Cold hunt - models and chat

[mountain shadow]

14 minutes ago, Weathizard said:

Imagine taking everything the Met Office further updates say as gospel, aren’t we meant to be in raging north easterlies right now according to them? I find such an experienced member making a post like this rather surprising mate tbh, it’s misleading newbies a little.

 

Just trying to control expectations. The eps are still showing no real sign of a favourable high latitude block over the next 2 to 3 weeks, therefore, the permanent NE Canadian lobe will continue to leak energy South East into the euro trough. It's hard to see how we get deeper cold from that scenario.

There will be snow and frost around but for Southern areas it's going to be difficult to get it.

 

 

Edited January 23, 2019 by mountain shadow

[swfc]

Anway icon early doors looks pretty good even at the 100 hour mark!!

[Weathizard]

I’m liking this ICON, better separation in that troughing towards Greenland might allow us to get a ridge up there sooner, interesting to see how this unfolds, for comparison...

[Weathizard]

Broadly speaking it’s good consistency from the ICON from its 0z

[phil nw.]

Let's not overlook we are cold at the moment and looking at the outputs continuing to be into February -apart from the less cold blip on Friday/Sat.

This ongoing north westerly mobile pattern will continue to offer some more frosts and snow chances at various times i am sure,maybe not the Siberian cold but for the UK Winter this spell would usually be classed as a cold spell with the temperatures 3-5c below normal.

By  Saturday the latest fax already shows another northerly setting up behind the fronts.Note the 850s coming south

Uppers around -6c/7c not to be sneezed at.

Signs over the Arctic that the trop vortex is waning further with more splitting

It's a slow process for sure but as teits(dave) posted above those pressure ens over Iceland and Scandinavia reflecting the trend to weak heights building in the background.

We continue to hope this pattern will evolve to deeper cold of course but meantime even in the shorter term it could be a lot worse with a renewal of cold on the way at the weekend.

[Banbury]

35 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

It might be positive, but the Met Office are saying no North Easterly or Easterly right out to the middle of February, for Central and Southern England this is not good news, seems quite wet and cold.

Further North will fair better, but no deep and long lasting cold with snow more prevalent over hills.

Not sure why the NEly or Ely make a difference many areas in Oxfordshire had a good covering of snow yesterday evening - I wish people would stop the fascination with winds from the East.

[swfc]

Really liking the icon esp the 850s at the end,onwards and upwards I hope!!!

[ICE COLD]

The icon finishes well . I wish it went past T180 . 

[Weathizard]

Very consistent from the ICON, I would be very happy with this output 7 days from now, and a very plausible sypnotic, it’s just a bit of a waiting game until we can get something sustained really.

[booferking]

Icon cracking run for cold and longevity..

Edited January 23, 2019 by booferking

[mountain shadow]

Just now, Banbury said:

Not sure why the NEly or Ely make a difference many areas in Oxfordshire had a good covering of snow yesterday evening - I wish people would stop the fascination with winds from the East.

Because generally, if Central and Southern England wants a more sustained deeper cold spell, then winds from the East or North East would normally be more favourable.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Icon cracking run for cold and longevity..

Its an excellent run

Hopefully the other models will upgrade too..

[mountain shadow]

1 minute ago, booferking said:

Icon cracking run for cold and longevity..

I absolutely agree that we are into a longer cold spell with below average temperatures, however, those below average temperatures do not necessarily mean deep cold and snow, we just need to be more relaxed in our expectations.

[tight isobar]

7 minutes ago, Spikey M said:

Only allowed to take them seriously if they're saying what you want to hear, obviously.

Nothing to do with met..forecast that as again shouldnt be quoted in here....

Its the bizzare miss-analysis..of-if an easterly/nor-easterly was to lap our shores..

It would be likely brutal..all synops given-..and would CERTAINLY NOT equate to cold and wet...especialy in geographicals quoted...End of !!!

[seabreeze86]

Positive start to the 12zs The ICON really is good, AO tanking, Russian high stronger and a ridge building behind the trigger low south of Greenland and of course the actual northerly its self 

[phil nw.]

Back to the models please chaps,no need for bickering.Posts like that will disappear.

Thankyou

[Stormeh]

Yes the ICON looking great, look at the heights pushing into Greenland

[Banbury]

4 minutes ago, mountain shadow said:

Because generally, if Central and Southern England wants a more sustained deeper cold spell, then winds from the East or North East would normally be more favourable.

You could aim that at most of the UK but once the jet goes South and we are on the cold side NWlies will do , followed by slack winds and overnight low temps and repeat and repeat 

[booferking]

1 minute ago, mountain shadow said:

I absolutely agree that we are into a longer cold spell with below average temperatures, however, those below average temperatures do not necessarily mean deep cold and snow, we just need to be more relaxed in our expectations.

If its the same 850s which we had this week then its snow and it looks like they will be similar maybe even colder as we go on so all in all i will take that over south-westerlies any day.

 

[swfc]

Gfs producers a low from out of the blue at 42 hours???not sure how that will affect the ridging but its there eitherway which it wasn't on the 6z

Edited January 23, 2019 by swfc

[Deep Snow please]

2 minutes ago, Stormeh said:

Yes the ICON looking great, look at the heights pushing into Greenland

Am I right in thinking that would be a genuine nationwide snow event of some magnitude as that low passes through?

[frosty ground]

2 minutes ago, swfc said:

Gfs producers a low from out of the blue at 42 hours???not sure how that will affect the ridging but its there eitherway

It's certainly more developed  

Edited January 23, 2019 by frosty ground

[mountain shadow]

2 minutes ago, booferking said:

If its the same 850s which we had this week then its snow and it looks like they will be similar maybe even colder as we go on so all in all i will take that over south-westerlies any day.

 

Too right, but without proper Northerly blocking we leave ourselves open to the Atlantic and associated mild sectors.

[Catacol]

Interesting little runner has appeared at 48h. Any chance it might come in at the right angle for us snow starved SW folk?

 

[markw2680]

1 hour ago, Jason74 said:

The worrying is that I still (foolishly) allow myself to be reeled in. Like a fish on a hook. Even after 6 or 7 years of being on here. 

You ent the only one, I see a few runs saying the same kind of thing and that’s it I tell the mrs it’s gona be freezing with loads of snow likely and then the next morning I make out like I never said such a thing