Yorkshire and E England regional thread 30 Jan 2019 onwards

[Craigers]

If this chart happens I bet this forum will go mental!!! Please come true

[smhouston]

49 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Well continue to cool very marginally with potential for small near time disturbamces until new years eve with each attempt a little less marginal.

Well stay on the right side of the jet until betweem the 4th and 6th of January when the next rise of AAM will see us get close to charts shown on the 12z. Imitially heights will be near scandi from this time bringing in the risk of easterly winds and snow showerd depending on upper air temperatures (these do matter in a convective set up off the north sea due to above average sst's)

The high pressure will stay high over scandi while retrogressing and building first into iceland then into Greenland where there is am expected ssw which is imcreasingly looking likely as a split sometime on or just after the second week in january.

Heieghts then look to intensify further into Greenland and iceland as we get a big injection of very cold air into russia and scandinavia as the split looks to leave the biggest lobe im this location currently.

As easterly reversed winds kick in this when the exceptionally cold air arrives from the east in a long fetched easterly.

Looking at the strength of the ssw id expect this to take us into february ans beyond

I cant stress how severe January looks to potentially be and this forecast from the first week in december is now backed up by chio and catacol along with some exceptional professiomal forecasters who work for the metoffice and the US met.

Im extremeley confident about thie scenario.

I havnt swayed once and have called each week correct since the start of December

Its all panning out perfectly

Cheers for replying and forecasting. When you say how severe, I assume you're talking from a temperature point of view? I assume then that means any significant snowfall we are probably looking at the Greenland high producing us via nothernlies from the Arctic rather than anything from the initial leading up to / setting up of the Greenland high? I've always been skeptical of SSW events because they never seem to do what people think. However, the ensembles are looking extremely consistent across the board, like ridiculously so and at a long period too, something I've not seen since I joined here 16 years ago. There just feels like there is something different this time although I'm not yet on the severe cold spell ramping team 

 

Also, I saw your comment about Thames freezing over (which may or may not have been tongue in cheek) but wouldn't the generally higher sea temperatures put a stop to that anyway?

[smhouston]

9 minutes ago, Craigers said:

If this chart happens I bet this forum will go mental!!! Please come true

My lack of knowledge, but albeit cold, wouldn't that just provide dry conditions for us with the low being so far south and us just being affected by the high? Maybe just a few rogue showers

I know you can't predict any sort of precipitation until < 24 hours

 

 

 

[Scott Ingham]

I would suggest snowfall from the 5th to the 15th is a distinct possibility it will be a lot less marginal than now and really severe cold from the 15th to the middle of February from the ssw.

It freezed over in 1963 and it we stay below average to the ssw then there is this possibility although very low (it was slightly tongue in cheek!l

[Jeremy Shockey]

 

Arome 18z still interested in snow tomorrow night for parts of our region 

Edited December 27, 2020 by Jeremy Shockey

[Scott Ingham]

46 minutes ago, Jeremy Shockey said:

 

Arome 18z still interested in snow tomorrow night for parts of our region 

This is a very encouraging run! 

[Allseasons-Si]

This band is still marching east off the Irish sea lol.

[Winter Cold]

Colder than forecast right now too.

Meto for my area says we should be at 2c now, but my weather station is showing sub zero!

Really hope we see something tomorrow night. Looking forward to the main course in January though

[Scott Ingham]

2 hours ago, Allseasons-si said:

This band is still marching east off the Irish sea lol.

Is it just me or is it much further north and East! Almost looks like its pivoting closer to us!

[Allseasons-Si]

2 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Is it just me or is it much further north and East! Almost looks like its pivoting closer to us!

Yeah,i am wondering when it will start moving south?

[Scott Ingham]

Yeah!

When i think about it why have the met not removed us from the warning area.

Have we ignorantly been trusting the free to use models and their own UKEP and MOGREPS models is pushing it further east??

[Allseasons-Si]

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Yeah!

When i think about it why have the met not removed us from the warning area.

Have we ignorantly been trusting the free to use models and their own UKEP and MOGREPS models is pushing it further east??

It's starting to pivot on the N flank of the PPN now so it might just miss us,sadly.

[Scott Ingham]

Its going to be close. Ive just checked various models on metcheck and were about 2 hours faster with the eastwood movement which in theory shoud mean it shouldnt drop south until 5am

I think we should wait and see the low to me is 150miles further north East

Edited December 28, 2020 by Scott Ingham

[BlazeStorm]

Keep the dream alive

Check the 3hr

https://www.meteoradar.co.uk/

[Scott Ingham]

Told you look.

Reaches us in two hours......

[Allseasons-Si]

5 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Its going to be close. Ive just checked various models on metcheck and were about 2 hours faster with the eastwood movement which in theory shoud mean it shouldnt drop south until 5am

I think we should wait and see the low to me is 150miles further north East

Knife edge stuff this.

[Scott Ingham]

Just now, Allseasons-si said:

Knife edge stuff this.

Check my pic above now forecast to reach at 5:50 its moved in 2 hours quicker

[Allseasons-Si]

Right,i am off,cannot keep my eyes open any longer lol

3 minutes ago, Scott Ingham said:

Check my pic above now forecast to reach at 5:50 its moved in 2 hours quicker

yes,saw that and i hope it comes off,but it is a forecast trajectory-not guaranteed.

[Scott Ingham]

26 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Right,i am off,cannot keep my eyes open any longer lol

yes,saw that and i hope it comes off,but it is a forecast trajectory-not guaranteed.

Well were now at the pennines so not far to go and its hardly pivoted maybe 30 degrees if that 

[LeeSnowFan]

Good Morning

So where are we at this morning?

[swfc]

Looks like a miss for us in South Yorkshire

[LeeSnowFan]

1c Currently  very frosty out

[boyzie]

Iis it predicted to pivot North? If not it has completely missed me in West Yorkshire.

[Love Snow]

We have plenty of chances coming up in West Yorkshire this week so all isn’t lost.

[Craigers]

Metoffice seem to think it might move more this way????!