Models, teleconnections and nowcasting

[knocker]

Ground frost in some areas this morning

http://www.met.reading.ac.uk/~brugge/06.html

[knocker]

The ext anomalies this morning moving towards the position illustrated above from the EC weeklies update, albeit the GEFS retaining risge/trough amplification north of the UK/Europe

[knocker]

The midday sat image

[Kirkcaldy Weather]

 

[knocker]

The ecm has Invest 90 phasing with the Atlantic tough at t132 which promotes WAA into the UK by the end of next week

[knocker]

The GEFS ans EPS start diverging post t120 and by t140 this is the position

And around this time the TS enters the fray and whether to phase or not so that by day ten this is the position of the medium term anomalies

Clearly this will not do and until this is sorted a watching brief regarding detail in this period is the percentage play

NOAA

Edited May 15, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

The North Atlantic 500mb and surface analysis for midnight and sat image

After a frosty start in some places today should be mostly fine and sunny over England and Wales but cloudier in the north with some rain over northern Scotland, courtesy of the close proximity of the front

Clear again tonight over the south with maybe a touch of frost in places but the frontal system, including a warm upper front. will bring cloud rain/drizzle to the north

Another sunny and quite warm day over much of England and Wales on Sunday, but cloudier with patchy rain/drizzle in the north and much cooler

Again generally sunny on Monday and getting warmer in the south, and some eastern northern regions, but the waving cold front will bring cloud and patchy rain to N. Ireland, Scotland and northern England

By Tuesday a stationary trough dominates the Atlantic as the subtropical high zones start to amplify so any fronts merely just impact the far NW whilst temps rise over much of the country. Perhaps the odd shower in eastern regions of England

And thus on to a sunny and warm day on Wednesday

 

Edited May 16, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

The next few days are tricky and I'm not inclined to venture too far with any detail.

By t132 developments are concurring under the umbrella of the upper trough dominating the Atlantic and a surface low has tracked east into Ireland

Over Friday and saturday the trough is 'topped' up from Canada and it realigns as it battles against the amplifying ridge

Could be quite wet and windy for some regions

[knocker]

And the ecm

And it's on the same page as the  gfs on Friday

Edited May 16, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

Some differences with the ext anomalies this morning with the EPS favoring retention of amplification of the subtropical high. This much in line with yesterdays weeklies update but probably a good time to point out that it very quickly became quite similar to the GEFS take on things at the very beginning of June. Either way, with the Atlantic and Europe trending positively anomalous nothing drastic is indicated with temps above average with the NW again attracting most of the precipitation

 

 

Edited May 16, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

Quite a lot of cloud around at the moment which ties in with current conditions here of sunny but with extensive Ci and high Ac

[knocker]

Current sat image illustrates the low west of Norway quite well

[knocker]

The medium and high cloud mentioned above illustrated well on the Camborne sounding Still some quite interesting Ac here Lerwick behind the cold front but close to the occlusion

Edited May 16, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

The gfs has developments within the Atlantic trough by 00 Thursday which continue over the next 24 hours bringing some wet and windy weather NW/W regions

Edited May 16, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

In the medium term the gfs is indicating suppression of the subtropical high by the eastbound energy before a mid Atlantic resurgence by the end. Thus continuing unsettled. Not forgetting of course that the detail in this period ia long way from a slam dunk

[knocker]

Leaving aside the overview the ecm for Thursday/Friday

 

[knocker]

According to the ecm In the medium term the east bound/trough remains the main influence but this tending to a N/S split across the UK. Not particularly interested in any further mid Atlantic amplification but bringing the subtropical high more into play nearer the UK late on

Edited May 16, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

The ext anomalies in pretty good agreement this evening.

Ridge NW North America adjacent to a weak tpv with cenre northern Canada and ext slack trough south east to Iceland. South of this a relatively benign westerly upper flow across a trending positively anomalous Atlantic, So nothing nasty lurking in the woodshed portending a faitly dry and quite pleasant period with temps around average

[knocker]

An overview of the next five days with the ecm and fax

Edited May 17, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

Over the next couple of days the ecm has a trough breaking away from the main trough in the Atlantic which brings some wet and windy weather to the country, particularly in the north where there could well be gales in exposed areas

 

Edited May 17, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

A fair bit of cloud around this morning

[mushymanrob]

16 hours ago, knocker said:

The medium and high cloud mentioned above illustrated well on the Camborne sounding Still some quite interesting Ac here Lerwick behind the cold front but close to the occlusion

Ok, im still getting to grips with these charts...... how does the Ci and Ac , manifest on these charts?

[knocker]

27 minutes ago, mushymanrob said:

Ok, im still getting to grips with these charts...... how does the Ci and Ac , manifest on these charts?

Looking at the Camborne ascent the right hand line represents the temperature and the left the dew point. As can be seen the is a big difference between 900mb to 700mb which indicates a dry (relatively) layer

Above that the dew point rises (gets closer to the temp) indicating the air is becoming very moist again. At certain spots, 660, 590 and 380mb it is the same as the temp which indicates 100% humidity and a likely cloud layer. The heights for these levels can be roughly ascertained on the left of the diagram. In this case Ci and medium level cloud

Hope this helps mushy

Edited May 17, 2020 by knocker

[knocker]

Skipping the waffle the ext anomalies are pretty much as expected, perhaps the trough yo the NW takng closer order

[mushymanrob]

48 minutes ago, knocker said:

Looking at the Camborne ascent the right hand line represents the temperature and the left the dew point. As can be seen the is a big difference between 900mb to 700mb which indicates a dry (relatively) layer

Above that the dew point rises (gets closer to the temp) indicating the air is becoming very moist again. At certain spots, 660, 590 and 380mb it is the same as the temp which indicates 100% humidity and a likely cloud layer. The heights for these levels can be roughly ascertained on the left of the diagram. In this case Ci and medium level cloud

Hope this helps mushy

Yep, thanks a lot for that, appreciated.. i thought that was the case... just a bit unsure.