Novel Coronavirus – China

[kold weather]

9 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

The whole of Europe is not going into lockdown imminently. A lot of the cases in  France, for example, are very clustered and localised and action may well be taken around them but for those outside these areas, life goes on as normal.

I have to diagree, a lot of European countries already are probably just one step away from going to that place, given many countries have closed schools, banned large events, next step is almost certainly a shutdown like we saw in Italy. Maybe not complete country bans, but large parts of countries may well go down. Hard to complete a competition when large parts of Europe are under lockdowns

[Summer Sun]

12 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

The whole of Europe is not going into lockdown imminently. A lot of the cases in  France, for example, are very clustered and localised and action may well be taken around them but for those outside these areas, life goes on as normal.

Similar could happen in UK with say London and the SE getting locked down if they start and see large clusters whilst the rest of UK remains open.

 

I think it's similar in Italy where they've got loads of cases in Lombardy but fewer cases further south

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[beatpete]

Father of student at Swansea uni has it, student lives with Father and attended all last week, uni told a few select people but they were told to keep it quite, l know one of them who show me the messages, warned a relative who works in senior role at same Dept as they have serious health issues, they were leading a big trade event. Relative approched top brass who said , oh you found out.... Trade event cancelled last min...... Relative is furious....

[nick sussex]

Researchers in Ariege are developing a test for the virus which can give immediate results .

In terms of cases reported so far in this part of France in depts bordering the Pyrenees which shows the huge divergence across the country .

Pyrenees Atlantiques 2

Hautes Pyrenees  1 

Ariege 0

Pyrenees Orientales 0

Haute Garonne does have several cases but none in the southern part bordering the mountains .

It remains a mystery as to why we’ve seen this .

The area isn’t really isolated , there are loads of decent sized towns and some cities.

I can’t see this continuing for much longer given the huge increase in cases elsewhere . Although I hope it does given I live down here ! 

Edited March 11, 2020 by nick sussex

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

[Spikecollie]

3 minutes ago, kold weather said:

I have to diagree, a lot of European countries already are probably just one step away from going to that place, given many countries have closed schools, banned large events, next step is almost certainly a shutdown like we saw in Italy. Maybe not complete country bans, but large parts of countries may well go down. Hard to complete a competition when large parts of Europe are under lockdowns

Parts of some countries may have more restrictions but only parts. For some reason, that we will eventually come to know, the situation in Italy escalated very quickly. As we have seen from Italy and from the excellent comments from one of our Slovakian members earlier, lockdown is rather a loose term!

I am assumng that the competition you are referring to is football. Sporting and entertainment events are completely non-essential (Cheltenham races should never have been allowed to go ahead) and should be the first to go - sorry!

[Summer Sun]

 

[Allseasons-Si]

A good evening to you all

it took me quiet a while to read through this thread today with some astonishing facts/figures and good post's and chat,who else's anxiety is creeping up 

it doesn't take a rocket scientist to see what has happened so far around the world and the circumstances that have impacted in a lot of lives that have been lost

ok we didn't know about this virus when it first hit China but we soon got to know about it,then when it hit Italy big time,this is when we should of acted sooner in my book

me and my partner have never done so much cleaning around the home,it's crazy and i am starting to get worried about going to work every morning fearing that i will catch this virus,i don't go anywhere else now but just work because i have to,oh i travel to the local Tesco also and i have never been in and out that quick before,holding my breath as i pass people,seen it with others too

if it is possible,once we all get through this that i recommend a meet up with all the NW gang,that would seen like a good idea

 

[Summer Sun]

 

[Spikecollie]

10 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

Similar could happen in UK with say London and the SE getting locked down if they start and see large clusters whilst the rest of UK remains open.

 

I think it's similar in Italy where they've got loads of cases in Lombardy but fewer cases further south

Sensible thoughts at last! I think some of our younger folk in particular, imagine a B-movie scenario of everyone country/Europe-wide being held in their homes at gunpoint!

By the way, I discovered something interesting today. In current French law there is no mechanism to compulsorily require an individual to comply with a public health order. You can ask but you cannot demand/enforce something like self isolation or quarantine.

Edited March 11, 2020 by Spikecollie

[Snipper]

So you are in a lock down area or quarantined what are you going to do with your time?  

[Summer Sun]

Regional breakdown in Italy brackets donate changes with yesterday

• Lombardy 7,280 (+1,489)
• Emilia-Romagna 1,739 (+206)
• Veneto 1,023 (176)
• Piedmont 501 (48)
• Marche 479 (85)
• Liguria 194 (53)
• Campania 154 (27)
• Tuscany 320
• Sicily 83 (21)
• Lazio 150 (34)
• Friuli-Venezia Giulia 126 (10)
• Abruzzo 38 (-)
• Puglia 77 (18)
• Umbria 46 (9)
• Bolzano 75 (37)
• Calabria 19 (6)
• Sardinia 37 (17)
• Valle D'Aosta 20 (3)
• Trento 77 (25)
• Molise 16 (1)
• Basilicata 8 (1)

[nick sussex]

I think the lesson from Italy is if you’re going to do drastic measures don’t mess around .

Trying to lessen short term pain will just mean you prolong it .

They should really shut down everthing all businesses bar supermarkets and pharmacies. Only those workers and essential services should be allowed .

This might seem brutal but the situation there is catastrophic.

Edited March 11, 2020 by nick sussex

[Sky Full]

I seem to be spending far too much time trying to figure out what will be the best chance of stopping this virus in it's tracks....

1:  Vaccine?  No - that's a year to 18 months away from being realistically available in large enough quantities.

2:  Prevention of transmission by quarantine?  No - that would only work if everyone in the world was made to stay at home for at least four weeks with no contact with anyone else - because you would have to be sure that everyone who has already caught it has fully recovered before you let everyone else out again.  We will see if Italy manages to make a success of their own 'lockdown' but I suspect it's too late for the rest of the world.  But surely a quarantine period of this magnitude would be ruinous to the world economy anyway?

3:  Prevention of transmission by creating a 'herd immunity' - Yes!  This would work after enough people have contracted the virus and recovered with full immunity.  As the remaining pool of uninfected people becomes more and more diluted the virus will struggle to reinfect new victims.  Those few still actively carrying the virus will then recover without passing it on and after that, no more virus? 

If this is true, then perversely our best policy is to try and infect as many low-risk people as possible, and as fast as possible, so that they recover on their own, become immune, and then the virus has nowhere to go.  In this case gatherings like Cheltenham races are just what is called for so the virus can be passed around as many people as possible!  The elderly, infirm and sufferers from chronic illnesses will have to be isolated as much as possible in the meantime to keep the number of fatalities to the minimum, but these are the very people who will find it easiest to keep their distance from other people until the danger of infection has passed.

Not sure if there is any scientific basis to this theory and it's likely there is a flaw in the argument somewhere that I'm not seeing.   I'm sure there are people on here who will correct me if I have completely misunderstood the way a virus behaves?

[Spikecollie]

1 minute ago, Snipper said:

So you are in a lock down area or quarantined what are you going to do with your time?  

Lots of running with doglet, gardening and DIY! Assuming I/we stayed well, we have enough food to last for months and plenty of capacity now spring is here to grow more. I assume that being on a permanent contract I'd be paid at least something (or compensated) for quite a while so that doesn't worry me. It's the people I work with that I would be worried for, the elderly, ill and disabled - scared witless, surrounded by perceived or actual chaos and helpless.

[Spikecollie]

31 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Is the reason France has more cases than UK because you an hour ahead of us?

Probably - anything is plausible these days!

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

So looks like Trump statement later is buy american drugs 

Edited March 11, 2020 by Wiltshire_snow_lover

[nick sussex]

I think people when faced with such a grave situation will pull together .

If everyone’s in the same boat . Retail workers in supermarkets and those in pharmacies should be given extra  protection .

In a situation where they are dealing with the public and are effectively providing an essential service in terms of food and medicine .

[Snipper]

4 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Lots of running with doglet, gardening and DIY! Assuming I/we stayed well, we have enough food to last for months and plenty of capacity now spring is here to grow more. I assume that being on a permanent contract I'd be paid at least something (or compensated) for quite a while so that doesn't worry me. It's the people I work with that I would be worried for, the elderly, ill and disabled - scared witless, surrounded by perceived or actual chaos and helpless.

And if you were living in a flat in the middle of an urban area?

[Spikecollie]

5 minutes ago, Sky Full said:

 

If this is true, then perversely our best policy is to try and infect as many low-risk people as possible, and as fast as possible, so that they recover on their own, become immune, and then the virus has nowhere to go.  In this case gatherings like Cheltenham races are just what is called for so the virus can be passed around as many people as possible!  The elderly, infirm and sufferers from chronic illnesses will have to be isolated as much as possible in the meantime to keep the number of fatalities to the minimum, but these are the very people who will find it easiest to keep their distance from other people until the danger of infection has passed.

Not sure if there is any scientific basis to this theory and it's likely there is a flaw in the argument somewhere that I'm not seeing.   I'm sure there are people on here who will correct me if I have completely misunderstood the way a virus behaves?

Interesting - like an international "chickenpox party"!

[nick sussex]

2 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

So looks like Trump statement later is buy american drugs 

Is that it ! 

He’s droning on about Buy American and not addressing the appalling response of his administration.

Sorry but he’s a fxcking social psychopath ! No humanity , no compassion , nothing .

All he cares about is his re election campaign and couldn’t give a fig how many Americans die !

 

[mountain shadow]

10 minutes ago, on the coast said:

China brings the world too its knees and then profits. Who would have thought it?

It was alright when the British Empire did it though?

[Spikecollie]

2 minutes ago, Snipper said:

And if you were living in a flat in the middle of an urban area?

Indoor exercise. Get some window sill potted herbs and veggies going. Start to learn a new language. Knit or sew. DIY. Lots of reading. The list could go on according to your fancy.

[Summer Sun]