Novel Coronavirus – China

[feb1991blizzard]

2 minutes ago, swebby said:

If they come up with a vaccine it would presumably have to be trailed, so yes, they would then need subjects that are virus free and probably those regarded as being at risk. I would advise however that if you are inquiring from your own perspective Feb, and i do understand that you are concerned, trials could easily be in an entirely different country to the UK. 

It's very unlikely that anything will be developed that will work on those once infected.  Anti virals are complicated things at the best of times, not always guaranteed to work (e.g. tamiflu) and for something that dose it's thing in 14-21 days would be a bit of a pointless exercise.  Focus will be on a vaccine, optimists are talking about 6 months for development before trials, others suggesting it will be at least a year.

One thing that may be of comfort Feb, they are also talking about herd immunity. I.e as the virus spreads, those that are infected and recover (the vast majority it would appear) go back out in to the community and are immune. As the numbers of immune people in the community increase, the virus finds it harder and harder to spread. 

What i meant was i would volunteer to have them test drugs on me - if the price was right of course!

[Puddy Galore]

39 minutes ago, swebby said:

Taken from the Gurniad web site.

 

There's always one!

Would be tempted to charge them for the repatriation flight (Virus clearly of enough concern for them to want to leave China) and the costs of the medical tests/care.

I’d go one step further.  Find a charter plane back to whence he/she came and charge that cost along with original repatriation    flight charge plus medical costs.     

[Puddy Galore]

1 hour ago, weirpig said:

We may be under threat   But the pets are well protected.

Poor little moggie stuck in China no place for any moggies.  I’d be hard pressed to get masks on my moggies let alone put them on a lead. 

[fujita5]

14 minutes ago, swebby said:

One thing that may be of comfort Feb, they are also talking about herd immunity. I.e as the virus spreads, those that are infected and recover (the vast majority it would appear) go back out in to the community and are immune. As the numbers of immune people in the community increase, the virus finds it harder and harder to spread. 

Yeah this is interesting.  With colds and some flu viruses, the genetic structure tends to mutate quite often so you can catch it as many times as nature allows.

If this new virus is relatively stable it could easily die down during the summer season and come back with a vengeance in the Autumn, but by then many in China will be immune having had it already, and with a possible vaccine in place it will find it very hard to keep going elsewhere too.

Mutations would then be key for its survival.

[Daniel*]

 

[Gray-Wolf]

1 hour ago, swebby said:

If they come up with a vaccine it would presumably have to be trailed, so yes, they would then need subjects that are virus free and probably those regarded as being at risk. I would advise however that if you are inquiring from your own perspective Feb, and i do understand that you are concerned, trials could easily be in an entirely different country to the UK. 

It's very unlikely that anything will be developed that will work on those once infected.  Anti virals are complicated things at the best of times, not always guaranteed to work (e.g. tamiflu) and for something that dose it's thing in 14-21 days would be a bit of a pointless exercise.  Focus will be on a vaccine, optimists are talking about 6 months for development before trials, others suggesting it will be at least a year.

One thing that may be of comfort Feb, they are also talking about herd immunity. I.e as the virus spreads, those that are infected and recover (the vast majority it would appear) go back out in to the community and are immune. As the numbers of immune people in the community increase, the virus finds it harder and harder to spread. 

No help from 'herd immunity' I'm afraid as the Drs in China tell us any immunity gained by having it is quickly lost and the person can then become infected again?

Then we have today's helping telling us that 'incubation' can be 3 to 24, yes 24!, days!!!

So it's airborne, can live on hard surfaces up to 5 days and you're shedding virus even when you feel fine.......

This will be big folks , make no mistakes!

[Gray-Wolf]

Death rate for patients hospitalised with coronavirus in Wuhan nearly 20 per cent, study shows

WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

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The death rate for patients hospitalised with the coronavirus at the epicentre of the outbreak is nearly 20 per cent, according to new estimates.

 

[swebby]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

No help from 'herd immunity' I'm afraid as the Drs in China tell us any immunity gained by having it is quickly lost and the person can then become infected again?

 

Surprising, as once you raise your own antibodies to an infection they are with you for good - i.e. acquired immunity.

Unless! There is more than one strain.....?

[fujita5]

20 minutes ago, swebby said:

Surprising, as once you raise your own antibodies to an infection they are with you for good - i.e. acquired immunity.

Unless! There is more than one strain.....?

One Chinese doctor was cited as saying there were several strange mutations found in the virus within one family, however this wasn't backed up by studies conducted outside of China, which found the same initial strain.

Curioser and curioser….

[Snipper]

3 hours ago, Daniel* said:

 

Isn’t this where the person who has infected a lot of people (allegedly) ended up?  Difficult telling the truth about reports being thrown around.  If it was wonder how many friends he now has?

[Gray-Wolf]

1 hour ago, swebby said:

Surprising, as once you raise your own antibodies to an infection they are with you for good - i.e. acquired immunity.

Unless! There is more than one strain.....?

If you think of the 2 coronavirus responsible for 1/4 of 'common colds' .....we never gain full protection from them either?

Maybe the mutations made ,each time it impacts another host, mean we can't keep up to it and so face it 'anew' each time we contact it?

With UK numbers now acting like the early days of the outbreak in China I think it safe to assume we are now a reservoir for the virus and onlty time now stands between us and those case going from 'asymptomatic' to full blown infected.....

Time to think about hand sanitizer in your pockets (and frequent application!) and an N95 for when you are around folk...... or are we willing to risk ourselves over 'looking silly'?

We have a stash of masks from our time with Luke and they are washable so we can keep them disinfected. Seeing as the virus is now airborne but a massive 30 to 50 nm in size a mask like the N95 will intercept and keep you safe from deep inhalation of the virus (it, unlike the Flu and most colds ,is a 'lower respiratory tract' infection so you do not want to be placing into your lower lobes!)

With the bar now being raised to 24 days possible incubation length their are many potential carriers with no idea they have been exposed, and caught, the virus. The numbers will start to pile up as we enter March

Don't say you weren't warned or that you're sorry your lack of 'enthusiasm' for the outbreak has caused the hospitalisation of one close to You!!!

[Snipper]

Off to the medical school later this week doing my volunteering bit. Be interesting how (if they have noticed) they are considering things. 

[Snipper]

More than we’ll aware of the risks and precautions. It is trying to convince others, who are more interested in the likes of Strictly Come Dancing, we need to convince. 

Our daughter has had her spleen removed so the risks for her are very apparent. 

[Summer Sun]

2 new cases today are heath care workers at County Oak Medical Centre in Brighton.

Brackley Medical Centre in Northamptonshire has also closed "due to a potential coronavirus incident" it doesn't as yet have a confirmed case.

[swebby]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

If you think of the 2 coronavirus responsible for 1/4 of 'common colds' .....we never gain full protection from them either?

Maybe the mutations made ,each time it impacts another host, mean we can't keep up to it and so face it 'anew' each time we contact it?

 

That is pretty much the reason GW, the fact they are already endemic means they can keep doing the rounds through millions of hosts and thus have ample opportunity to evolve over a few years to the point that they will bypass any acquired immunity.  Also, there are at least a hundred different viruses that can cause colds, so you could argue that even if you are unlucky and catch a cold a month, it will still be a decade before you work you way through all the available viruses and that is without any evolution.

Now it obviously does not quite work in this linear manner, but with the established human coronaviruses, there are i believe at least four principle strains "known" to cause colds and these all likely have their own subtypes, so lets say you contract one a year, there will be still be plenty enough time for evolution to get to work and allow a later reinfection from a subspecies from the same genus.

The important thing i will say about 2019nCoV.  It's only been about for a few weeks (maybe months) and with less than 100k of hosts, so in comparison to the common cold it's opportunity to evolve is significantly smaller. You would therefore expect that its protein coat sequences will still be very well conserved and so some way away from being able to cause repeat infections?  If reoccurring infections are a thing, then i'd say we are truly unlucky and that there have been at least two subspecies from the get go.

Edited February 10, 2020 by swebby

[Gray-Wolf]

Let's not kid ourselves about the spread.

We will have millions of folk playing host to the little beggar but most will not present to Dr's/Hospitals as the impact is indistinguishable to the 'common cold'

But ,all the while, such folk are actively spreading the virus

The extreme measures, including 'welding into your own home', suggests the Chinese know more about the risks of this virus than we do?

As it is widespread 'disinfecting' of swathes of major population centres seem to 'confirm' airborne infection?

My time with Luke tells me most all folk don't give a toss for those more vulnerable than themselves and our current drive for 'presentism' ,to show you're not a shirker', ensures widespread contagion from those who work in 'close cooperation' with others (office type situations?) as the closed GP's tells us about the risks of merely speaking with a 'shedder'.....

It's here folk and it is around us with spreaders maybe weeks away from falling sick......

[cyclonic happiness]

I've been up and down to hospital at least 6 times in the last 4 weeks, with having an operation, being rushed into A&E with complications, and then follow up appointments.

I was operated on on the 20th Jan', and almost had to cancel due to a very heavy cold.  that passed and in the past 3 days I'm on cold number 2, which i'm sure i picked up at the hospital, as on my last trip to get stitches out, I was kept in a large room with 4 other people and a nurse who was "full of cold but soldiers on anyway" type, who coughed and spluttered over us all, whilst we waited an hour and a half in that room for the surgeon to check us post op (stuck in traffic).

I've never had cold this close together, but it just goes to show how easy it'd be to transmit something more serious.  People must get rid of this "soldier on no matter what, or I'll look weak" or the "I've never had a day off sick in 20 years" idiots.

I'm quite annoyed!  should this be coronavirus, i shall be even more annoyed!

[Azazel]

14 hours ago, cyclonic happiness said:

I've been up and down to hospital at least 6 times in the last 4 weeks, with having an operation, being rushed into A&E with complications, and then follow up appointments.

I was operated on on the 20th Jan', and almost had to cancel due to a very heavy cold.  that passed and in the past 3 days I'm on cold number 2, which i'm sure i picked up at the hospital, as on my last trip to get stitches out, I was kept in a large room with 4 other people and a nurse who was "full of cold but soldiers on anyway" type, who coughed and spluttered over us all, whilst we waited an hour and a half in that room for the surgeon to check us post op (stuck in traffic).

I've never had cold this close together, but it just goes to show how easy it'd be to transmit something more serious.  People must get rid of this "soldier on no matter what, or I'll look weak" or the "I've never had a day off sick in 20 years" idiots.

I'm quite annoyed!  should this be coronavirus, i shall be even more annoyed!

The problem is, many business have practices such as "only 3 sick days/events in a rolling year" - any more and they can sack you.

I get on average probably at least 3 illnesses a year (colds etc) where I don't feel particularly great, but soldier on at work because all it takes is an above-average sickness year for me to get fired if I decide to stay at home.

Believe me, I would rather stay at home when I'm sick, but many many businesses, while claiming they look after their employees best interests, will sack you off if you take too much sick time.

A lot of workers working for agencies and recruiters don't even get sick pay - so they quite literally can't afford to take the time off if they have bills and responsibilities. 

In my experience, it's nothing to do with "looking weak" - more to do with "I'm in debt, have bills to pay and can't afford to lose my job."

[fujita5]

17 minutes ago, Azazel said:

The problem is, many business have practices such as "only 3 sick days/events in a rolling year" - any more and they can sack you.

I get on average probably at least 3 illnesses a year (colds etc) where I don't feel particularly great, but soldier on at work because all it takes is an above-average sickness year for me to get fired if I decide to stay at home.

Believe me, I would rather stay at home when I'm sick, but many many businesses, while claiming they look after their employees best interests, will sack you off if you take too much sick time.

A lot of workers working for agencies and recruiters don't even get sick pay - so they quite literally can't afford to take the time off if they have bills and responsibilities. 

In my experience, it's nothing to do with "looking weak" - more to do with "I'm in debt, have bills to pay and can't afford to lose my job."

Yep, many organisations these days pay minimum wage and offer zero sick pay.  Which is fine if you're lucky enough to be living at home with your parents paying minimal rent and not having large bills.  If you're in the 'real world' you just can't go off sick unless you're actually on your last legs.

Will these companies be made to pay sick pay for employees who are forcibly quarantined for 14 days, and will the government be stumping up this cash?

[Methuselah]

14 minutes ago, Azazel said:

The problem is, many business have practices such as "only 3 sick days/events in a rolling year" - any more and they can sack you.

I get on average probably at least 3 illnesses a year (colds etc) where I don't feel particularly great, but soldier on at work because all it takes is an above-average sickness year for me to get fired if I decide to stay at home.

Believe me, I would rather stay at home when I'm sick, but many many businesses, while claiming they look after their employees best interests, will sack you off if you take too much sick time.

A lot of workers working for agencies and recruiters don't even get sick pay - so they quite literally can't afford to take the time off if they have bills and responsibilities. 

In my experience, it's nothing to do with "looking weak" - more to do with "I'm in debt, have bills to pay and can't afford to lose my job."

IMO, there are way too many want-wits running UK businesses; just how anyone can justify such an archaic attitude towards one's employees simply beggars belief! Would these 'captains of industry' rather see thousands die of an epidemic than they, themselves lose a penny in profit? And, can they overrule a GP's medical certificate? Can they actually sack an employee for having four-days' off sick...should they contract the new coronavirus??

The mind boggles!

[Gray-Wolf]

8 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

IMO, there are way too many want-wits running UK businesses; just how anyone can justify such an archaic attitude towards one's employees simply beggars belief! Would these 'captains of industry' rather see thousands die of an epidemic than they, themselves lose a penny in profit? And, can they overrule a GP's medical certificate? Can they actually sack an employee for having four-days' off sick...should they contract the new coronavirus??

The mind boggles!

We had all this with Luke Pete. Transport staff were bound by those awful 'rolling year sick' controls so staff would turn out even though carrying sickness that was deadly to the precious children on their transport....

I had a word with the seniors and they assured me there was nothing they could do yet then I was blacklisted by drivers/attendants because they'd all taken a roasting for 'looking ill'.....

I used to be a Union Rep at the locaL authority concerned and by God, had I still been able to work,I'd have not let it rest there!!!!

Edited February 11, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[swebby]

45 minutes ago, Azazel said:

The problem is, many business have practices such as "only 3 sick days/events in a rolling year" - any more and they can sack you.

 

Which is a notch up on a zero hour contract, no show = no pay and the potential you will simply not be asked to work again.

[swebby]

32 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

IMO, there are way too many want-wits running UK businesses; just how anyone can justify such an archaic attitude towards one's employees simply beggars belief! Would these 'captains of industry' rather see thousands die of an epidemic than they, themselves lose a penny in profit? And, can they overrule a GP's medical certificate? Can they actually sack an employee for having four-days' off sick...should they contract the new coronavirus??

The mind boggles!

Unfortunately it is corporate group think, shaped to a great extent by the ideas that came out of corporate America and the business schools (e.g. Chicago) in the 60/70's. 

Basically the default position for execs now is that ALL employees will be looking to steal from you, so you should act as if they are the enemy. Ironic really when you consider the scale of boardroom fraud.

Edited February 11, 2020 by swebby

[Gray-Wolf]

Are we trying to win a war with time with regard to the eventual outcome of the 2019-nCoV?

Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked' | World news | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

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Exclusive: Public health epidemiologist says other countries should consider adopting China-style containment measures

if we do see widespread infections grow across the UK surely late spring/summer would be a better time to see it?

With 'ultra violet' one of the most effective disinfectants then the wider environment will keep the shed virus limited in a way that the cold grey streets do not.

Couple this with the winter crisis that is now an annual thing for the NHS the further we can delay the nations infection the better

A death rate of 1% is still a fantastic number of bodies to deal with though......

[fujita5]

16 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Are we trying to win a war with time with regard to the eventual outcome of the 2019-nCoV?

Coronavirus 'could infect 60% of global population if unchecked' | World news | The Guardian

WWW.THEGUARDIAN.COM

---

Exclusive: Public health epidemiologist says other countries should consider adopting China-style containment measures

if we do see widespread infections grow across the UK surely late spring/summer would be a better time to see it?

With 'ultra violet' one of the most effective disinfectants then the wider environment will keep the shed virus limited in a way that the cold grey streets do not.

Couple this with the winter crisis that is now an annual thing for the NHS the further we can delay the nations infection the better

A death rate of 1% is still a fantastic number of bodies to deal with though......

Well that's just frankly unsettling.  God (or deity of your choice) help us if that does happen.

However based on the evidence so far of 'super spreaders' simply wandering around unaware they've got anything in them, that's certainly not out of the realms of possibility.

I think hospitalisation and death rates in most parts of Europe would be generally lower than in China due to better general health, however it would be catastrophic in places like Africa, South America and the Indian subcontinent.