January 2020 C.E.T. and EWP forecast contests

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 25th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

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Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[Roger J Smith]

Current projection for EWP (at 65 mm) is around 80 to 85 mm again. 

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 26th

2.8c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield at 6.5C +2.1C above normal. Rainfall up to 52.4mm 64.7% of the monthly average.

A small drop for today and tomorrow then back up again Thursday look to be mild to very mild overnight.

So Sunny Sheffield should make a new record for itself.

[Snowyowl9]

On 26/01/2020 at 08:25, North-Easterly Blast said:

 makes anyone question whether it is any longer realistically possible for a notable cold spell or prolonged spell of wintry weather to develop again in the UK, and if winters like 2012-13, 2009-10 or spells like Dec 2010 will ever be seen again.

People said that in 1989 and then we had february 1991,people then said that in 1998 then we had incredble synoptic easterly charts in late february 2005 and 2006 then people said that in 2007 then we had february 2009 then the unthinkable happened 2010-11 and then 2012 no not the mayan end of the world another topic,then we had the unthinkable happened again March 2013,then people still said we even had very decent cold zonality 2015 january,then finally end of february 2018 we had the Ark of the Covenant.

[virtualsphere]

11 minutes ago, Snowyowl9 said:

People said that in 1989 and then we had february 1991,people then said that in 1998 then we had incredble synoptic easterly charts in late february 2005 and 2006 then people said that in 2007 then we had february 2009 then the unthinkable happened 2010-11 and then 2012 no not the mayan end of the world another topic,then we had the unthinkable happened again March 2013,then people still said we even had very decent cold zonality 2015 january,then finally end of february 2018 we had the Ark of the Covenant.

Yes, worth remembering we went from Feb 1997 to Jan 2010 without a CET below 3C and since then we've had 3 in 2010 alone, plus March 2013 and Feb 2018.  Some of the last few years have been poor for colder weather but we're not quite at that point yet.  Interestingly, before the colder period between 2009/10 and 2013, the milder winters seemed a lot more anticyclonic than the recent period of milder winters which has seemed a lot wetter / cyclonic: 2007/08 and 2017/18 being the exceptions to both of these.

[Weather-history]

10 hours ago, Snowyowl9 said:

People said that in 1989 and then we had february 1991

Did they? It was only 2 years after the January 1987 easterly and 3 years after the sub zero February of 1986. I think the talk would have been more on that we can still get very mild winters with little snow if anything.

Edited January 28, 2020 by Weather-history

[Snowyowl9]

13 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Did they? It was only 2 years after the January 1987 easterly and 3 years after the sub zero February of 1986. I think the talk would have been more on that we can still get very mild winters with little snow if anything.

It felt alot longer back then somehow those end of 80`s time went so much slower then.

Edited January 28, 2020 by Snowyowl9

[North-Easterly Blast]

49 minutes ago, Weather-history said:

Did they? It was only 2 years after the January 1987 easterly and 3 years after the sub zero February of 1986. I think the talk would have been more on that we can still get very mild winters with little snow if anything.

I think that given how awful the winters of 1987-88 to 1989-90 were (the later two exceptionally mild) it at the time would have been as though a switch had been pulled after the cold 1977-87 ten year cluster.  I think that the pathetic end to the 1980s winters to this day stands out as when UK winters saw a major upward trend as ever since then, most winters in the last 30 odd years have been milder than the long term average prior to that time, with only Feb 1991, winter 1995-96, winter 2009-10, Dec 2010, winter 2012-13 being spells that could be described as notable exceptions to the generally mild winters since the late 1980s.

[Summer Sun]

6.5c to the 27th

2.7c above the 61 to 90 average
2.1c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[reef]

3 hours ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I think that given how awful the winters of 1987-88 to 1989-90 were (the later two exceptionally mild) it at the time would have been as though a switch had been pulled after the cold 1977-87 ten year cluster.  I think that the pathetic end to the 1980s winters to this day stands out as when UK winters saw a major upward trend as ever since then, most winters in the last 30 odd years have been milder than the long term average prior to that time, with only Feb 1991, winter 1995-96, winter 2009-10, Dec 2010, winter 2012-13 being spells that could be described as notable exceptions to the generally mild winters since the late 1980s.

For us locally the current run of crap winters for snow is unprecedented. Only three measurable falls of snow and nothing more than 1cm since January 2013.

Even during the 1987-1990 period we occasionally managed better.

[summer blizzard]

2 hours ago, reef said:

For us locally the current run of crap winters for snow is unprecedented. Only three measurable falls of snow and nothing more than 1cm since January 2013.

Even during the 1987-1990 period we occasionally managed better.

Dec 14, March 16, Feb and March 18?

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 6.4C +2.1C above average. Rainfall at 53.1mm 65.6% of the monthly average.

Looks like we finish on 6.5C a new record for us then.

 

[North-Easterly Blast]

I think that the running CET to the 27th (6.48) will not move much in the last four days of the month, with a cooler day today and possibly tomorrow (29th) then very mild on the 30th and 31st, so I would say that we are now likely to finish on 6.48 - 6.5 before adjustments, so there is no way we are going to reach the 2007 level of 7.0, and the month will likely come in just below 2008 (6.6).  This month will still be a notably mild January in terms of the CET.

[Don]

48 minutes ago, North-Easterly Blast said:

I think that the running CET to the 27th (6.48) will not move much in the last four days of the month, with a cooler day today and possibly tomorrow (29th) then very mild on the 30th and 31st, so I would say that we are now likely to finish on 6.48 - 6.5 before adjustments, so there is no way we are going to reach the 2007 level of 7.0, and the month will likely come in just below 2008 (6.6).  This month will still be a notably mild January in terms of the CET.

Final figure of around 6.3C?

[North-Easterly Blast]

Just now, Don said:

Final figure of around 6.3C?

Possibly after adjustments if we do get a downward adjustment this month.

[Roger J Smith]

The EWP seems to be heading for 80 mm or close to that, which is our consensus forecast (everyone take a bow).

With that value used for provisional scoring the closest forecasts for the month (other than consensus) would be

 1. mb018538 __ 80 mm

 2. Midlands Ice Age __ 80.3 mm

 3. Born From The Void _ 81 mm

 4. Bobd29 _______ 78 mm

 5. Robbie Garrett _ 82.5 mm

 6. Radiating Dendrite _ 83 mm

 7. Reef ___ 84 mm and SteveB __ 76 mm

 9. Twilight __ 85 mm (first entry)

10. Mr TOAD __ 85 mm (second entry)

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and the top ten in the annual standings after two months would be

 1. Radiating Dendrite 

 2. Reef

 3. Emmett Garland

 4. Pinball Wizard

 5. Kentspur

 6. Robbie Garrett

 7. Twilight

 8. mb018538

 9. Thundery Wintry Showers

10. Stationary Front

-----------------------------------------------

Will update on this scoring when a more precise value is known. 

[Summer Sun]

6.4c to the 28th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[The PIT]

Sunny Sheffield down to 6.3C +2.0C above normal. Rainfall up to 55.5mm 68.5% of the monthly average.

 

[qwertyK]

Temps in parts of france particuarly south and southwest much higher wehre they should be, could be as high as 20C in some places, but far from record breaking.

 

Temps in Western Russia seem to becoming something more seasonal

February outlook so far suggests still milder than average month but significantly less than January with more cold and frost.

Gav's weather vids predictions for summer suggesting cooler and wetter than average.

 

Edited January 29, 2020 by qwertyK

[Summer Sun]

6.4c to the 29th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

[Timmytour]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

6.4c to the 29th

2.6c above the 61 to 90 average
2.0c above the 81 to 10 average

__________________________________

Current high this month 7.5c to the 9th & 16th

Current low this month 5.8c to the 1st

It wouldn't surprise me to see either an upwards adjustment this month or no adjustment at all, as opposed to the usual downwards adjustment.

[mb018538]

First time I've done this CET/EWP thing and I've already cracked the top 10  

I'll let you in on a secret - just go mild, and win! Not been too difficult this winter really.

What i wanted to know though - why do so many people put their prediction in 7-10 days before the end of the month? Why not wait until the months end and give yourself the most data available to make a decent and semi-educated stab at things, rather than a more blind guess.

Same again for Feb - mild mild mild!

[Roger J Smith]

The earlier forecasts are probably a mixture of those wanting to go cold (easier to do when you can\t see much of the month on the current model run) or people resigned to a mild outcome no matter what so they would like first go at their value that they figure they will be choosing later anyway. 

Or the sheer excitement of seeing the thread?

 

[qwertyK]

GFS was forecasting SSW, gone now but could still reappear