge on that one with it ending on us again but that is a pure guess

Edited January 11, 2019 by Dave Kightley

[Ali1977]

UKMO vs GFS at T144 - not bad but the UKMO moved slightly towards the GFS , which is similar to the 18z. Still has cold air into the North at 144 though, not sure where the UKMO would go at 168  with regards a decent wedge as there’s a little spoiler Low in there.

The GFS isn’t so good up to day 8 as the cold air gets moved out by the little low, not a slider as such!!

Edited January 11, 2019 by Ali1977

[Mucka]

Very much like the UKMO 144, much less progressive than GFS and with a sharper trough over the UK - looks like it would slide further W then GFS

I suppose GFS technically delivers an Easterly before it is overrun which is interesting given how GFS loves to push the Atlantic through in FI. Good signs I think.

[Dave Kightley]

I'm not overally keen on sliders as they seem to have delivered very marginal snow events in recent times...100 per cent rather have an undercut! Would hope UKMO is correct being further west with it

Edited January 11, 2019 by Dave Kightley

[cheshire snow]

After a lot of Huffing and Puffing the GFS in FI Gives a Countrywide snow event

C.S

[Mucka]

P20 Trend setter. 

Meanwhile GFSp still trying to figure out what a slider is

But at least it is picking up a clue unlike its previous output.

Edited January 11, 2019 by Mucka

[Dave Kightley]

Other then GFS poor slider attempt is actually quite a cold run especially in FI with cold uppers in by Tuesday!! 

[Cheshire Freeze]

It's like pulling teeth getting deep cold to our shores. It'll be February before we know it.

Both the op and control go for a mid Atlantic toppler HP in FI

Edited January 11, 2019 by CreweCold

[tinybill]

http://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/gfse_cartes.php?mode=2&ech=204

still  looking good for a topple coming down the the  north from about the 20  Jan  and  rest of the UK could expect some  snow on   jan 22  onward  at the moment

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

Control may end well however...but it's deep in FI

[That ECM]

The ukmo at t144 is good. Gfs is better than it has been and not as flat as it has been and the later out put on the gfs is very interesting. The more interesting charts in fi are getting closer and is demonstrated by this mean for the 22nd. Edging forward but I do understand it’s not at the pace some would like. 

Edited January 11, 2019 by That ECM