Novel Coronavirus – China

[Gray-Wolf]

Well that turned political quick and I wasn't even in the room!!!

Think of the 'Air Quality' the likes of Wuhan have been sucking in for 2 decades?

Is that a clue to why their chests are seemingly a tad more frail than those who live outside of China's cities?

But then we have our inner cities and the death rate hike pollution already drives..... will we see areas that spike purely because of compromised lungs due to traffic pollution 'Hot Spots'?

 

 

Mother N. : If you'll not stop doing all this 'polluting' 'voluntarily' I'll give you a pointer why you should......

[Bristawl Si]

17 minutes ago, nick sussex said:

I’m not thinking of some conspiracy . Certainly not some dastardly plot to get rid of the elderly ! Have you been on the sherry earlier than usual ! 

I’m very relieved there aren’t many cases in Europe but equally it’s very hard to explain why exactly that’s happening .

Been thinking much the same, Nick. When one thinks of how global travel, its inevitable integration of peoples, the Middle Class Chinese visting here, and rest of Europe, either as tourists or studying at Uni, colleges, private schools, etc. Add in since mid-December ramped up travel between UK&Europe and China, as many returned home to China during college holiday break, plus returning home for Chinese NY, returning in NY to go back to college here, etc- phew! ......

It does seem bizarre how few, almost if any statiscally speaking, cases there are here and throughout Europe. Maybe, just maybe, it is because of the long(ish) incubation period i.e. no symptoms for weeks. If that is the case, then one would expect a big spike, say, within the next week or so, working from my suggested timetable further up in this post.

I still think most people are not really taking much notice at mo, because we've seen much much worse, from wider influenza outbreaks in some Winters here in the UK and rest of Europe.

[Methuselah]

31 minutes ago, feb1991blizzard said:

Yes, but you are also i am guessing by your status updates a remainer and a centre - Left Liberal Democrat type - probably not disillusioned at the rate of pub closures, the smoking ban, the price of Alcohol etc and are probably happy with things, or were before brexit, so therefore the disease isn't intended to target you.

Quite what any of that can possibly have with a coronavirus is, I freely admit, quite beyond me, feb!

PS: Neither can I see how a naturally occurring virus can be 'intended to target' anybody?? Chemtrails?

Edited February 4, 2020 by General Cluster

[Snipper]

[feb1991blizzard]

11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

Quite what any of that can possibly have with a coronavirus is, I freely admit, quite beyond me, feb!

PS: Neither can I see how a naturally occurring virus can be 'intended to target' anybody?? Chemtrails?

With scientific advances it is easily possible to design viruses to target specific groups - think about Aids - who did that target? Homosexuals, promiscuous people and Black Africans, CIA plot?? - Recurring theme here don't you think?

[fujita5]

1 hour ago, feb1991blizzard said:

With scientific advances it is easily possible to design viruses to target specific groups - think about Aids - who did that target? Homosexuals, promiscuous people and Black Africans, CIA plot?? - Recurring theme here don't you think?

HIV was found in apes as SIV and a mutation got into the human population at some point in the 1920s. This has been widely studied and you can view some very good papers online going back MANY years. I don't think apes were responsible for targeting gays in the Congo back in the 1920s.

[abruzzi spur]

14 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

HIV was found in apes as SIV and a mutation got into the human population at some point in the 1920s. This has been widely studied and you can view some very good papers online going back MANY years. I don't think apes were responsible for targeting gays in the Congo back in the 1920s.

Ah but that's just what they want you to think...... 

[Gray-Wolf]

So we break 500 dead by morning and into  24,000 for infections......

I really think this is a bad one folks!

As to when we will all be taking precautions?

Well it took Wuhan a month from their first serious cases to out of control and lockdown....

How are our two cases doing?

[Frost HoIIow]

4 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

With scientific advances it is easily possible to design viruses to target specific groups - think about Aids - who did that target? Homosexuals, promiscuous people and Black Africans, CIA plot?? - Recurring theme here don't you think?

It has crossed my mind that this *might* have been deliberately put in China to try & decimate it's population with huge reprocussions on its economy. America doesn't like competition. Having said that obviously with world travel it can get elsewhere including the US.

Edited February 4, 2020 by Frost HoIIow

[Daniel*]

Despite Wuhan being effectively shut down the number of cases continues to accelerate international cases also growing. 
 

 

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Hmmmmmm....

 

[Snipper]

7 hours ago, Daniel* said:

Despite Wuhan being effectively shut down the number of cases continues to accelerate international cases also growing. 

 

All increasingly worrying. 

[Snipper]

9 hours ago, Frost HoIIow said:

It has crossed my mind that this *might* have been deliberately put in China to try & decimate it's population with huge reprocussions on its economy. America doesn't like competition. Having said that obviously with world travel it can get elsewhere including the US.

Could be God. From past events he is always up for a bit of smiting

[Gray-Wolf]

3 hours ago, Snipper said:

Could be God. From past events he is always up for a bit of smiting

I'd prefer it to be Mother Nature taking our abuse of her and enforcing 'better behaviours' from us ?

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I'd prefer it to be Mother Nature taking our abuse of her and enforcing 'better behaviours' from us ?

Well it seems as if Mother Nature is been having a go for thousands of years then. So obviously mankind has never got it right. 

[swebby]

19 hours ago, feb1991blizzard said:

With scientific advances it is easily possible to design viruses to target specific groups - think about Aids - who did that target? Homosexuals, promiscuous people and Black Africans, CIA plot?? - Recurring theme here don't you think?

I can assure you that really is not the case feb. 

Viruses are simple, opportunistic, pathogens.  They will spread, if the opportunity presents itself. They will infect, if the host has cells that have suitable proteins that it can latch on to.

HIV simply happens to be a virus that is very limited in how it can spread from host to host, requiring exchange of bodily fluids, ideally blood. This limited it's spread to certain groups that were vulnerable due to social practices or health issues. But if you go and inject a sample of active HIV in to any Human, it will likely infect them regardless of sexuality, race, or religion. Viruses simply do not ask those kind of questions.

The bit i put in bold is important. Humans have a common set of proteins. There are instances where a specific racial group may lack, or be more likely to lack a specific a protein that is found in other racial groups, but the reverse, where a racial group has a protein that is entirely absent for all other racial groups is not something that really occurs.  This means the idea of engineering a virus that can target a specific group of humans is little more than science fiction.  Viruses can certainly be engineered to do certain things, e.g. deliver genetic packages, bacteriophages that target certain illneses, etc. But choosing whom to infect is not one of them.

[Methuselah]

It's also mere happenstance that the man thought to have introduced HIV to the Americas, was a promiscuous, black homosexual...Very similar events would have followed (minus much of the subsequent stigmatisation, perhaps) had he --- or perhaps even she --- been white and heterosexual...?

Edit: Such blatantly homophobic names as 'Gay Plague' and GRIDS (Gay-Related ImmunoDeficiency Syndrome) would have never seen the light of day!

Edited February 5, 2020 by General Cluster

[Gray-Wolf]

Sooooo, back in the age of M.A.D. if one of the main protagonists had accidentally fired missiles and , realising the implications let the other side know, would the public in the area targeted be warned?

If a virus had arisen (via zoonotic transfer) and a nation 'hushed it up' (in the early days) to avoid economic repercussions but then lost control of it and so wised up the rest of the world leaders as to the 'serious nature' of the infection would we be given the full facts or would we be kept in the dark to avoid spreading panic in the populace (& civil disorder possibly adding into the economic disruption?)

I'm not saying that 2019-nCoV is such but I'd like opinions on such

[fujita5]

3 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Sooooo, back in the age of M.A.D. if one of the main protagonists had accidentally fired missiles and , realising the implications let the other side know, would the public in the area targeted be warned?

If a virus had arisen (via zoonotic transfer) and a nation 'hushed it up' (in the early days) to avoid economic repercussions but then lost control of it and so wised up the rest of the world leaders as to the 'serious nature' of the infection would we be given the full facts or would we be kept in the dark to avoid spreading panic in the populace (& civil disorder possibly adding into the economic disruption?)

I'm not saying that 2019-nCoV is such but I'd like opinions on such

We are never going to be told everything, that's a given.  China are likely still MASSIVELY underreporting cases, mainly because they no longer have the resources to keep up with the spread.

In terms of our own government, they will of course downplay the risk to the UK population unless it becomes clear that the virus is taking hold and cannot be contained by existing methods.  They will then set up reporting lines like they did during the last pandemic (Swine flu in 2009/2010) to monitor the spread and issue relevant advice so people don't go to hospitals/surgeries and spread it amongst the most vulnerable groups i.e. the sick, the old and the very young.

Obviously if it does become a big issue for the UK and the death rate is as high as in China then they may take further action such as advising people to stay at home etc.  They will want to do everything in their power to avoid that situation as they will be fully aware of the panic and financial consequences that would cause, so it would be a very last resort.

[swebby]

9 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Sooooo, back in the age of M.A.D. if one of the main protagonists had accidentally fired missiles and , realising the implications let the other side know, would the public in the area targeted be warned?

If a virus had arisen (via zoonotic transfer) and a nation 'hushed it up' (in the early days) to avoid economic repercussions but then lost control of it and so wised up the rest of the world leaders as to the 'serious nature' of the infection would we be given the full facts or would we be kept in the dark to avoid spreading panic in the populace (& civil disorder possibly adding into the economic disruption?)

I'm not saying that 2019-nCoV is such but I'd like opinions on such

To be honest, "hushing it up" is entirely dependent on the idea that a virus can be contained and then "control lost". Now these ideas may make for great plot lines in films etc, but the reality is far removed.

An easily transmissible virus that pops up in a heavily populated area is never, ever, likely to be contained. 2019-nCoV, if infectious enough, will probably be testament to this. China have taken truly astonishing steps, and have done so very early in this outbreak. Quarantining a city of 11+million? Unprecedented, and that is from a Government that has a track record of secrecy and face saving.

The health sector and governments (sensible ones at least) know the score. Act quickly, be open (educate the public), work with others is the only rational approach.

There are exceptions, e.g. i would not be surprised if North Korea claimed it is virus free from an outbreak of something that has killed 90% of it's population.  Also, less commutable diseases like ebola, that pop up in sparsely populated  areas, would fit in with the keep schtum and snuff it out before anyone notices approach.

 

[Gray-Wolf]

I ask as the 'measures' we see China taking do not seem commensurate with an infection that is mild enough to be indistinguishable from a 'cold' or sniffle for 3/4's of those infected?

This coupled with the measures we see taken in other nations, from closed borders to advice not to travel to airlines stopping flying, all appear 'excessive' for such a minor inconvenience?

RNA virus mutate easily and rapidly so the strains of Coronavirus that bring us the common cold do so to the point we cannot form any real defense from it but those seasonal bugs, and their 'changes' never spark such a global response but all can lead to Pneumonia in susceptible cases so why such measures now?

 

The Pollution from China  has been a concern for me for decades with 'Global Dimming/regional dimming' has its place in Climate Change by masking impacts/altering ground conditions and the 'Asian Plume' was such a beastie!

As such the folk living under such dreadful conditions (over the period China was rapidly industrialising) WILL have had impacts on their lungs (as it does for us here in the UK if we live in 'Pollution Hotspots'?) leading to greater impacts from respiratory infections like Colds/Flu so you might expect such an ailment to show greater impact in those communities ravaged by urban pollution?

Wuhan was one such centre and so the stats we see flowing from there might be reflective of this 'weakening' of the general public on top of the viruses impacts on a person?

Should folk not exposed to inner city levels of pollution let out a sigh of relief knowing their lungs are cleaner/stronger (lacking the daily intake of such pollutants?) so secure in the knowledge they will not be as susceptible to the worst impacts we see from 2019 nCov? 

[Snipper]

it Is an unfortunate human trait to try and save face. In any event at what point do you press the button to raise  the alarm?

In this current world the button is being pressed on a regular basis usually by an ill informed media. Who do we believe. For me few. 
 

Edited February 5, 2020 by Snipper

[swebby]

3 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I ask as the 'measures' we see China taking do not seem commensurate with an infection that is mild enough to be indistinguishable from a 'cold' or sniffle for 3/4's of those infected?...............

I think it is the remaining 1 in 4 that is the issue.

The consequence of a quarter of a 1.4 billion population requiring acute medical care in short order is difficult to imagine. In that context, I think China's measures are  commensurate.

The trick is to slow the spread, lessen the impact on the care sector, keep the economy running.

[fujita5]

11 minutes ago, swebby said:

I think it is the remaining 1 in 4 that is the issue.

The consequence of a quarter of a 1.4 billion population requiring acute medical care in short order is difficult to imagine. In that context, I think China's measures are  commensurate.

The trick is to slow the spread, lessen the impact on the care sector, keep the economy running.

 

Now imagine worst case scenario - it gets into London and spreads via the tube network, work places etc.  London has a population of 8.9 million - let's say that 20% of the population catch the virus over a 3-month period and 25% of those need hospital treatment.  That's 8,900,000 x 20% x 25%.  You're looking at 1,178,000 infected and 445,000 people needing to be hospitalised.

Scale that up across the whole UK (66.4m) and you're looking at 13,280,000 people with the virus and 3,320,000 people who need to be treated and quarantined in hospital - and that's with only 20% of the population getting the virus.

Those numbers are truly frightening but it's based on 1 in 4 people becoming very ill.  The likelihood is that many cases have gone unnoticed in China due to mild symptoms or entirely asymptomatic cases so the number needing hospital treatment could be much lower.

But even with only 5% of the UK population catching it and 5% of those needing hospitalising, we'd still need to be able to treat and isolate something like 166,000 people.  Do we have the capacity in our health system even for that volume?

 

 

[Gael_Force]

54 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I ask as the 'measures' we see China taking do not seem commensurate with an infection that is mild enough to be indistinguishable from a 'cold' or sniffle for 3/4's of those infected?

This coupled with the measures we see taken in other nations, from closed borders to advice not to travel to airlines stopping flying, all appear 'excessive' for such a minor inconvenience?

Any new virus with 95% similarity to SARS would press many governmental buttons to take drastic early measures.... no vaccine and not knowing efficacy of existing anti-virals... plus their early cases may all have been very severe as it was only detected through hospitalisation of pneumonia patients. 

Did you see the case studies from Japan and elsewhere that show quite a few first tests are negative: only prolonged and worsening symptoms lead to more testing to get the positive result. On that basis, there's probably more cases worldwide than we think but it's just taken to be a cold or flu and life goes on.