Model output discussion - 7th January onwards

[SMU]

10 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

GFS now coming into line with euro..(138).

Yep its taken a while ...

We now have pretty much a full house of models indicating the cold spell starting around T132-138 from the North-

A slow burner but certainly gathering momentum day 8/9

The only real risk is the trough axis at day 7 isnt sharp enough & the low slides East through the UK

ECM op would be bitterly cold out to day 12 at least...

[bluearmy]

Just going back to the 46, the stronger greeny high anoms are showing for post 28th ...... so don’t expect them to be showing on the back end gfs ops and gefs for a few more days yet  ( if it’s right that is) 

[weirpig]

looks like the gfs 18z is just going to barrel through the uk again with the Atlantic to our west   no hint of a slider  

Edited January 10, 2019 by weirpig

[Vikos]

26 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

 

And relax 

Hello karlos,

do you have those Charts for Mid-EU also? Or whole Europe?

regards

[Johnp]

18z was much better than the 12z until we hit lo-res, when it's now worse!

Frustrating stuff.

[karlos1983]

4 minutes ago, Vikos said:

Hello karlos,

do you have those Charts for Mid-EU also? Or whole Europe?

regards

Hi Vikos

unfortunately not. The Icelandic site we get them from only shows that area. Rest would be behind a paywall.

Edited January 10, 2019 by karlos1983

[SMU]

4 minutes ago, weirpig said:

looks like the gfs 18z is just going to barrel through the uk again with the Atlantic to our west   no hint of a slider  

Dont worry thats not a problem at all-

FI / low res 18z- it was a good attempt..

[Mike Poole]

17 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Seriously mike ..... it has predicted the set up post the 20th since mid dec ...... which other model worked out that the downwelling would be so slow????  Exeter were covering their backside re a QTR affecting nw Europe for weeks and weeks .....

Agreed, blue, but that IS all in the context of a SSW forecastable in advance, which was my point.  Maybe the only reason it goes out to 46 days is for this scenario, most other times what chance it has a clue at that range?  It has done well, possibly, but the cold and snow hasn't happened yet, so it is right that judgement be reserved for the moment! 

Edited January 10, 2019 by Mike Poole

[Man With Beard]

Latest clusters show the situation nicely. D11: all primed to give weather from a northerly direction at some point soon:

D15: excellent trough just to the east on the top two clusters, the third cluster shows the possibility of slight less cold for a while, but not that mild really even so

Though there's always a slight element of doubt so far off, we're not far off calling this now. 

[bluearmy]

Clusters do have two options out of three which are a bit flatter in the 10/12 day period ... would be no surprise to see gfs flatter in this timescale 

[Tim Bland]

7 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Yep its taken a while ...

We now have pretty much a full house of models indicating the cold spell starting around T132-138 from the North-

 

Still no cold spell from the GFS until day 10 ?

 

[weirpig]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Dont worry thats not a problem at all-

FI / low res 18z- it was a good attempt..

Oh yes im not worried  im just scratching my head  how  now it finally comes into line with the other models at 144  it somehow manages to bugger it up at 180ish  and be totally different   mind you i shoudn't be surprised  

[Vikos]

2 minutes ago, karlos1983 said:

Hi Vikos

unfortunately not. The Icelandic site we get them from only shows that area. Rest would be behind a paywall.

Thank you then for those you showed! thumbs-up

[SMU]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

Still no cold spell from the GFS until day 10 ?

 

Did you miss the bit in the middle? & just go straight to day 10?

[damianslaw]

Reading that this SSW and background base state is mirroring closely the SSW of Jan 2006 which came later in the month - I thought I would take a look at the synoptics of Feb and March 2006, and interestingly there was a long time lag before a locked in cold pattern occurred, indeed nearing on 4 weeks that time - but a change came later in Feb courtesy of low heights dropping through the UK, heights then built very quickly behind and retrogressed to the NW, pulling down a very bitter NE plunge tail end of month and into March - the atlantic attempted to break through prior to mid month, it failed and the middle to latter part of March brought a very long drawn easterly and extensive northern blocking. Cold conditions continued in April as well.. Prior to the cold arriving much of Jan and Feb saw significant mid atlantic ridge development as well.. it was a very dry winter for many, atlantic dead in the water..

Not saying this is what will happen this year, but interesting to note the time delay in the cold, but more importantly the evolution to cold, which is what is being suggested this time around, and the difference being a month earlier, so increased depth of cold more likely.

Edited January 10, 2019 by damianslaw

[feb1991blizzard]

18 minutes ago, bluearmy said:

Seriously mike ..... it has predicted the set up post the 20th since mid dec ...... which other model worked out that the downwelling would be so slow????  Exeter were covering their backside re a QTR affecting nw Europe for weeks and weeks .....

Yes, which suggests it out performed the GLOSEA5.

[Tim Bland]

Just now, Steve Murr said:

Did you miss the bit in the middle? & just go straight to day 10?

How do you define a ‘cold spell’ ? there’s no deep cold or snow shown between now and day 10 on this GFS run?

[WalsallWeather123]

Don't think many would say no to this. Countrywide snow from PM flow. Plausible outcome I would say

Edited January 10, 2019 by WalsallWeather123

[blizzard81]

Concerning that yesterday seemed to be firming up on proper cold setting in days 11 to 13 but today we are starting to see this being delayed again. Never a good sign. 

[Paul_1978]

1 hour ago, Sperrin said:

I know this is a tweet but interesting to hear a senior met man giving hints at what the UKMO model is showing past +144. 

Day 6 to 10 is 16th to 20th Jan - i don’t think anyone is worried about what happens then. It’s the post 20th/21st Jan period that is the focus. 

[ICE COLD]

JFF but yes please 

[Johnp]

2 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

How do you define a ‘cold spell’ ? there’s no deep cold or snow shown between now and day 10 on this GFS run?

Agreed - I think I'm living in a parallel universe at the moment!

[weirpig]

3 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

How do you define a ‘cold spell’ ? there’s no deep cold or snow shown between now and day 10 on this GFS run?

without nitpicking  that isntexactly true

 

Edited January 10, 2019 by weirpig

[Mucka]

6 minutes ago, Tim Bland said:

How do you define a ‘cold spell’ ? there’s no deep cold or snow shown between now and day 10 on this GFS run?

It is all about what happens with the slider, it has the potential to trigger and lock the cold.

Don't worry about deep FI too much for now though 18z is very plausible. 

Edited January 10, 2019 by Mucka

[tight isobar]

Explaining momentum-and cause of sequence..

Via dynamics-and model reading.

Its a tricky subject..to unseasoned/miss decipher model watchers..

(Within 10 day time scale)..there is an alarming jump 4 notable cold infer into (now) the northwestern quadrant of europe-uk inclusive-..for cold splliage..

And the anti is certainly uping, day 2 day -run 2 run..

Its look -chase- aknowledge-DECIPHER!!.

Game firmly on now.

Thi gs should steadily elapse/concentrate on the upper damages/dynamics...so all can relax and let the complexities unfold...with a little less tension..

Edited January 10, 2019 by tight isobar