Novel Coronavirus – China

[kold weather]

49 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

423 cases now in France and one more death.

This time next week they are going to be well north of 1000, as will likely Germany, we are probably 3-4 days behind them so suspect we will also breach 1000 some point in the next 10 days.

As for Italy, that really is starting to look grim. Europe in general seems to be being hit quite hard by new cases right now.

PS - world wide cases will likely break 100,000 tomorrow. 

Edited March 5, 2020 by kold weather

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Spikecollie]

The Paris marathon has been deferred until October. I know two people who were going to run in it in April - they'll just have to keep up the training.

[bobbarley]

2 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

That’s 3 diplomats/politicians who have now died from this in Iran, surely more than 107 have died in the general population!

[pip22]

DAILY SABAH

@DailySabah·41m

NATO confirms first three cases of novel coronavirus at its headquarters in Brussels

 

[kold weather]

Worryingly there is a mathematical model I have seen for Italy which has done a great job predicting the last few days outbreak numbers (it predicted 720 for today for example). Tomorrow it predicts 960 new cases...nearly a 1000 in a day for Italy.

[Spikecollie]

12 minutes ago, kold weather said:

This time next week they are going to be well north of 1000, as will likely Germany, we are probably 3-4 days behind them so suspect we will also breach 1000 some point in the next 10 days.

As for Italy, that really is starting to look grim. Europe in general seems to be being hit quite hard by new cases right now.

PS - world wide cases will likely break 100,000 tomorrow. 

Sadly, I agree with you and I think this is going to get a lot worse before it gets better. I'm going to have a chat with my boss on Monday to see what plans they have for our organisation and more importantly our working patterns. We have contractually guaranteed hours per month, so I am pretty sure we will be paid regardless - at least for a while - but at the first sign of spread to my area I'm simply not going out to work with vulnerable people putting them (or myself) at risk...

[Daniel*]

From ground zero northern Italy... sobering letter, 10% of confirmed cases in ICU is very concerning.

Milan, 4 March 2020
 
 
Dear friends,
 
At this moment in time, we believe it is important to share our first impressions and what we have learned in the first ten days of the COVID-19 outbreak.
 
We have seen a very high number of ICU admissions, almost entirely due to severe hypoxic respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation.
 
The surge can be important during an outbreak and cluster containment has to be in place to slow down virus transmission.
 
We are seeing a high percentage of positive cases being admitted to our Intensive Care Units, in the range of 10% of all positive patients.
 
We wish to convey a strong message: Get ready!
 
We also want to share with you some key points from our experience:
 

Get ready now - with your ICU’s networks - to define your contingency plan in the event of an outbreak in your community

Don’t work “in silo”. Coordinate with your hospital management and other healthcare professionals to prepare your response

Make sure your hospital management and procurement office have a protocol in place about which personal protection equipment (PPE) to stock and re-stock

Make sure your staff is trained in donning and doffing procedures

Use education, training and simulation as much as possible

Identify early hospitals that can manage the initial surge in a safe way

Increase your total ICU capacity

Get ready to prepare ICU areas where to cohort COVID-19 + patients - in every hospital if necessary

Put in place a triage protocol to identify suspected cases, test them and direct them to the right cohort

Make sure you set clear goals for care with the patients and their families early on

 
 
With our best regards
 
Prof. Maurizio Cecconi           Prof. Antonio Pesenti             Prof. Giacomo Grasselli
President elect, ESICM           University of Milan                University of Milan
Humanitas University, Milan
                                          

ESICM

MAILCHI.MP

 

[Spikecollie]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

From ground zero northern Italy... sobering letter, 10% of confirmed cases in ICU is very concerning.

Milan, 4 March 2020
 
 
Dear friends,
 
At this moment in time, we believe it is important to share our first impressions and what we have learned in the first ten days of the COVID-19 outbreak.
 
We have seen a very high number of ICU admissions, almost entirely due to severe hypoxic respiratory failure requiring mechanical ventilation.
 
The surge can be important during an outbreak and cluster containment has to be in place to slow down virus transmission.
 
We are seeing a high percentage of positive cases being admitted to our Intensive Care Units, in the range of 10% of all positive patients.
 
We wish to convey a strong message: Get ready!
 
We also want to share with you some key points from our experience:
 

Get ready now - with your ICU’s networks - to define your contingency plan in the event of an outbreak in your community

Don’t work “in silo”. Coordinate with your hospital management and other healthcare professionals to prepare your response

Make sure your hospital management and procurement office have a protocol in place about which personal protection equipment (PPE) to stock and re-stock

Make sure your staff is trained in donning and doffing procedures

Use education, training and simulation as much as possible

Identify early hospitals that can manage the initial surge in a safe way

Increase your total ICU capacity

Get ready to prepare ICU areas where to cohort COVID-19 + patients - in every hospital if necessary

Put in place a triage protocol to identify suspected cases, test them and direct them to the right cohort

Make sure you set clear goals for care with the patients and their families early on

 
 
With our best regards
 
Prof. Maurizio Cecconi           Prof. Antonio Pesenti             Prof. Giacomo Grasselli
President elect, ESICM           University of Milan                University of Milan
Humanitas University, Milan
                                          

ESICM

MAILCHI.MP

 

That's like a letter from a war zone bunker - the human fear in it is palpable, alarming and noteworthy - from professionals...

[emax]

4 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

From ground zero northern Italy... sobering letter, 10% of confirmed cases in ICU is very concerning.

 

Wasn't the previous China and ROW data showing 18-20% in serious or critical? So although still not good, I guess thats better than 20% (assuming the previous data of critical and serious are all in ICU of course)

[Spikecollie]

The French Deputy (MP) for Haut-Rhin is in intensive care with severe respiratory problems due to COVID-19. He was in Parliament last week for questions but not this week.

[Snipper]

Although we don’t want another reason to die or get ill it is worth checking out 

Cancer

WWW.WHO.INT

---

WHO fact sheet on cancer providing key facts and information on figures, causes, risk factors, prevention, early diagnosis, treatment, palliative care, WHO response.

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Spikecollie]

6 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Although we don’t want another reason to die or get ill it is worth checking out 

Cancer

WWW.WHO.INT

---

WHO fact sheet on cancer providing key facts and information on figures, causes, risk factors, prevention, early diagnosis, treatment, palliative care, WHO response.

 

I was only thinking this myself while walking with doglet earlier. Someone suggested that we might wake up and find it snowing, having been so absorbed with COVID-19 not to have checked the models/forecasts! Seriously, there are many many threats out there and the real bugbear of our world is cancer. It is indiscriminate and does kill babies, children and those in their prime of life. It is too easy to get bound up with the real and present danger and to forget that the other bogeymen will still be there when we get out of this. Keep giving to, working with and thinking of cancer charities. I have lost three family members to the wretched thing and have one in current remission.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Spikecollie

[Daniel*]

8 minutes ago, emax said:

Wasn't the previous China and ROW data showing 18-20% in serious or critical? So although still not good, I guess thats better than 20% (assuming the previous data of critical and serious are all in ICU of course)

Not sure think 20% was being hospitalised? In this case half of that half of that are in ICU relying on life supportive equipment, which is very high. Italy has a brilliant health service so I read so to know they are greatly struggling should concern us all. Personally I don’t think the mortality rate is lower than 1% by what I’ve read/seen much more severe than flu.

Edited March 5, 2020 by Daniel*

[Azazel]

3 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I was only thinking this myself while walking with doglet earlier. Someone suggested that we might wake up and find it snowing, having been so absorbed with COVID-19 not to have checked the models/forecasts! Seriously, there are many many threats out there and the real bugbear of our world is cancer. It is indiscriminate and does kill babies, children and those in their prime of life. It is too easy to get bound up with the real and present danger and to forget that the other bogeymen will still be there when we get out of this. Keep giving to, working and thinking of cancer charities. I have lost three family members to the wretched thing and have one in current remission.

My dad is undergoing a clinical trial currently for Myeloma. He recently got out of hospital after a bout of pneumonia. There’s no way he survives this.

[kold weather]

13 minutes ago, emax said:

Wasn't the previous China and ROW data showing 18-20% in serious or critical? So although still not good, I guess thats better than 20% (assuming the previous data of critical and serious are all in ICU of course)

I believe the term that was used was severe or critical, my guess is what Italy is saying 10% would equate to those at the critical level that need intensive care, as opposed to the severe term which I believe roughly equates to hospitalization. 

It is of course quite possible that there are currently 2 strains of this going around, as the results from SK are nowhere near as severe as what is being seen currently in Europe in terms of numbers. I know some scientists have been already speculating this to be the case.

Edited March 5, 2020 by kold weather

[MATTWOLVES 3]

Apperantly in a book of predictions, this corona virus was predicted many years ago, it was said it would attack the respiratory system and there would be no medication to counter it. It goes onto say it will quickly disappear for years, before turning back up again... Rather spooky but non the less interesting. The book was Sylvia Brown... Predictions and prophecies. 

Edited March 5, 2020 by Mattwolves

[Bristawl Si]

3 minutes ago, Daniel* said:

Not sure think 20% was being hospitalised? In this case half of that half of that are in ICU relying on life supportive equipment, which is very high. Italy has a brilliant health service so I read so to know they are greatly struggling should concern us all. Personally I don’t think the mortality rate is lower than 1% by what I’ve read/seen much more severe than flu.

Full facts not available though from that letter you posted. Do we know the age demographics? Do we know details about underlying medical conditions? And the key Q is

Do we know the full facts to make a qualified judgement?

[Spikecollie]

1 minute ago, Azazel said:

My dad is undergoing a clinical trial currently for Myeloma. He recently got out of hospital after a bout of pneumonia. There’s no way he survives this.

Same with my Mum in law who has just finished chemo for Lymphoma. Her hubby has had severe asthma all his life. My husband and the rest of his family are trying to be brave and just encourage them to stay in if the virus spreads widely. Problem is, Mum is very indeoendent and driving to the supermarket was one of the first things she did to reassert that independence after recovering from treatment - she's a Sainsbury's unstoppable and older folks are very resistant to anything that reliquishes their independence. Dad refused home help while Mum was ill because he wanted to cope himself...

[Spikecollie]

5 minutes ago, Mattwolves said:

Apperantly in a book of predictions, this corona virus was predicted many years ago, it was said it would attack the respiratory system and there would be no medication to counter it. It goes onto say it will quickly disappear for years, before turning back up again... Rather spooky but non the less interesting. The book was Sylvia Brown... Predictions and prophecies. 

Let's not go there with "pseudo-science", Mattwolves. Most so called predictions are interpreted coincidences. Let's leave it there - I'm happy for people to believe what they wish but this is not the time or the place...

[Azazel]

Just now, Spikecollie said:

Same with my Mum in law who has just finished chemo for Lymphoma. Her hubby has had severe asthma all his life. My husband and the rest of his family are trying to be brave and just encourage them to stay in if the virus spreads widely. Problem is, Mum is very indeoendent and driving to the supermarket was one of the first things she did to reassert that independence after recovering from treatment - she's a Sainsbury's unstoppable and older folks are very resistant to anything that reliquishes their independence. Dad refused home help while Mum was ill because he wanted to cope himself...

God yeah my Dad is the same. 76 and still runs his own business. Straight out the door to the office unless he’s completely incapacitated or in hospital.

Ive tried to tell him to take this thing Super seriously without scaring him but he doesn’t scare (on the surface anyway) and he’s just so laid back about everything and thinks I overreact.

He has no immune system, he’s overweight and he’s just had pneumonia. I am absolutely fearing the worst and reading that letter out of Milan has just hit me like a sledgehammer.

[matty40s]

37 minutes ago, bobbarley said:

That’s 3 diplomats/politicians who have now died from this in Iran, surely more than 107 have died in the general population!

Iran's official figure shows no sign of the reality. If you count the figures from regions and individual hospitals it comes to around 680.

 

[Spikecollie]

1 hour ago, snefnug said:

Was roaming around net trying to find info on that but came across article re France flu epidemic. With 44 deaths so far.  So guess french hospitals will have problems?  https://www.thelocal.fr/20200225/france-declares-flu-epidemic-as-26-people-die
 

Oh crikey, when I had that really horrid throat infection a few weeks ago my doctor said 'flu was completely rife and it still is. It's not an epidemic any more but it is circulating, nasty and deadly. He said it can manifest in many ways too and that if you are fit and healthy and have some resistance to the strain, you may well, as I did, just get a severe sore throat and elevated temperature for a week. Viruses and individual bodies interact very differently.