Novel Coronavirus – China

[Beverley Lass]

25 minutes ago, CreweCold said:

One a side note, why are people so filthy? I was at work yesterday and two youths walked past, one of them coughing their guts up and proceeding to 'gob' it out everywhere...in strong winds. 

I can't tell you how angry stuff like that makes me, zero respect for anyone else around them. Just vile but oh so common a sight.

Yes, yuk CC  !

I was pleased to see hand sanitizer at my GP's .. right next to the self log-in screen everyone touches.
I waited half an hour for the Doctor and noted I was the only one who made use of it .. amongst dozens of poorly patients.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

41 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Ok, here's a future scenario:

This strain of CV, becomes the norm, like common influenza, that we all know today.

Scientists cannot stamp it out (like influenza)

There is no cure (like flu)

Every Autumn a jab is given to vunerable people, like the elderly, children, pregnant women, etc. Others go to their pharmicist to pay for a jab (voluntary)

So, in that case would people really view it as any different to influenza? Would people avoid going out? 

Nope. People would get used to 'it' being in society, and just like today, when they get a heavy cold or flu, will try to minimise its severity, pain, etc. They'll hope no one spreads it in the office or workplace, will hope people stay at home or self-isolate - great new term that one! And hope people practice good hygiene and common sense, before most get better.

Are you not missing the point of its initial sweep through the globe and the issues that this will drive in itself B.B.?

W.H.O. are still trying to 'contain it' so we do not face that scenario and , at least, try to slow the spread so health care in the developed world is not over run over 'peak infection'?

We are told (as the developed world) to 'help out' our developing Nations yet we see tRump trimming his foreign aid monies and here in the UK some parties call for our budget to be likewise reduced.

It would appear that even with corruption rife through their system Chna can throw the kinds of resources at the issue we see them doing ('hospitals in 10 days' whilst we sit here in Mytholmroyd 4 years into a replacement bridge....) as the monies workers produce via their toil does not end up in the pockets of a select few (who then then refuse to stump up their taxes willingly and go to obscene lengths to 'hide' from the Tax man???)

Will we see our 'billionaires' turn all philanthropic through this or will we see them 'bug out' and leave us to it?

 

[Gray-Wolf]

World must consider coronavirus 'public enemy number one' -WHO | Reuters Video

UK.REUTERS.COM

---

The World Health Organization asked countries to be "as aggressive as possible" in fighting the newly named COVID-19 coronavirus on Tuesday. Emer McCarthy reports.

 

[Bristawl Si]

27 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Are you not missing the point of its initial sweep through the globe and the issues that this will drive in itself B.B.?

W.H.O. are still trying to 'contain it' so we do not face that scenario and , at least, try to slow the spread so health care in the developed world is not over run over 'peak infection'?

We are told (as the developed world) to 'help out' our developing Nations yet we see tRump trimming his foreign aid monies and here in the UK some parties call for our budget to be likewise reduced.

It would appear that even with corruption rife through their system Chna can throw the kinds of resources at the issue we see them doing ('hospitals in 10 days' whilst we sit here in Mytholmroyd 4 years into a replacement bridge....) as the monies workers produce via their toil does not end up in the pockets of a select few (who then then refuse to stump up their taxes willingly and go to obscene lengths to 'hide' from the Tax man???)

Will we see our 'billionaires' turn all philanthropic through this or will we see them 'bug out' and leave us to it?

 

I wondered how long you'd take to bring your politics into it. The better off and rich effectively fund our NHS and Welfare State through their higher income and therefore higher prop of taxation.

As for the Chinese hospitals - well, i suspect much of the labour was not voluntary, so to speak.

Edited February 11, 2020 by Bristle boy

[Gray-Wolf]

Let's just see how the rest of the week pans out B.B.?

There is no 'wrong or right' in this just a matter of keeping folk clear on the latest information that we come across surely?

I was a teen in 1980 and our govt , at that time, were insisting we did not "Die of ignorance"...... kinda stuck with me this far.....

[Dreckly]

Clinical Characteristics of 138 Hospitalized Patients With 2019 Novel Coronavirus–Infected Pneumonia in Wuhan, China | Critical Care Medicine | JAMA | JAMA Network

JAMANETWORK.COM

---

This single-center case series describes the demographics, symptoms, laboratory and imaging findings, treatment, and clinical course of 138 patients hospitalize

 

[Bristawl Si]

7 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Let's just see how the rest of the week pans out B.B.?

There is no 'wrong or right' in this just a matter of keeping folk clear on the latest information that we come across surely?

I was a teen in 1980 and our govt , at that time, were insisting we did not "Die of ignorance"...... kinda stuck with me this far.....

Not sure about "rest of the week"; more like rest of the year, i suspect. I admit i cant help comparing it to influenza or a very heavy cold. The figures for influenza, here and elsewhere, acts like a benchmark, in my mind. Is this strain of CV really any worse?

Latest figs for UK is 1300+ tests, 8 known infected. The Scout guy from Brighton already recovered, according to him, but still under last days of observe.

I have faith in what the Government, health authorities and NHS are doing to combat this. I suspect our own 'common people' will be the ones that compromise future health on this one.

Edited February 11, 2020 by Bristle boy

[swebby]

1 hour ago, Bristle boy said:

Ok, here's a future scenario:

This strain of CV, becomes the norm, like common influenza, that we all know today.

Scientists cannot stamp it out (like influenza)

There is no cure (like flu)

Every Autumn a jab is given to vunerable people, like the elderly, children, pregnant women, etc. Others go to their pharmicist to pay for a jab (voluntary)

So, in that case would people really view it as any different to influenza? Would people avoid going out? 

Nope. People would get used to 'it' being in society, and just like today, when they get a heavy cold or flu, will try to minimise its severity, pain, etc. They'll hope no one spreads it in the office or workplace, will hope people stay at home or self-isolate - great new term that one! And hope people practice good hygiene and common sense, before most get better.

Just to point out that this scenario would be unlikely for a coronavirus.

The reason there is a seasonal flu jab is because significantly different strains appear every year.  Influenza is unusual in that it's genetic material (RNA) is split into separate segments. As a result, if a host is infected with two different strains at the same time, then it becomes very easy for bits of genetic material from each strain to swap places and create an entirely novel strain. This daughter strain can be significantly different in it's protein make up to either of the individual parent strains and so is capable of bypassing any acquired immunity, even if a host was infected with a parent strain in the previous year.  Each year, predictions are made as to what strains are expected to be the problematic ones (both new strains, plus virulent older strains) and the flu jab tries incorporate these.

For coronaviruses, the genetic material is a single strand of RNA so this swapping about is not a readily available option. So once infected, you should have immunity that will last for a while* and therefore not need a yearly vaccine. *The virus will actually evolve (gentic drift) so eventually you will no longer be immune. This however is a gradual and ongoing affair and means that having a vaccine becomes a bit of waste of time as you have no idea whom you should administer it to? - i.e it will only be effective on a percentage of the population that were infected  over "x" years ago and that's something you can not readily track.

Edited February 11, 2020 by swebby

[swebby]

26 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Not sure about "rest of the week"; more like rest of the year, i suspect. I admit i cant help comparing it to influenza or a very heavy cold. The figures for influenza, here and elsewhere, acts like a benchmark, in my mind. Is this strain of CV really any worse?

 

In short - yes.

By how much?

Well figures suggest by at least an order of magnitude in terms of mortality. That is the difference between 1 in 500 and 1 in 50 being dead.  Not sure if your a gambling person BB but in terms of putting a bet on at 500/1 and 50/1 you would have a very different view as to if you are backing a winner?

More concerning to my eye is the number of people that require acute medical care.  I'm seeing figures of over 20% for confirmed cases. If that figure is anywhere near correct then we have a very real problem in the event this breaks it's leash and moves through the UK population. The population of England is 60 million, lets say a big out break hits and 0.1% of the population (1 in 1000) are infected at any one time. That's 60,000, less than the capacity of Old Trafford, so apparently not that bad? But if 10% require intensive care that's 6,000 odd! Again not that bad? Well...... ? We only have about 6,000 critical care beds in England!  

Statistics » Critical Care Bed Capacity and Urgent Operations Cancelled

WWW.ENGLAND.NHS.UK

---

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations

 

Edited February 11, 2020 by swebby
correcorrect fig used for England's population and recalculated sums

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

Well that explains that then

[Gray-Wolf]

43 minutes ago, swebby said:

Just to point out that this scenario would be unlikely for a coronavirus.

 

For coronaviruses, the genetic material is a single strand of RNA so this swapping about is not a readily available option. So once infected, you should have immunity that will last for a while* and therefore not need a yearly vaccine. *The virus will actually evolve (gentic drift) so eventually you will no longer be immune. This however is a gradual and ongoing affair and means that having a vaccine becomes a bit of waste of time as you have no idea whom you should administer it to? - i.e it will only be effective on a percentage of the population that were infected  over "x" years ago and that's something you can not readily track.

Thanks for the info swebby!

The chief med officer in Wuhan said (at the back end of last week?) that those recovered from COVID-19 only had immunity for a 'short while' before they could become infected again? I do not know if this is due to its 'novel' status and so is rapidly evolving to better 'fit' its new hosts?

[Spikecollie]

3 hours ago, cheese said:

WHO have to be concerned about any developing epidemic, it’s quite literally their job - much like they eventually classified swine flu as a global pandemic, yet here we are, more than a decade later. The world still turns and the vast majority remain completely unaffected, as has been the case with every other recent endemic/pandemic that ultimately petered out, or turned out to be no worse than the flu for normal healthy adults.

I think we're back to a debate about "the many and the few". This is probably nothing of a threat to those of us who are healthy/resilient enough to withstand it, which is probably the many. There are though, very vulnerable people who are likely to succumb or suffer and who are, or may become, very frightened. As I have suggested before, if we are ever to realise any sort of interdependence in our world and work together on common threats, we need to consider everyone. I don't think it's fine to say "I'm fine" I'd like everyone else to be fine with me...

[DAVID SNOW]

33 minutes ago, Wiltshire_snow_lover said:

 

Well that explains that then

Be interesting to read GW explanation  of this one...

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi David!

I did not know that Thailand had a heavy enough 'load' of infected cases that their penal system is now carrying such ( should they prove to be positive when we get the test results tomorrow?)

What is Thailand's main economic income source b.t.w?

[Gray-Wolf]

18 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I think we're back to a debate about "the many and the few". This is probably nothing of a threat to those of us who are healthy/resilient enough to withstand it, which is probably the many. There are though, very vulnerable people who are likely to succumb or suffer and who are, or may become, very frightened. As I have suggested before, if we are ever to realise any sort of interdependence in our world and work together on common threats, we need to consider everyone. I don't think it's fine to say "I'm fine" I'd like everyone else to be fine with me...

Again there are some not nice vids from within hospitals showing that it is not the old and feeble that are succumbing to this virus?

Maybe our lessons from the Spanish Flu might need revisiting?

I know our auto immune systems can be badly impacted once a virus gets into the blood stream as this is how my issues arose from my 'brush' with H1N1 ? (but then it was a rogue autoimmune that did for so many of the fit ,young folk in the 1918 H1N1 outbreak?)

Edited February 11, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Bristawl Si]

47 minutes ago, swebby said:

 

In short - yes.

By how much?

Well figures suggest by at least an order of magnitude in terms of mortality. That is the difference between 1 in 500 and 1 in 50 being dead.  Not sure if your a gambling person BB but in terms of putting a bet on at 500/1 and 50/1 you would have a very different view as to if you are backing a winner?

More concerning to my eye is the number of people that require acute medical care.  I'm seeing figures of over 20% for confirmed cases. If that figure is anywhere near correct then we have a very real problem in the event this breaks it's leash and moves through the UK population. The population of England is 60 million, lets say a big out break hits and 0.1% of the population (1 in 1000) are infected at any one time. That's 60,000, less than the capacity of Old Trafford, so apparently not that bad? But if 10% require intensive care that's 6,000 odd! Again not that bad? Well...... ? We only have about 6,000 critical care beds in England!  

Statistics » Critical Care Bed Capacity and Urgent Operations Cancelled

WWW.ENGLAND.NHS.UK

---

Health and high quality care for all, <br />now and for future generations

 

I suppose it depends if 10% need intensive care.

Historically, let's go back to April 2009 when Swine Flu, H1N1  reached the UK. In July of that year cases peaked at 120,000 (for that month) in UK; after a slight lull during August and Sept, cases then rose in October to 84,000. 

The Qs are how many needed intensive care then, and did the country cope?

Is this new CV worse or not than the last bad virus to hit the UK? I dunno.

To be quite blunt i remember the headlines about swine flu in 2009, but despite those figures i quoted, i cant remember much panic.

[Spikecollie]

10 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

What is Thailand's main economic income source b.t.w?

Thailand is still a mainly agricultural economy but has a growing service sector, not to mention tourism and manufacturing is not insignificant. Just checked my notes from last year!!!

[Bristawl Si]

10 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I suppose it depends if 10% need intensive care.

Historically, let's go back to April 2009 when Swine Flu, H1N1  reached the UK. In July of that year cases peaked at 120,000 (for that month) in UK; after a slight lull during August and Sept, cases then rose in October to 84,000. 

The Qs are how many needed intensive care then, and did the country cope?

Is this new CV worse or not than the last bad virus to hit the UK? I dunno.

To be quite blunt i remember the headlines about swine flu in 2009, but despite those figures i quoted, i cant remember much panic.

Just looked at weekly figures from April to December 2009 for the swine flu outbreak. At no time in any one week was there more than 180 people in intensive care, across the UK. So, with cases in October of that year of 84,000 and current doctor pros i've seen on tv in recent days, saying many will only experience cold-like symptoms if they catch this strain of CV, is it safe to assume that intensive care will not be stretched if the UK reaches epidemic proportions?

[fujita5]

11 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Just looked at weekly figures from April to December 2009 for the swine flu outbreak. At no time in any one week was there more than 180 people in intensive care, across the UK. So, with cases in October of that year of 84,000 and current doctor pros i've seen on tv in recent days, saying many will only experience cold-like symptoms if they catch this strain of CV, is it safe to assume that intensive care will not be stretched if the UK reaches epidemic proportions?

If 84,000 came down with covid-19 in a month and the severe illness rate is as high as 5% with a death rate of 1%, that means 4,200 in hospital and 840 dead in that month. We'd probably cope with that over the course of a few months, if that was the peak. A few thousand dead and the NHS pushed to its limits.

It'd be the forced quarantine that would cause the most disruption, if the government chose to go down that route. Anybody with a case in the household would be forced to stay indoors for 14 days or more, meaning hundreds of thousands wouldn't be able to work, including teachers, doctors, train drivers, carers, shop staff...  The impact on day to day life would be huge.

Any more cases than that and we'd really start to struggle.

 

[booferking]

14 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Just looked at weekly figures from April to December 2009 for the swine flu outbreak. At no time in any one week was there more than 180 people in intensive care, across the UK. So, with cases in October of that year of 84,000 and current doctor pros i've seen on tv in recent days, saying many will only experience cold-like symptoms if they catch this strain of CV, is it safe to assume that intensive care will not be stretched if the UK reaches epidemic proportions?

Singapore for example 47 cases.

9 recovered & discharged  31 stable  7 in ICU care so that makes it 15% with the small amount of cases in Singapore who will be reporting the truth unlike china.

 

[booferking]

11 minutes ago, booferking said:

Singapore for example 47 cases.

9 recovered & discharged  31 stable  7 in ICU care so that makes it 15% with the small amount of cases in Singapore who will be reporting the truth unlike china.

 

And its alot worse than what china government is reporting, been talking to my suppliers on and off and they say it is bad.

 

[Bristawl Si]

15 minutes ago, booferking said:

Singapore for example 47 cases.

9 recovered & discharged  31 stable  7 in ICU care so that makes it 15% with the small amount of cases in Singapore who will be reporting the truth unlike china.

 

Numbers too small at mo though. Once you get into the 000s you can safely project future likely severe cases.

[swebby]

42 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

I suppose it depends if 10% need intensive care.

Historically, let's go back to April 2009 when Swine Flu, H1N1  reached the UK. In July of that year cases peaked at 120,000 (for that month) in UK; after a slight lull during August and Sept, cases then rose in October to 84,000. 

The Qs are how many needed intensive care then, and did the country cope?

Is this new CV worse or not than the last bad virus to hit the UK? I dunno.

To be quite blunt i remember the headlines about swine flu in 2009, but despite those figures i quoted, i cant remember much panic.

Yep, this is the critical figure.

I hope that the figures i am seeing (ca 20%) requiring ICU admission is heavily skewed by mild cases not being reported/recorded.

I also hope the figures are also at the extreme end thanks to China's less than perfect air quality and love of cancer sticks.  The breakdown of age and gender for fatalities does at first glance suggest that smoking history may be playing a most significant role as to if this disease results in a critical illness or a few days feeling off colour.

But what if my hopes are ill founded and the 20% is true? Then it's a case of oh crap, as the figures i gave tally very well with the figures you correctly list for swine flu in terms of case load.

[Bristawl Si]

11 minutes ago, booferking said:

And its alot worse than what china government is reporting, been talking to my suppliers on and off and they say it is bad.

 

Heartbreaking. They do things differently than 'us'.

I still struggle to really understand how the West has got so 'close' to China in recent years, with their non-human rights culture, but that's a topic for discussion elsewhere.

[Ryukai]

4 hours ago, CreweCold said:

One a side note, why are people so filthy? I was at work yesterday and two youths walked past, one of them coughing their guts up and proceeding to 'gob' it out everywhere...in strong winds. 

I can't tell you how angry stuff like that makes me, zero respect for anyone else around them. Just vile but oh so common a sight.

Because it's become 'normalized' for males to spit all over the floor due to it constantly being shown on TV via football matches/rugby/various other male sporting events etc 

When anyone points out how disgusting sportsmen are when they do this I always reply that it's to help them slide better