Cold hunt - models and chat

[Updated_Weather]

Think some people need NIck to come in and shed some light and cheer people up!

[Froze were the Days]

37 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

I like UKMO 144..

Should go colder from there..

Personally don't see it...Azores slug will stay in situ, and just watch that Canadian PV lobe extend itself!

[CSC]

Through experience many know that looking for details past 120h is pointless for GFS a lot of the time. It is mainly about looking at trends at this stage and seeing where the weather looks to be heading.

For me, there is no sign of a 'trend' at this moment because the last two GFS operational runs have been so different that you cannot take one literally, or, even begin to estimate where the chance of snow may be possible.

Hence why, I advise everyone, to wait not only until the ensembles but the ECM later before getting too worried about 'no chance of snow' for the south of the UK.

There is no certainly past 120h so please people stop being so pessimistic 

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

And your thoughts if its at the top end of the ENS?

Knee jerk reaction or what - I do wonder 

The thing I'd say to that is the op ECM backs it (and has done now for 4 runs), as did nearly 50% of its ensembles...as does the UKMO 12z to an extent. Itsd certainly looking increasingly probable that this is the evolution it takes.

Indeed if that is the way it goes I would not rule out an easterly still at some point...but based on the lack of cold air around, probably one of those useless types!

[Guest]

1 minute ago, kold weather said:

The thing I'd say to that is the op ECM backs it (and has done now for 4 runs), as did nearly 50% of its ensembles...as does the UKMO 12z to an extent. Itsd certainly looking increasingly probable that this is the evolution it takes.

Indeed if that is the way it goes I would not rule out an easterly still at some point...but based on the lack of cold air around, probably one of those useless types!

A warm Easterly in time for spring is my guess (hope).

[frosty ground]

Worst run Ever

[Banbury]

Just now, kold weather said:

The thing I'd say to that is the op ECM backs it (and has done now for 4 runs), as did nearly 50% of its ensembles...as does the UKMO 12z to an extent. Itsd certainly looking increasingly probable that this is the evolution it takes.

Indeed if that is the way it goes I would not rule out an easterly still at some point...but based on the lack of cold air around, probably one of those useless types!

Don't give a damn about an Easterly its the comments on 222h that are laughable , the 12z isn't just the OP, its the whole GEFS including the Para and seeing where it sits 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, DCee said:

A warm Easterly in time for spring is my guess (hope).

No need to wait

[Penicuikblizzard]

26 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Anything more concrete other than just guess work?

Lower 850’tps in the north should be snow at modest elevation to be honest 

[kold weather]

Just now, DCee said:

A warm Easterly in time for spring is my guess (hope).

Out to 300hrs and indeed a useless easterly has arrived, probably very dull and cloudy with grains of snow. Nice warm surge coming into southern Europe as well by the way!

 

[Penicuikblizzard]

1 minute ago, frosty ground said:

Worst run Ever

Still at that magic 10day number

[Mr Frost]

2 minutes ago, MidnightSnow said:

Tears in my eyes with laughter here! 

Top knotch banter @Froze were the Days

Edited January 23, 2019 by Mr Frost

[kold weather]

1 minute ago, Banbury said:

Don't give a damn about an Easterly its the comments on 222h that are laughable , the 12z isn't just the OP, its the whole GEFS including the Para and seeing where it sits 

Totally agree, and we need to see where it fits on the 12z suite of models...BUT so far the 12z UKMO totally back its synoptically, its got decent support from the 00z ECM ensembles and obviously the 00z ECM.

That's actually quite a solid grouping supporting that evolution. The same exact thing happened to our last easterly attempt.

[Paul_1978]

22 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Dyer output - absolutely gutted.

Keep taking the tablets Feb. 

Edited January 23, 2019 by Norrance

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, Penicuikblizzard said:

Still at that magic 10day number

Yes they are 

[Banbury]

Last nights 850's were plenty good enough for a good covering in these parts and today's temps were good enough to keep the snow on the ground , the output will give us more opportunities for snow to fall and stay 

[frosty ground]

4 minutes ago, kold weather said:

Totally agree, and we need to see where it fits on the 12z suite of models...BUT so far the 12z UKMO totally back its synoptically, its got decent support from the 00z ECM ensembles and obviously the 00z ECM.

That's actually quite a solid grouping supporting that evolution. The same exact thing happened to our last easterly attempt.

UKMet model that only goes out to 144 totally backs the GFS at 222?

Identical charts at 144 you can't get a fag paper between them

No real difference to be seen MetO totally the same. 

Edited January 23, 2019 by frosty ground

[kold weather]

Well that wasn't the best GFS run I've ever seen, still got a few chances but we basically end up with a good, but short lived NW airflow and a really weak NE/ENE airflow and that is about it for the cold spell for most...

Not exactly what we are looking for is it?!

GFS 12z gets a 6/10 from me. Not a total disaster as some are saying, but its a pretty poor end given the potential that is out there.

 

[northwestsnow]

GFS UKMO re absolutely not the same at 144, UKMo far more appealing..

UKM

GFS

[Harsh Climate]

17 minutes ago, Updated_Weather said:

Atleast someone on here is on the same wave length than me - Think we need to implement a new rule. Don't look further than 5 days on models lol

So this is the 'hunt for cold model thread' yet you don't think people should look past 5 days  on the models? . 

Yes because trends and model agreements can't be found after five days can they?   

[Matty88]

We've been here before with this 12z - some on here will need hormonal control tablets if we take these too seriously!! Patience will pay off I think. Granted the scope is narrowing but still - the snow trigger is there and ready for next week from Sunday onwards, and I'm sure there is still scope for positive as well as negative adjustments - as always ! Looking Marginal as it stands.... 

[frosty ground]

Looking at the 06z Ensembles its not like any of the runs had this outcome is it?

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

This thread is bizarre at times, so winter is over is it?

if we take the 1st Feb as a date 

2018   quite similar to the current pattern / possible repeated pattern moving forward with the  ridge in the Atlantic and the low bringing in a northerly, was winter over then? no that was  3+ weeks before the beast from the east began to show its hand

1st February 2016   the winter of 2015 / 16, now that is a better example of a "zonal" chart with a harder / unlikely route to cold - Winter 2015/16 was third-warmest for the UK in a series from 1910, behind the winters of 1989 and 2007. For England and Wales, it was the warmest winter in the series. December 2015 (UK anomaly + 4.1 °C) was easily the warmest December for both the UK and the Central England Temperature (CET) series from 1659. Remarkably, December had the highest positive anomaly for any month in the CET series by a margin of well over 1 °C. In comparison temperatures in January (UK anomaly +0.9 °C) and February (+ 0.2 °C) were mostly unremarkable. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2016/winter are we in that kind of position this year? chart from the 12z GFS which is causing unnecessary panic  even if that chart ends up being realistic  I would say it is still better than the 2016 chart with better heights toward Russia and trying to build into the Arctic and also the PV slowly draining away from Canada / Greenland whereas the PV lobe was stronger toward Greenland back in 2016.

1st February 2015  perhaps some similarities with northerlies etc but a pretty strong PV compared to where we could end up this year - At the start of the month, the UK was under the influence of a cold northerly weather type - Snow and ice caused some limited disruption during the cold spell of weather from 1st to 6th  - After a spell of settled weather, from 20th onwards there were some impacts from ice and snow across northern areas,  https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2015/february

1st February 2014  again another example of "zonal" conditions - February was another stormy, very unsettled and wet month.- However, conditions were mild with any snow confined to the Scottish mountains. It was a mild month with the UK mean temperature 5.2 °C, which is 1.5 °C above the 1981-2010 long-term average, and the number of air frosts among the lowest in the last 50 years. The UK overall received 191% of average rainfall, making it the 3rd wettest February in the historical series. https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/climate/uk/summaries/2014/february I think we would be very unlucky to end up with anything as zonal / mild as that this year.

I think that is enough to highlight my point that we have been in much less favourable positions at this point of winter in the past and given the SSW and the downwelling only now beginning to have its say on conditions and the MJO possibly heading back toward a more favourable position I think writing winter off now is nothing short of crazy given how quickly things could yet develop for a colder outlook to take hold. 

[kold weather]

UKMO and GFS ARE similar in where they are putting the broad pieces. Of course there difference in surface pressure but *look* at the UIMO progress from 120-144hrs and notice over the states where that PV .lobe is going....its going SE into the Atlantic.

Take a look at the GFS 120-144hrs over the states (nOT the low pressure, follow the purple low thickness) where is it going, SE into the Atlantic.

That is the feature to watch as it is a direct lobe of the PV splitting off, and that is why I'm confident the UKMO follows the GFS+00z ECM at least until 240hrs because that track of the upper low into the Atlantic, quite clearly lots of energy about to head into the Atlantic based on that 144hrs UKMO, perhaps even more than the GFS.

 

Edited January 23, 2019 by kold weather

[P-M]

24 minutes ago, Radiating Dendrite said:

Decent covering? Nothing in Central or South.

Maybe not in your locale however someone did post from a northern London suburb and it showed a decent covering - point being snow fell in the London area / south east in modest amounts or in any case it wasn't limited to northern hills as keeps being spouted around.

Edited January 23, 2019 by P-M