Yorkshire and E England regional thread 30 Jan 2019 onwards

[Craigers]

13 minutes ago, LeeSnowFan said:

haha no way that's where his sister and family live!!!!!

We only moved here last Friday from Doncaster

[Cheese Rice]

I'm stuck in tier 4 london for now so haven't been able to go to Leeds over the new year. 

Looking at all the charts the met office warning of lying snow above 250m for pennine areas Inland sounds about right.  

Showers mostly of rain with maybe a bit of sleet mixed in the further inland you go. Any falling snow would be well Inland on high ground above 200/250m. I'd say lying snow above 300m maybe even higher than that. 

-4 850's just won't cut it in an easterly, unless we see a really slack flow with next to no moderation from the north sea, and even then it would be well Inland.

[SouthYorks]

I think the wide area under the Meto Yellow Warning for tonight represents the doubt over the track the precipitation will take.

Harmonie brings it into North Yorks then moves it initially West into Lancashire then SW direction with the heaviest precip missing South Yorkshire.  Arome is similar but shows heavier precip.  ECM has a similar track but shows mainly rain until it gets further West.

Arpege brings it into East Yorkshire then moves it in a SW direction through South Yorkshire towards the Peak District.

Icon entry point is similar to Arpege but has a more Southerly track so the precip is primarily to the East of the Pennines.  Precip shown as much lighter.

It will no doubt be a nowcast situation with Radar and Lampost watching! 

[Craigers]

Looks great from the ECM 12z. Comes at the coldest part of the morning.

[SouthYorks]

13 minutes ago, Craigers said:

Looks great from the ECM 12z. Comes at the coldest part of the morning.

That looks like a bullseye for us!  Let’s hope it’s on the money!

[reef]

The precipitation has started here and its just rain. Its 1.9C with a dewpoint of 0.3C at the surface, but the air above is too mild.

[Just Before Dawn]

Just rain here too, far too marginal this low this close to the sea.

 

[joggs]

-0.8 here in Bingley but being this low down I think rain and sleet for me. Anyway medium to longterm is looking promising re cold weather. I'm sure things will crop up in the flows at times.

[reef]

1 minute ago, Just Before Dawn said:

Just rain here too, far too marginal this low this close to the sea.

 

The wind isn't even onshore either, its from the north-west at the moment, so this isn't the result of being near the sea, but rather just being too mild in general.

[joggs]

Anyone else got frost already on cars and grass?.

[Cheese Rice]

The warning from the met office is a hodge podge warning covering any precipitation that has fallen earlier today all the way into tomorrow with the main risk being ice.  It's not just related to the feature coming in which will largerly be of rain/sleet unfortunately. 

The localised met office forecast for low ground Leeds is 2/3.c with a mix of rain or snow. 

High ground Leeds at 210m (airport) is showing rain to begin with then snow at 1.c, so maybe something lying but I'd be surprised. 

I'm thinking close but no cigar.

 

[Empire Of Snow]

22 minutes ago, joggs said:

Anyone else got frost already on cars and grass?.

Yes hard frost on grass and cars from around 6pm here at Pannal Ash outside Harrogate. I'll be hugely surprised and disappointed if any kind of ppn falls as rain or sleet later. Clear skies already helped the temp to fall well below zero. 

[The PIT]

35 minutes ago, joggs said:

Anyone else got frost already on cars and grass?.

Nope just wet no frost at all today.

[Maltonman]

35 minutes ago, joggs said:

Anyone else got frost already on cars and 

Hardly lifted all day here,everything frosted over again now. 

[Jeremy Shockey]

hard frost since 4,30 pm here , now -1.3 c , showers approaching within 30 mins ( i will let you know what they are )

[Harsh Climate]

15 minutes ago, Empire Of Snow said:

Yes hard frost on grass and cars from around 6pm here at Pannal Ash outside Harrogate. I'll be hugely surprised and disappointed if any kind of ppn falls as rain or sleet later. Clear skies already helped the temp to fall well below zero. 

Problem is when showers arrive, the temperature rises a little probably due to the cloud cover acting as a blanket.. And not only that pockets of milder air mixed in with the showers off the North Sea can also spike the temperature, as someone in Scotland thread just reported rain at a temperature of 0c with dew point of -1c! .  Forecasting snow is notoriously difficult but all that said I think there will be a pleasant surprise for some come 6am tomorrow morning.  I think the biggest chance will come between 3-6am as the showers have banded together creating a more persistent band of precipitation/ or streamers thus negating the factors I've just mentioned bringing the temperature back down low enough for settling snow. In otley 100m I'm expecting at very least a light wet covering.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Harsh Climate

[Cold Winter]

6 minutes ago, Maltonman said:

Hardly lifted all day here,everything frosted over again now. 

Yep, -1c here now and frost never lifted. Surprised it’s stayed so low! 

[Maltonman]

1 minute ago, Cold Winter said:

Yep, -1c here now and frost never lifted. Surprised it’s stayed so low! 

And was cloudy when went outside not long ago. Hard to believe we are more than likely to wake up to a wet mess this low down. 

[Cold Winter]

3 minutes ago, Maltonman said:

And was cloudy when went outside not long ago. Hard to believe we are more than likely to wake up to a wet mess this low down. 

I know, I think this may turn out to be one of the most frustrating ‘cold spells‘ for our (very specific) area if you’re talking about snow potential. How often do we see snow modelled for the moors, wolds and W Yorks but a blob of rain over Malton?!?  Seems to happen more and more often.

Might look better later next week but that’s a long way off. Until then we just have to make do with all the pretty pictures from elsewhere!

[snowrye]

Hello all, just popped in from the south east thread, I see some of you are as snow starved as me lol, hoping we all get dumped on soon

[Harsh Climate]

Ecm precipitation chart for 5th January. Even with just modest uppers of -4/-5 still produces plenty of showers, interesting times indeed..

And with the air travelling a relatively short distance over sea I would fancy that to br mostly snow! Obviously deep in FI but nice to sea the convective potential even without brutal uppers.

Edited December 28, 2020 by Harsh Climate

[NorthYorksWeather]

Grand ord day climbing up Pen y Ghent. Didn’t get above freezing all day above 400m. More snow to come for inland elevated areas tonight and this snow is going nowhere fast. No sign of any snow for back home at low elevation for now so trip to hills will have to continue. 

[Allseasons-Si]

Nice pics @vizzy2004

Meanwhile,...latest Icon 18z...

[smhouston]

Does look like Sheffield (north) will *just* miss out on tonight's action. Very very close

[Craigers]

4 minutes ago, Allseasons-si said:

Nice pics @vizzy2004

Meanwhile,...latest Icon 18z...

Youd expect the feature to be more intense in Yorkshire not Bristol