Model output discussion - late November

[Paul]

Winter is just around the corner now, so this thread is getting busy. Please keep it to the models in here though, there are numerous other topics for discussing other aspects of the weather. Please also keep it friendly and bear in mind that not everyone has to be hunting for cold in here, so if someone posts about something other than cold weather, it doesn't automatically make them a troll!

As ever, please hit the report button if there's a post you think may cause an issue due to being off topic, out of line or against the forum guidelines in any way.

If you're not wanting to discuss the models, here are some alternative threads:

Autumn: Moans, Ramps and Banter
Winter speculation and chat
Record breaking wet Autumn?
Join the CET guessing competition for 2019/2020
Stratosphere and polar vortex watch

Interested in teleconnections and their impacts?
Head to the teleconnections discussion

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Model Output And Charts On Netweather:
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GFS
GEFS Ensembles
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ECMWF EPS
NetWx-SR (3km)
NetWx-MR (9km)
Met Office (UKMO)
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Model Comparison
Golbal Jetstream
Stratosphere

[knocker]

A quick glance at the Arctic front mentioned earlier with the ecm

[southbank]

Certainly the 0z Suite of charts may be indicating a HLB around Greenland in 19 days time , certainly bottling up some great potential there that may lead to Somme great ( if eye candy only ) Boom charts , but as ever more runs needed and watch for a SW spoiler 

[Mizzle]

New thread just in time as the GFS 06z rolls out. Will it continue with interesting eye-candy charts for the cold hunters?

[shaky]

My fears confirmed from yesterday on the gfs 06z!!the low in the atlantic dont slide enough and neither does it deepen enough to send a ridge through the atlantic so we cold feed is cut off quicker and flatten things out!!lets see if we get another bite of the cherry as always lol

[Ali1977]

Well the chart at 144 is a little bit of a let down, let’s see if the secondary  WAA happens 

 

Nope - I’m hoping this run is an outlier and the ENS support the ECM type scenario. Oh the roller coaster that is Winter in thIs forum!! 

Edited November 22, 2019 by Ali1977

[swfc-ocs]

6z GFS at the the 130 HR mark sips in a low pressure heading west?hopefully it's not a spoiler

[IDO]

1 minute ago, shaky said:

My fears confirmed from yesterday on the gfs 06z!!the low in the atlantic dont slide enough and neither does it deepen enough to send a ridge through the atlantic so we cold feed is cut off quicker and flatten things out!!lets see if we get another bite of the cherry as always lol

Yes, the timings of these spawned lows from the NW can have subtle changes and that effects the placement and timings of the mini-ridges that will send warmth to the Griceland wedge. First attempt compared to the 0z fails to pump up the wedge from the Atlantic:

0z  06z 

Delaying the pattern at the least...

[shaky]

4 minutes ago, IDO said:

Yes, the timings of these spawned lows from the NW can have subtle changes and that effects the placement and timings of the mini-ridges that will send warmth to the Griceland wedge. First attempt compared to the 0z fails to pump up the wedge from the Atlantic:

0z  06z 

Delaying the pattern at the least...

Yup i think me and you both know how this is most probably going to end!!!standard stuff these days!!!anyway over to the 12zs!!!

[Jordan S]

21 minutes ago, Mizzle said:

New thread just in time as the GFS 06z rolls out. Will it continue with interesting eye-candy charts for the cold hunters?

With a touch of my regular animation it really did look like eye candy..  Or mabye just candyfloss..it's not often i'll post charts at around the 300hr range so treasure them.

Will give my detailed update in a bit. 

Edited November 22, 2019 by jordan smith

[IDO]

3 minutes ago, shaky said:

Yup i think me and you both know how this is most probably going to end!!!standard stuff these days!!!anyway over to the 12zs!!!

...yes, variation on the theme, just the wrong variation in the medium term. See where FI goes with this plot.

[mountain shadow]

14 minutes ago, swfc said:

6z GFS at the the 130 HR mark sips in a low pressure heading west?hopefully it's not a spoiler

The only consolation is that the 6z GFS is the worst performing GFS run of the day and the GFS is the 3rd/4th best model.

I'll wait for the GEFS before getting to bothered.

[shaky]

3 minutes ago, IDO said:

...yes, variation on the theme, just the wrong variation in the medium term. See where FI goes with this plot.

Already flatter at 204 hours!its as if the models have got this real big issue of amplifying things in the medium to long run but come reality its nothing like!!!dunno what it is happens every year!!!

[SLEETY]

strange looking run this.Bet anything it’s miles out from actual reality.Looks junk to me.

Wiill save this run and see how far it actually was from reality.

[SMU]

Remember the age old commentary for the 06z if it goes off on a tangent V the Euros its generally fit for the bin.

Today is no exception, I think ive made the same post regarding this run for the past 7-8 years. 06z & less so 18z are generally bin fodder unless they stay close to the general theme.

I dont get why every year we go through the same emotional rollercoaster until the first Euro comes out.......

FOLLOW THE UKMO- I would bet my house that for NW europe it is the most accurate of the big 3 at 120 & 144

Edited November 22, 2019 by Steve Murr

[coldwinter]

The issue is at days 4/5/6, the low coming through the states is fast and the low in the atlantic stays in situ, meaning they phase, and when they phase its game over for the Greenland high that time. ECM and the 00z kept them separate 

 

[Weathizard]

Awaiting the 6z is unreliable cannon fodder posts unfortunately what this shows is very plausible we’ve seen this many times over the years with lows phasing together over the Atlantic. Not saying it will happen but I’d lean more towards that than a massive Greeny ridge.

[SLEETY]

so you would choose the gfs over both european models at that time-scale.

we will see later who was nearer the mark. I know where my money would go.

 

Edited November 22, 2019 by SLEETY

[IDO]

The vagaries of getting UK cold, I wonder which one will verify?

0z: 

06z: 

You couldn't make it up!

[frosty ground]

5 minutes ago, Steve Murr said:

Remember the age old commentary for the 06z if it goes off on a tangent V the Euros its generally fit for the bin.

Today is no exception, I think ive made the same post regarding this run for the past 7-8 years. 06z & less so 18z are generally bin fodder unless they stay close to the general theme.

I dont get why every year we go through the same emotional rollercoaster until the first Euro comes out.......

FOLLOW THE UKMO- I would bet my house that for NW europe it is the most accurate of the big 3 at 120 & 144

Just for clarity your placing the 06Z OP run in the bin that would sit comfortably within the range of options of all publicly available Ensemble output from all publicly available model?

 

[SLEETY]

Either ukmo or ecm always more likely to verify than any gfs run.Always been like that!

[Jordan S]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

The vagaries of getting UK cold, I wonder which one will verify?

0z: 

06z: 

You couldn't make it up!

Possibly somewhere in the middle. 

[frosty ground]

1 minute ago, IDO said:

The vagaries of getting UK cold, I wonder which one will verify?

0z: 

06z: 

You couldn't make it up!

You could easily make it up because both runs at that time frame sit within the envelope of outcomes.

[blizzard81]

We need to keep grounded for a while yet. This maybe a little sobering but compare the 00z gfs mean at day 10 with the 06z op for the same time. 

[SMU]

2 minutes ago, frosty ground said:

Just for clarity your placing the 06Z OP run in the bin that would sit comfortably within the range of options of all publicly available Ensemble output from all publicly available model?

 

Yep. Its a shower of s*it post 144.

Its been proving it since 2009.

Feb 1 2009 Actual V Jan 25 06z run to 162.

Could post up the same old trash runs from every year but cant be bothered.

But why dont you take a picture of todays 168 & 192 GFS & compare it 7 days down the line....