Model output discussion - late November

[feb1991blizzard]

1 minute ago, northwestsnow said:

Yes, GFS looks very seasonal as we head into Friday next week...and stays cold until monday with frosts widely by sat night.

UKMO looks very different at 144 though so yet again, no confidence on the way forward.

 

I think we will go zonal at some point afterwards as the majority clustering on most guidance suggests.

[feb1991blizzard]

Although having said that the GFS of all the models now going in completely the opposite direction on this run.

WAA having another Go up Western Greenland again.

Edited November 24, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

10 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Although having said that the GFS of all the models now going in completely the opposite direction on this run.

WAA having another Go up Western Greenland again.

Enough troughing into Europe to prevent a fat euro slug, on this run.

Edited November 24, 2019 by northwestsnow

[feb1991blizzard]

6 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

Enough troughing into Europe to prevent a fat euro slug, on this run.

To be fair even where we do go zonal on the extended modelling, there has been a certain amount of a shift recently towards the more colder type with troughing digging quite far south.

 

Last GFS.

 

And this one.

Just 2 examples.

Edited November 24, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[northwestsnow]

18 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

To be fair even where we do go zonal on the extended modelling, there has been a certain amount of a shift recently towards the more colder type with troughing digging quite far south.

 

Last GFS.

 

And this one.

Just 2 examples.

+AO and +NAO though..

Forces of darkness are gathering..

[SMU]

So this is how close the operational is at getting the -10c line in

Annoying UKMO not quite the same but we are converging on a wedge now - just need  to squeeze a bit more- ICON pretty good as well.

 

 

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and the 0400 UK chart

As can be seen still plenty of rain around in Scotland which should clear this morning and further south very murky with a lot of cloud an mist around. This will be slow to clear but by afternoon perhaps a few sunny intervals. But the fronts associated with the low to the west will bring rain into the south west by late afternoon

.

The rain will move north east through the night with some heavy pulses along the occlusion, with showers in it's wake

The weakening front will continue to track north east through Monday but a following front will pep up the showers in the south west which could have thunder in the mix.And as can be seen the pattern that by now we should all be familiar with is evolving.

Over Monday night and through Tuesday rapid cylogenisis takes place near the left exit of the jet in the south west quadrant of the upper trough and by midday Tuesday there is a surface low 965mb south west of Ireland and rain from the associated occlusion will spread north east through the day and evening accompanied by strong winds

The low will track north east and fill slowly to be 974mb over Waled by midday Wednesday so very wet and windy day is on the cards

The pattern continues to evolve on Thursday with cyclonic activity in the Atlantic forcing the jet south but note the two energy flows and colder air is starting to creep into the north of the country. The low is now in the North sea and there will be some persistent rain in the north and east associated with the fronts bur generally still dry and quite mild further south

[SMU]

The 00z Mean @150 is a significant step forward to cold again - im going with X2 -10c runs now into the SE

[knocker]

Between t144-168 events occur upstream that were alluded to last evening with the upper low dropping into the western Atlantic triggering downstream amplification of the subtropical high

Not much point in looking at detail past here but suffice it to say it has been trending colder

[Ali1977]

Nothing zonal about FI, and a cracking Op for late next week  

A cherry picked day 12 chart.

Edited November 24, 2019 by Ali1977

[northwestsnow]

42 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

So this is how close the operational is at getting the -10c line in

Annoying UKMO not quite the same but we are converging on a wedge now - just need  to squeeze a bit more- ICON pretty good as well.

 

 

Yes, i was hoping for some cross model consensus this morning but alas, its not there.

Can't make my mind up about UKMO steve, just don't know what to make of it.

[knocker]

In the last twelve hours the GEFS has played down the Alaskan ridge and thus a tad less amplified over North America. Otherwise much the same with a strong upper flow across the Atlantic but with the subtropical high in the east still exerting some influence

Edited November 24, 2019 by knocker

[feb1991blizzard]

8 minutes ago, northwestsnow said:

 

Can't make my mind up about UKMO steve, just don't know what to make of it.

 

52 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

 

Annoying UKMO not quite the same but we are converging on a wedge now - just need  to squeeze a bit more- ICON pretty good as well.

 

 

Not terrible though, looks to me like the trough just to the West of us wouldn't scupper us and another bout off WAA up Greenland and another more decisive trough would drop shortly after.

Edited November 24, 2019 by feb1991blizzard

[Ali1977]

Impressive WAA up West of Greenland, it’ll be a surprise if that can’t hold on aiding a better FI from the north

 

Could this be a Sat night snow event for the midlands with that low, northern side of it on higher ground anyway????

Edited November 24, 2019 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

******** UPGRADE ALERT - The WAA does hold, cracking ECM at 192

 

216 could be proper cold looking at what’s lined up 

Edited November 24, 2019 by Ali1977

[Ali1977]

216 is proper cold in the north 

[Mr Frost]

Good Morning all

You love to see it!!!! (If you are a cold/snow fan )

The cold upper 850’s begin to sink South on the 28th...and last until the end of the run. (Milder air encroaching Northern Ireland/Ireland/SW England on the last frame)

Really cold up North and for many other areas as the days pass - can someone kindly post the ground temperatures for this run? (If they have access or if it is indeed allowed?) Edit: Thanks Knocker - that’s what I thought. 

 

If this run becomes reality I would be happy to take a bout of mild/zonal weather afterwards. 

Edited November 24, 2019 by Mr Frost

[knocker]

I don't know of any site that gives forecast ground temps which of course doesn't mean there aren't any

[Ali1977]

13 minutes ago, Mr Frost said:

Good Morning all

You love to see it!!!! (If you are a cold/snow fan )

The cold upper 850’s begin to sink South on the 28th...and last until the end of the run.

Really cold up North and for many other areas as the days pass - can someone kindly post the ground temperatures for this run? (If they have access or if it is indeed allowed?)

 

If this run becomes reality I would be happy to take a bout of mild/zonal weather afterwards. 

I imagine when the uppers are at around -8c, temps on the ground away from direct coast line will be around 0-2c , not an exact science but not far off. A little altitude and they’ll drop off around 1c per 100-150m

Edited November 24, 2019 by Ali1977

[knocker]

The ecm for next weekend

[carinthian]

Good morning all. That chart from ECM at 240t if verifies is a massive up-grade regarding cold prospects for you lot in the UK. Solid depth of cold air established close to the British Isles and locked in to the NE of Europe by a resurgence of heights further East. Could be a classic battle in the SW as the Atlantic fronts come up against the cold established over much of the British Isles. Will get a update later this morning with thoughts from our team regarding this particular run and how it compares with theirs with specifics to UK snow prospects next weekend and beyond.

C

[SMU]

ECM 240

@Tim Bland

 

[northwestsnow]

Excellent EC det this morning.

I would hazard this is about best case scenario but it is nice to see a det bringing genuine cold to our shores and offers some support for the recent upgrades in meto outlook (I note BBC have now added the colder scenario to early Dec)

Perhaps a seasonal beginning to the festive season is on..Day 9 uppers are lovely jubbly

Too far out to take too seriously but those of us of a cold persuasion will raise a smile at that chart..

[ItNeverSnowsInWindsor]

Please Ecm be right! Could be a lot of snowfall from the battle between the Atlantic and the cold block.

[northwestsnow]

1 minute ago, prolongedSnowLover said:

Please Ecm be right! Could be a lot of snowfall from the battle between the Atlantic and the cold block.

Looks a very cold run with plenty of frost on offer ..

Looks like a bit of snow dotted around too esp Wales and NW Scotland from what i can see.