Novel Coronavirus – China

[Gael_Force]

6 minutes ago, swebby said:

The Guardian now reporting that Chinese state run media are saying that Dr Wenliang is actually alive but in a highly critical condition.

“Li Wenliang is currently in critical condition,” the Global Times claimed in the early hours of Friday, local time.

“His heart reportedly stopped beating at around 21:30. He was then given treatment with ECMO (extra-corporeal membrane oxygenation),” it added.

Edit - I will also add that the BBC's report on this story states that local authorities later apologised for they way he was initially sanctioned at the start of January.

I hope the news is correct but mention of ECMO points to treatment of last resort.

[swebby]

1 hour ago, swebby said:

The NHS will be advised later today of the list of additional Asian countries, which having been visited by a patient would require that patient to then be tested for 2019-nCoV.  Presumably these will be Japan, Singapore, Thailand, S. Korea, Malaysia, Taiwan and Vietnam. Possibility of also the Philippines, India, Cambodia, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Russia being on the list. If they come up with any others, that will raise an eyebrow as to where patient #3 has travelled from.

They've released the list and no nasty surprises.

It matches the six countries that i've listed in bold (not surprising, the WHO lists these 6 as having had potential H2H transfers)  plus Hong Kong and Macau which are effectively mainland china anyways.  Was concerned that India/Bangladesh/Pakistan may have been included, that would have raised questions about where patient 3 has travelled too, and, where the virus has truly spread .

Edit

Just noticed they have not listed Vietnam which has also had H2H transfers. Seems a strange omission?

Edited February 6, 2020 by swebby

[ciel]

2 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

A 34 year old doctor, one of the initial whistleblowers, dies after weeks in ICU. 

武汉肺炎：最早公开疫情“吹哨人”李文亮去世

WWW.BBC.COM

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武汉中心医院的李文亮医生最早向外界发出疫情防控预警，但被指造谣而遭警方训诫，他与另外7名被当局警告的人士，一同被外界称为“造谣8君子”。

 

Of course, playing devil's advocate here, is that his concern and interest might have led him to be over-exposed to the virus. Actually, being an ophthalmologist might have made him more vulnerable.

He is not the first 'younger' person to succumb to the virus.

Until more is known about this scenario and the ultimate consequences, my view is that conspiracy theories should be laid to rest and support should be given to China, who, after all, are having to deal with this epidemic.

[swebby]

14 minutes ago, ciel said:

Of course, playing devil's advocate here, is that his concern and interest might have led him to be over-exposed to the virus. Actually, being an ophthalmologist might have made him more vulnerable.

He is not the first 'younger' person to succumb to the virus.

Until more is known about this scenario and the ultimate consequences, my view is that conspiracy theories should be laid to rest and support should be given to China, who, after all, are having to deal with this epidemic.

Not succumbed it appears, but seriously ill none the less.

One thing that is worth considering is, that as a clinician, there is a higher chance that he has got unlucky and has another hospital acquired infection on top of the 2019-ncoV.

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

41 minutes ago, swebby said:

Not succumbed it appears, but seriously ill none the less.

One thing that is worth considering is, that as a clinician, there is a higher chance that he has got unlucky and has another hospital acquired infection on top of the 2019-ncoV.

 

[Cheshire Freeze]

To me, this virus seems more severe than is being reported. We simply cannot risk an outbreak here in the UK. What happens when the NHS is at capacity? People dying in their homes?

[Wiltshire_snow_lover]

 

 

 

Edited February 7, 2020 by Wiltshire_snow_lover

[Gray-Wolf]

I guess the cruise ship is hinting at 2 things;

1/ H2H is a thing

2/The virus has no problem surviving out of the host for extended periods

The disinfecting we see going on across China seems to suggest that they are aware that the virus hangs around on solid surfaces for quite a long while?

So, should we see it take hold here in the UK, face masks are OK if you are around folk but frequent,and thorough, hand washing is the real key to staying well?

I do not like the tales coming out of China that folk putting out social medias reports are finding themselves placed in isolation wards..... it's almost like a sentence of 'Russian roulette' for those brave souls (like the now deceased Dr) trying to alert the World to the seriousness of the outbreak in China and the ways the Govt. are dealing with it.

[swebby]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I guess the cruise ship is hinting at 2 things;

1/ H2H is a thing

2/The virus has no problem surviving out of the host for extended periods

The disinfecting we see going on across China seems to suggest that they are aware that the virus hangs around on solid surfaces for quite a long while?

So, should we see it take hold here in the UK, face masks are OK if you are around folk but frequent,and thorough, hand washing is the real key to staying well?

I do not like the tales coming out of China that folk putting out social medias reports are finding themselves placed in isolation wards..... it's almost like a sentence of 'Russian roulette' for those brave souls (like the now deceased Dr) trying to alert the World to the seriousness of the outbreak in China and the ways the Govt. are dealing with it.

I guess we should, to be correct, now be using terms along the lines of community acquired rather than H2H, which basically distinguishes that something is not being caught directly from an animal?

The big big question - is it airborne or not?  Contagion from contaminated surfaces will be a given.

[Puddy Galore]

bit close to home for me!!

Pictured: Briton on honeymoon cruise diagnosed with coronavirus 

WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

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A British man on his honeymoon is among 41 passengers on a cruise ship in the Japanese port of Yokohama diagnosed overnight with the novel coronavirus, almost trebling the total number of...

I think the concern was how many people he had been in contact with prior to him leaving for his honeymoon.  Weddings wouldn’t be a great gathering for spreading any virus.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Snowycat

[fujita5]

16 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

bit close to home for me!!

Pictured: Briton on honeymoon cruise diagnosed with coronavirus 

WWW.TELEGRAPH.CO.UK

---

A British man on his honeymoon is among 41 passengers on a cruise ship in the Japanese port of Yokohama diagnosed overnight with the novel coronavirus, almost trebling the total number of...

I think the concern was how many people he had been in contact with prior to him leaving for his honeymoon.  Weddings wouldn’t be a great gathering for spreading any virus.

People on cruises stop at ports and mingle with locals and tourists from other nations.  If they picked up the infection and then docked somewhere else and got off the ship, they could have introduced it into new communities.

It seems like the virus moves quite slowly to begin with until there's a decent reservoir of infected humans, at which point it accelerates rapidly as happened in China and is now happening on the 2 'condemned' cruise ships.

Hopefully China has managed to keep their reservoir of infection contained to a degree, but further hotspots are almost inevitable in coming weeks/months.

[Puddy Galore]

8 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

People on cruises stop at ports and mingle with locals and tourists from other nations.  If they picked up the infection and then docked somewhere else and got off the ship, they could have introduced it into new communities.

It seems like the virus moves quite slowly to begin with until there's a decent reservoir of infected humans, at which point it accelerates rapidly as happened in China and is now happening on the 2 'condemned' cruise ships.

Hopefully China has managed to keep their reservoir of infection contained to a degree, but further hotspots are almost inevitable in coming weeks/months.

Wasn’t sure which news headlines momentarily shocked me the most; the potential the novel virus may be closer at hand than I realised or the news about Philip Schofield - still trying to decide which one has surprised me the most   

Edited February 7, 2020 by Snowycat

[Gray-Wolf]

Total 31,526 cases

638 deaths

1,568 recovered

Source: China's NHC, state media, other authorities

SCMP

(Sourced from the hourly updated https://multimedia.scmp.com/widgets/china/wuhanvirus/ )

 

[Snipper]

As far as the cruise ship cases are concerned I wonder how good or otherwise the ships air conditioning is at spreading the virus about? Thinking of the spread of Legionnaires disease. I realise that is spread by a mist but the basic premise of a spread by air conditioning must be a possibility. 

Edited February 7, 2020 by Snipper

[fujita5]

11 minutes ago, Snipper said:

As far as the cruise ship cases are concerned I wonder how good or otherwise the ships air conditioning is at spreading the virus about? Thinking of the spread of Legionnaires disease. I realise that is spread by a mist but the basic premise of a spread by air conditioning must be a possibility. 

I read today on a BBC article that it's not considered to be truly airborne from current research, i.e. it doesn't easily spread through simple breathing - it can however be carried in droplets from coughs and sneezes.  So not sure if air con can easily spread it.

Surfaces that have been touched after coughing/sneezing into hands are the most likely method of transmission I guess?  This would also depend on how long the virus is viable after it's outside of the host.

[Bristawl Si]

20 minutes ago, Snipper said:

As far as the cruise ship cases are concerned I wonder how good or otherwise the ships air conditioning is at spreading the virus about? Thinking of the spread of Legionnaires disease. I realise that is spread by a mist but the basic premise of a spread by air conditioning must be a possibility. 

Having been on a cruise back end of 2019 one is constantly mixing with people on ship. In fact, the confinement issue, plus people's lack of hygiene at times increases risk of ANY disease, virus spreading. Probably a greater risk onboard than in port on walkabout.

But, 

Air travel confinement and spread must be many more times worse for spread of disease - think how confined we are on a plane in a much smaller area. How many flights are there each day across the world? I've lost count of the number of times my wife and I have caught colds/coughs a day or two after leaving a flight. 'Occupational' hazard, for us.

[fujita5]

10 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Having been on a cruise back end of 2019 one is constantly mixing with people on ship. In fact, the confinement issue, plus people's lack of hygiene at times increases risk of ANY disease, virus spreading. Probably a greater risk onboard than in port on walkabout.

But, 

Air travel confinement and spread must be many more times worse for spread of disease - think how confined we are on a plane in a much smaller area. How many flights are there each day across the world? I've lost count of the number of times my wife and I have caught colds/coughs a day or two after leaving a flight. 'Occupational' hazard, for us.

Yep, any concentrated gathering of people is perfect for a virus.

My partner went to see Madonna last Saturday and could hear various people coughing and sneezing in the audience.  Lo and behold she came down with an absolute stinker of a cold on Wednesday....

[pip22]

Another cruise ship got stopped near New York.

 

https://edition.cnn.com/2020/02/07/us/coronavirus-cruise-ship-new-jersey/index.html

4 passengers on a cruise ship docked near New York City are getting further evaluation for coronavirus

 

 

[Snipper]

20 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Having been on a cruise back end of 2019 one is constantly mixing with people on ship. In fact, the confinement issue, plus people's lack of hygiene at times increases risk of ANY disease, virus spreading. Probably a greater risk onboard than in port on walkabout.

But, 

Air travel confinement and spread must be many more times worse for spread of disease - think how confined we are on a plane in a much smaller area. How many flights are there each day across the world? I've lost count of the number of times my wife and I have caught colds/coughs a day or two after leaving a flight. 'Occupational' hazard, for us.

Fortunately the last couple of cruises we have been on were smallish ships (about 900). It was very spacious and you seldom had a lot of people bunched together. Unlike some ships where there are crowded hordes. Problem with going on cheaper cruises.
 

Small ships are also good at getting into small ports unlike those vast ships that look like a broiler house with all its ranks of cages. Sorry I mean balconies. 

Edited February 7, 2020 by Snipper

[Spikecollie]

3 hours ago, Bristle boy said:

 

Air travel confinement and spread must be many more times worse for spread of disease - think how confined we are on a plane in a much smaller area. How many flights are there each day across the world? I've lost count of the number of times my wife and I have caught colds/coughs a day or two after leaving a flight. 'Occupational' hazard, for us.

I was constantly getting "lurgies" when I travelled a lot by air but I was doing a lot of travelling. Despite being meticulous abouit hand washing, not touching toilet doors without tissue etc., there is really no way you can completely protect youself. You have to touch seatbelts, seats, tables and who knows whatever else. I was once struck by the Norovirus just as I boarded a train in northern France (it's a very sudden strike if that is what you really have). I took the train to Paris and flew to Montpellier (I won't describe the events (save that the seatbelt sign was on all the way and I couldn't use the toilets and my Immodium was in my checked bag). I hired a car at Montpellier, went to service stations for their, ehm, facilities. All the time unaware that I had Noro., rather than some sort of food poisoning, which can survive outside a host for a long time.

[Snipper]

4 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

I was constantly getting "lurgies" when I travelled a lot by air but I was doing a lot of travelling. Despite being meticulous abouit hand washing, not touching toilet doors without tissue etc., there is really no way you can completely protect youself. You have to touch seatbelts, seats, tables and who knows whatever else. I was once struck by the Norovirus just as I boarded a train in northern France (it's a very sudden strike if that is what you really have). I took the train to Paris and flew to Montpellier (I won't describe the events (save that the seatbelt sign was on all the way and I couldn't use the toilets and my Immodium was in my checked bag). I hired a car at Montpellier, went to service stations for their, ehm, facilities. All the time unaware that I had Noro., rather than some sort of food poisoning, which can survive outside a host for a long time.

How many do you think you gave Norovirus to in your travels? It is difficult to self quarantine when you are on the move with a timetable to try and stick to.

[Spikecollie]

23 minutes ago, Snipper said:

How many do you think you gave Norovirus to in your travels? It is difficult to self quarantine when you are on the move with a timetable to try and stick to.

And when you don't know what you have got. That was the first time I had ever known about Norovirus. I was so ill after I arrived in the south of France I couldn't even get out of bed that night to answer my neighbour who called. I had left the door open in case I needed to call the emergency services (I felt that bad) and he just called up to me and reassured me that I had what a lot of people had! It's all about contact...one to one or on surfaces.

Edited February 7, 2020 by Spikecollie

[Snipper]

1 minute ago, Spikecollie said:

And when you don't know what you have got. That was the first time I had ever know about Norovirus. I was so ill after I arrived in the south of France I couldn't even get out of bed that night to answer my neighbour who called. I had left the door open in case I needed to call the emergency services (I felt that bad) and he just called up to me and reassured me that I had what a lot of people had! It's all about contact...one to one or on surfaces.

Times like that you just want get to your bed.  Certainly not hang around. 

[Snipper]

Latest situation report WHO.  The China numbers remain puzzling with what seems to be going on there. 
 

[Bristawl Si]

10 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Latest situation report WHO.  The China numbers remain puzzling with what seems to be going on there. 
 

Not just the Chinese numbers that remain puzzling. Just a handful of known cases outside China. It has been around since mid December and the huge amount of global travel, global spread of Chinese travelling, at colleges, etc, who have been home, and then back to other countries over last 6-8 weeks. Yes, it has a long incubation period, but one would've expected a huge spike by now, outside of China.