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Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

Paul

By Paul
in Forecast Model Discussion

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Paul
Message added by Paul

Please keep this thread solely to discussing the model output. The model banter thread is available for more loosely model related chat, ramps and moans.

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Bristawl Si Maestro

Bristawl Si

Posted
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
  • Location: Stoke Gifford, nr Bristol, SGlos
Posted
27 minutes ago, BLAST FROM THE PAST said:

Greece, Lebanon, Turkey, Iran, and other associated countries plastered in bitter cold and heavy snow.  This HP has stuffed us this winter thus far. 

 

 BFTP

Agreed. A bit of a return to the early Noughties Winters.

UK no cold and snow; central & SE Europe bucket loads!

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Man With Beard Maestro

Man With Beard

Posted
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
  • Location: Drayton, Portsmouth
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Posted

ECM 12z ensembles summaries are in - London reaches close to minus 5 mean uppers by 17th and then pretty much flatlines around minus 5 all the way to the 25th. That's cold. 

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperatur850

 

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BleakMidwinter Community Regular

BleakMidwinter

Posted
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
  • Weather Preferences: Snow, ice, cold
  • Location: Telford, c.150m asl
Posted
8 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

 

Don't panic anyone! 

I do always look for your beard-pic, to read your steady and informed opinions when it gets hectic in here, you know! 

Keeps me from panicing

So... we have some frosty wintry weather starting up, which is likely to get a bit more frosty and wintry. It might get very frosty and very wintry, depending.

That about right? I'll learn to read these charts myself one of these days... 

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted
2 minutes ago, Man With Beard said:

ECM 12z ensembles summaries are in - London reaches close to minus 5 mean uppers by 17th and then pretty much flatlines around minus 5 all the way to the 25th. That's cold. 

https://weather.us/forecast/2643743-london/ensemble/euro/temperatur850

 

Excellent news thanks MIB- i am having a bit of a 'wobble' but thats a reassuring post..

EC hopefully a stonker..

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent news thanks MIB- i am having a bit of a 'wobble' but thats a reassuring post..

EC hopefully a stonker..

Is will Smith in the house

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)

 

1 minute ago, karlos1983 said:

Is will Smith in the house

LOL!!

Sorry i meant MWB !!

GFS a little better at 108 - slightly better Atlantic profile..

Edited by northwestsnow
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WINTRY WALES Aficionado

WINTRY WALES

Posted
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
  • Location: Cwmbran. South East Wales 300ft ASL
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Posted
4 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent news thanks MIB- i am having a bit of a 'wobble' but thats a reassuring post..

EC hopefully a stonker..

You are having a wobble every day ....shall rename you Northwest GFS soon  

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Glacier Point Accomplished

Glacier Point

Posted
  • Location: Worcestershire
  • Weather Preferences: Forecaster Centaurea Weather
  • Location: Worcestershire
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Posted (edited)

New EC weeks 3 and 4 as you were. High pressure in all the right places.

Edited by Glacier Point
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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
Posted (edited)
1 minute ago, WINTRY WALES said:

You are having a wobble every day ....shall rename you Northwest GFS soon  

Thats me !!

Wear heart on sleeve

Fabulous news from GP just now... feeling glad again!!

Edited by northwestsnow
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weirpig Maestro

weirpig

Posted
  • Location: Kensington
  • Location: Kensington
Posted
2 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

LOL!!

Sorry i meant MWB !!

GFS a little better at 108 - slightly better Atlantic profile..

Yep better profile uptowards greenland  expect this run to get close to the others at 144

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
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Posted (edited)

D2631589-BFA0-4CBD-87AB-DB0B1B77F70B.thumb.png.b371123cb8580f7adba3bcae9d76c8f3.png595031F2-EB08-4EC7-9A52-898DEA44411F.thumb.png.d897cb54c8a57c73d0cb4bac4cd52f72.png51345755-C8F3-4F03-9659-FFAC77F2B07A.thumb.png.1748388f83e884f6dc374d00f5b5f3ab.png442951A9-5ADE-41CC-8AB3-B1005F6D12D9.thumb.png.304fdf1f4a39149ec5add4f5510c92c1.png

And relax 

Edited by karlos1983
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markw2680 Accomplished

markw2680

Posted
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
  • Weather Preferences: the weather extremes in general but my favourites are snow & thunderstorms
  • Location: Frankley, Birmingham 250masl
Posted
7 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Excellent news thanks MIB- i am having a bit of a 'wobble' but thats a reassuring post..

EC hopefully a stonker..

You really need to relax a bit lol

im sure it will all work out in the end, well I hope so

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northwestsnow Maestro

northwestsnow

Posted
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
  • Location: Scouthead Oldham 295mASL
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Posted
Just now, markw2680 said:

You really need to relax a bit lol

im sure it will all work out in the end, well I hope so

Its just a passion, apologies if im annoying..

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Johnp Accomplished

Johnp

Posted
  • Location: North East Hampshire
  • Location: North East Hampshire
Posted
1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

STOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOONKER!!!

Woooooop!

OK, thats what we wanted to see, thanks Karlos.. ;)

Would be nice if these ever translated into an actual model run though

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Snowy L Maestro

Snowy L

Posted
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
  • Location: Burton-on-Trent (90m), Larnaka most Augusts
Posted
3 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

D2631589-BFA0-4CBD-87AB-DB0B1B77F70B.thumb.png.b371123cb8580f7adba3bcae9d76c8f3.png595031F2-EB08-4EC7-9A52-898DEA44411F.thumb.png.d897cb54c8a57c73d0cb4bac4cd52f72.png51345755-C8F3-4F03-9659-FFAC77F2B07A.thumb.png.1748388f83e884f6dc374d00f5b5f3ab.png442951A9-5ADE-41CC-8AB3-B1005F6D12D9.thumb.png.304fdf1f4a39149ec5add4f5510c92c1.png

Week 3 again for the third week in a row.

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Mucka Maestro

Mucka

Posted
  • Location: Manchester
  • Weather Preferences: Sunny and warm in the Summer, cold and snowy in the winter, simples!
  • Location: Manchester
Posted

GFS 18z has corrected previous said unlikely behaviour of upper trough, let's see how it turns out

gfsnh-0-132.png?18

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karlos1983 Maestro

karlos1983

Posted
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
  • Weather Preferences: Snowy Winters, Torrential Storm Summers
  • Location: Lytchett Matravers - 301 ft ASL
Posted (edited)
2 minutes ago, Snowy L said:

Week 3 again for the third week in a row.

Really? This isn’t bad as a start point ..

EA6F8C64-B013-42F6-99DE-621A338E1D52.thumb.png.ebeea6e7da50a414ee505f3ed7523d63.png

Raging Atlantic that is not ☝️

Edited by karlos1983
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Spah1 Accomplished

Spah1

Posted
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
  • Weather Preferences: Snow
  • Location: Clayton-le-Woods, Chorley, Lancs
Posted

27201D30-16D3-4554-92C3-9DE695A0F0DF.thumb.png.273f7c1fdb9f5900c60664a9b3e9a5dd.png

GFS now sees the ridge

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bluearmy Maestro

bluearmy

Posted
  • Location: st albans
  • Location: st albans
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Posted
2 minutes ago, Johnp said:

Would be nice if these ever translated into an actual model run though

They have been bloody consistent ..... week 6 is now week 2/3................

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Methuselah Maestro

Methuselah

Posted
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
  • Weather Preferences: Thunder, snow, heat, sunshine...
  • Location: Beccles, Suffolk.
Posted

Blimey guys, it's nae often the mood sinks during the day...But, hey, things will be worse: Adam From Westminster (AFW) will be screaming down the phone, to LBC, any minute now...

Hopefully, though, snow will be progged to fall at all levels from Day 8, come 9 a. m. tomorrow!

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