Novel Coronavirus – China

[swebby]

From the Gurniad

"Another update on the situation with the Diamond Princess cruise ship off Japan, after 44 new cases were confirmed onboard.

Japan’s health minister, Katsunobu Kato, said five of the patients sent to hospitals earlier have severe symptoms and are on artificial respirators or under intensive care.

The ship, which is still carrying about 3,500 passengers and crew members, now has 218 people infected with the virus out of 713 people tested, the largest cluster of infections outside China."

So five of 218 have progressed to requiring acute medical care.

We can ignore the 44 new cases as of today, it is too soon to include them so the raw figure is really 5 out of 174.  This is, potentially, reassuringly lower than the 20% critical care figure that has been showing across China. It is however assuming that there is not a  really significant lag between confirmed cases on the Diamond Princess and admission to ICU?

[Gray-Wolf]

21 minutes ago, Azazel said:

Crikey, we are well ahead of schedule already!

 

Also, I'm so sorry to hear about your loss. I lost my younger sister in 2006 after she caught a cold which went on to overwhelm her immune system, so I too suffer from a bit of PTSD when it comes to these kinds of viruses etc. I know when I get a particularly nasty cold (or the flu as i had at christmas) I always have this little niggling worry in the back of my mind that the same thing will happen to me.

 

To add to this also - my father has multiple myeloma and just managed to fight off a bout of pneumonia, so I am genuinely terrified for his safety once this gets a foothold in the UK.

Solidarity my friend, non of this is as easy as some of the 'oh so clever's' would try and have us believe?

The sad fact of life is that Pandemics (like floods) are par for the course and we have been fortunate to have had a century without a death toll that impacts everybody?

Once we've seen such many will revise their opinions of our sensitivity to such?

The  number of folks who have treated me as 'crazy' for my fear of zoonotic transfer from a Chinese wet market (be it from chickens or pigs?) when coupled with the Chinese New Year mass transit of peoples......well here we are and my mistake was not casting the net wider to include Bats/Snakes/Pangolins!

The thing that always amazed me was that if I could hold such deep concerns why not others of equal ability? Is it just the way we are 'hard wired'? When I look at AGW and folks 'luke warm' attitudes over the period we could have made a difference the answer screams 'Yes'..... the same now, only when it is bearing down upon them will such folk suddenly discover the concerns we have held for years?

'Fight or Flight' response is a beggar in itself as it demands we 'See' clear and present danger and not that we 'perceive' the potential for danger if we do not act swiftly to avoid such?

Doomsayer/Catastrophists..... what are they when the Doom/catastrophe arrives? ..... prescient???

Be well my friend and do what you can to stay that way!!!

 

Edited February 13, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[swebby]

3 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Solidarity my friend, non of this is as easy as some of the 'oh so clever's' would try and have us believe?

The sad fact of life is that Pandemics (like floods) are par for the course and we have been fortunate to have had a century without a death toll that impacts everybody?

Once we've seen such many will revise their opinions of our sensitivity to such?

The  number of folks who have treated me as 'crazy' for my fear of zoonotic transfer from a Chinese wet market (be it from chickens or pigs?) when coupled with the Chinese New Year mass transit of peoples......well here we are and my mistake was not casting the net wider to include Bats/Snakes/Pangolins!

The thing that always amazed me was that if I could hold such deep concerns why not others of equal ability? Is it just the way we are 'hard wired'? When I look at AGW and folks 'luke warm' attitudes over the period we could have made a difference screams 'Yes'..... the same now, only when it is bearing down upon them will such folk suddenly discover the concerns we have held for years?

'Fight or Flight' response is a beggar in itself as it demands we 'See' clear and present danger and not that we 'perceive' the potential for danger if we do not act swiftly to avoid such?

Doomsayer/Catastrophists..... what are they when the Doom/catastrophe arrives? ..... prescient???

Be well my friend and do what you can to stay that way!!!

 

 

As an aside - the role of bat's in zoonotic disease is interesting. 

I had wondered as to why they are always seemingly linked as a vector and i had assumed it was to do do with them being airborne and living in large colonies. Having done a wee bit of reading, that is actually not the case, although it probably plays a part.  It is to do with bats having a highly unusual autoimmune response for a mammal, probably as a result of their metabolism being geared way up for for winged flight. This means they are very good at harbouring viruses without becoming critically ill or dying.  In effect, they are asymptomatic, flying, petri dishes.

[Azazel]

14 minutes ago, swebby said:

From the Gurniad

"Another update on the situation with the Diamond Princess cruise ship off Japan, after 44 new cases were confirmed onboard.

Japan’s health minister, Katsunobu Kato, said five of the patients sent to hospitals earlier have severe symptoms and are on artificial respirators or under intensive care.

The ship, which is still carrying about 3,500 passengers and crew members, now has 218 people infected with the virus out of 713 people tested, the largest cluster of infections outside China."

So five of 218 have progressed to requiring acute medical care.

We can ignore the 44 new cases as of today, it is too soon to include them so the raw figure is really 5 out of 174.  This is, potentially, reassuringly lower than the 20% critical care figure that has been showing across China. It is however assuming that there is not a  really significant lag between confirmed cases on the Diamond Princess and admission to ICU?

To add to this, the majority of the passengers are "elderly" (cruises being popular among retirees etc).

[Gray-Wolf]

9 minutes ago, Azazel said:

To add to this, the majority of the passengers are "elderly" (cruises being popular among retirees etc).

Having suffered from a virus that went 'rogue' , and seeing what the second wave of 'Spanish Flu' became/did I no longer think of a virus 'trimming out' the weak and sickly.

We know we have no immunity to Covid-2019 but we do not know how its evolution will go as it spreads more widely?

As it is it appears to be the worst of all cases in its ability to spread whilst the carrier is still well but also able to survive up to 20 days on a stainless steel surface when temp/humidity are favourable?

As such I think we must assume we WILL all become exposed to it at some point but , like the Spanish Flu, will one of the passes through communities be far worse than others due to an unfavourable (for humans?) mutation?

Do we end up having 'pox parties' just to get it over with or do we try and avoid it for as long as possible to allow medical science to come up with better solutions to it?

[Summer Sun]

 

[Gray-Wolf]

9 minutes ago, Summer Sun said:

 

But where had they been prior to that?

Was it just in the terminal at Heathrow or did they make it to their hotel before calling for the Uber?

Did they not touch anything in the terminal or did they sdit to await their baggage?

Did they grab a snack before travelling on?

Who unloaded their luggage ?(I guess the handle was covered in shed virus?)

What of the folk who shared the flight with her? How many folk have they had contact with before they are tracked down and tested?

This thing appears determined to 'get out among us' and yet we are still not making any changes to our own routines to up our chances of avoiding accidental self contamination?

Willing to risk a run in with it rather than feel silly/paranoid?

Sometimes being practically house bound has its advantages......

Sometimes just being nearly flooded, and the decontamination (via bleach) of the Valley, has its advantages.....

Edited February 13, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]

Maybe this is why males seem to suffer worse than the Ladies from Covid-19?

C'mon fellas, put that lid DOWN!!!!

Now wash your hands.....

Pathogens linger in toilet for hours if you flush with lid up, study finds

WWW.SCMP.COM

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Droplets polluted with pathogens can follow air flow and be carried to other rooms in a home.

 

Edited February 13, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[fujita5]

Eight-month-old baby boy feared to be UK's youngest coronavirus case

WWW.STANDARD.CO.UK

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A baby boy is feared to be the youngest person in the UK suffering from coronavirus after he was reportedly treated by an infected GP. The eight-month-old...

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

2 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Eight-month-old baby boy feared to be UK's youngest coronavirus case

WWW.STANDARD.CO.UK

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A baby boy is feared to be the youngest person in the UK suffering from coronavirus after he was reportedly treated by an infected GP. The eight-month-old...

 

 

Well that's it, the SE is done for! Folk with the virus trailing around london before self presenting, 2 GP's passing it to all and sundry.....

Better we just abandon it to its fate...... no need to lock it down as they don't bother with the North anyways.......

[Bristawl Si]

5 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Well that's it, the SE is done for! Folk with the virus trailing around london before self presenting, 2 GP's passing it to all and sundry.....

Better we just abandon it to its fate...... no need to lock it down as they don't bother with the North anyways.......

Hmm...chips or mashed pots this eve?

[Gray-Wolf]

9 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Hmm...chips or mashed pots this eve?

I believe it will be mashed, mixed with pasta flour, rolled and seasoned, cut into thumb knuckle to nail sized 'pillows' then blanched in boiling waters for a couple of mins until it floats?.......

EDIT: If you haven't tried it don't  gnocchi it!!!!

Edited February 13, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Guest Delete Me]

Suspected case(s) here in Crewe according to the local FB group...

Ambulance on Electricity street with paramedics in hazmat suits - unverified 'report's some saying its nCoV and some saying its a dead body.

[Gray-Wolf]

London's second coronavirus patient? Paramedics in hazmat suits march a man out of Paddington flat | Daily Mail Online

WWW.DAILYMAIL.CO.UK

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Two medics in full protective gowns, gloves and face masks escorted a man out of the block of flats in Paddington and loaded him into the back of an ambulance at around...

 

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, Summer Sun said:

 

Shocking! A human being travelling by taxi. Whatever next?!

[Gray-Wolf]

1 minute ago, Bristle boy said:

Shocking! A human being travelling by taxi. Whatever next?!

The tube?

Doctor warns London's underground system could be breeding ground for coronavirus

WWW.NEWSWEEK.COM

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The risk to the public remains low, but a confirmed case in a highly-populated area like London increases the chances of additional cases.

 

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Shocking! A human being travelling by taxi. Whatever next?!

I'd be more concerned had he walked...and shaken hands with everyone he met!

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I'd be more concerned had he walked...and shaken hands with everyone he met!

Or forcibly snogged the taxi driver

"Snogged" - there's a blast from the past!

[Gray-Wolf]

Hope we've not got any dental appointments booked?

Dentists across Britain face closing next week over 'desperate' shortage of masks - Mirror Online

WWW.MIRROR.CO.UK

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The British Dental Association said some larger clinics in the UK will run out of masks by the middle of next week and will not be able to treat patients safely under...

EDIT: I'm am so glad we kept hold of our N95's from our time with Luke!

If Dentists can't source them then I doubt the public will be able to?

Edited February 13, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[fujita5]

17 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Shocking! A human being travelling by taxi. Whatever next?!

This sort of reporting isn't helpful - I know Uber isn't everyone's cup of tea but every report like this stigmatises another group/company/ethnicity.  The authorities should be able to get about their business of contacting 'at risk' people and warning them they may have come into contact with a carrier, without the media having this level of access.

Yes we need to know what's happening but we're just a few headlines away from the dreaded 'headless chicken syndrome' that I was talking about last week.

[Ryukai]

50 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Shocking! A human being travelling by taxi. Whatever next?!

Busses........ there's ALWAYS someone coughing up a lung on a bus.....

[Bristawl Si]

2 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Busses........ there's ALWAYS someone coughing up a lung on a bus.....

Planes, trains, automobiles, office, factory, pub, home - it's rife; you cant escape it! Unfortunately, it's an 'occupational' hazard of being a living being.

[fujita5]

Just now, Bristle boy said:

Planes, trains, automobiles, office, factory, pub, home - it's rife; you cant escape it! Unfortunately, it's an 'occupational' hazard of being a living being.

Exactly.  The virus is in the UK therefore it's going to do the rounds.  Best thing for everyone is to be aware of it and follow any advice given to minimise transmission.

[Gray-Wolf]

9 minutes ago, Ryukai said:

Busses........ there's ALWAYS someone coughing up a lung on a bus.....

I think most people, if not confined with a case, will have no notion they are being infected as it will be 'self administered' via transfer from a hard surface to mouth/eyes/nose?

With the life expectancy of the virus outside of the host seeming to increase week on week then ,my best guess, is that the first UK wave will be from such transfers and not from folk sneezing/coughing in your face?

Be mindful what your hands are doing (don't go scratching/picking/rubbing areas that have mucus membranes?) and take sanitizer with you when you're out and about so you can 'clean up' after touching hard surfaces?

Edited February 13, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Gray-Wolf]