Novel Coronavirus – China

[swebby]

2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

How the hell do you check for this? Here the USA's press briefing from yesterday

Press Briefing by Members of the President's Coronavirus Task Force | The White House

WWW.WHITEHOUSE.GOV

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James S. Brady Press Briefing Room 3:42 P.M. EST SECRETARY AZAR:  Well, good afternoon, everyone.  I’m Alex Azar, Secretary of Health and Human Services, and Chairman of the President’s Task...

in it we find;

"DR. REDFIELD:  Clearly, they’re all isolated and will be for the 14 days.  We have done virus isolation, but I want to be clear: The current tests that we developed at CDC is not — we’re not sure of the natural history of how the virus is isolated.  Can you isolate it one day, then three days later you can’t?  And we are seeing — in the cases that are in the hospital, we’ve seen people who had detectable virus, then they didn’t have detectable virus, and then three days later they had detectable virus." ????

 

Interesting read, think i caught some of this conference on one of the news channels in the wee hours as they were running with it in regards to the travel restrictions for entering the US.  Came across as a sensible affair, very much a "keep calm and carry on" approach. Probably helped by the omnipotent orange one not being in the room and ad libbing  graphs with sharpie markers........... 

As for the now you see it now you don't.  Not sure what to make of that, may mean there are stages where the virus is hard to detect but more likely means the test is not infallible. I believe PCR can be rather sensitive to handling errors of the samples.

[Guest Delete Me]

https://twitter.com/i/status/1223627696212783104

Edited February 1, 2020 by Delete Me

[Guest Delete Me]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

As numbers of infected rapidly increase how do the labs doing the testing keep up with demand?

Do we not risk getting to a point that we think the daily increases in suspected case numbers are reducing when all we are seeing are the testing labs being over capacity?

 

At the moment they can't keep up - testing is limited to 2,000 per day and the official figures need to be multiplied by 10x or 15x according to experts

[Guest Delete Me]

 

Edited February 1, 2020 by Delete Me

[Daniel*]

No wonder they’re racing to build hospitals 2 is not enough. Very worrying situation unfolding. 

 

[Spikecollie]

Coronavirus: How social apps tackle fake claims

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

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Platforms are increasing efforts to block false information as the outbreak spreads and fear grows.

 

[Styx]

Does anyone think this thing could mutate into a zombie virus? Anyway, quite a few people here in Hobart starting to wear face masks out and about.  I feel a bit sorry for Asian-Australians and Asian international students and tourists ( who make up a big part of the Tas economy ) who are getting the panic from some quarters fed back at them in a negative way. 

 

Pilot announces that man on plane may have coronavirus

WWW.ABC.NET.AU

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Passengers on a Jetstar flight from Melbourne to Hobart were left sitting on a tarmac for more than two hours after a man on the plane became ill, raising concerns he may have coronavirus.

 

[Spikecollie]

Not really freaked at all. What annoys/freaks me is the number of folks posting needlessly alarmist stuff.

Bon nuit!!!

[Gray-Wolf]

John Hopkins now switched to 'hourly' updates as numbers are rising so fast;

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

GISANDDATA.MAPS.ARCGIS.COM

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And to cap it all we have a H5N1 outbreak close to Wuhan.....;

Deadly bird flu outbreak among chickens in China, near coronavirus epicentre

WWW.SCMP.COM

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China reports new outbreak of deadly bird flu even as country struggles to contain spread of coronavirus.

Edit: H5N1 is not yet H2H but shows a death rate of 60% (compared to the 1% to3% currently touted for 2019-nCoV?)...... but then 2019-nCoV was not H2H initially.....

Edited February 1, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Methuselah]

45 minutes ago, Styx said:

Does anyone think this thing could mutate into a zombie virus? Anyway, quite a few people here in Hobart starting to wear face masks out and about.  I feel a bit sorry for Asian-Australians and Asian international students and tourists ( who make up a big part of the Tas economy ) who are getting the panic from some quarters fed back at them in a negative way. 

 

Pilot announces that man on plane may have coronavirus

WWW.ABC.NET.AU

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Passengers on a Jetstar flight from Melbourne to Hobart were left sitting on a tarmac for more than two hours after a man on the plane became ill, raising concerns he may have coronavirus.

 

I do hope not...but I will inform the relevant authorities, should I see any slow-moving, clumsy green people, tomorrow!

[Gray-Wolf]

11 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

I do hope not...but I will inform the relevant authorities, should I see any slow-moving, clumsy green people, tomorrow!

I'm on a 1 week 'countdown' Pete

I'll see what CNY does to the numbers and then decide how we are all looking with regard to 2019-nCoV..... and then we can decide how things are?

China may well be all over their news/data/stats but , once 'spreading like Wuhan' occurs in a 'developed nation' we will surely get to know both its 'R' number and whether it is deadly outside of China?

[Puddy Galore]

38 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

John Hopkins now switched to 'hourly' updates as numbers are rising so fast;

Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

GISANDDATA.MAPS.ARCGIS.COM

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And to cap it all we have a H5N1 outbreak close to Wuhan.....;

Deadly bird flu outbreak among chickens in China, near coronavirus epicentre

WWW.SCMP.COM

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China reports new outbreak of deadly bird flu even as country struggles to contain spread of coronavirus.

Edit: H5N1 is not yet H2H but shows a death rate of 60% (compared to the 1% to3% currently touted for 2019-nCoV?)...... but then 2019-nCoV was not H2H initially.....

Good grief!   Sorry (again) but surely questions are now being asked around the world in senior health organisations about good animal husbandry practice in China and whether they actually make the grade in that department.

[ciel]

Before we get too self- congratulatory....where did BSE originate?

Edited February 1, 2020 by ciel

[4wd]

17 minutes ago, ciel said:

Before we get too self- congratulatory....where did BSE originate?

Enforced Organophosphate warble fly treatment most likely

[ciel]

12 minutes ago, 4wd said:

Enforced Organophosphate warble fly treatment most likely

Still a 'husbandry' question though ?

[Snipper]

2 hours ago, Spikecollie said:

Not really freaked at all. What annoys/freaks me is the number of folks posting needlessly alarmist stuff.

Bon nuit!!!

Yes and some seem to take everything as gospel truth.  Others seem quite disappointed it is not worse than it already is.

[fujita5]

18 minutes ago, 4wd said:

Enforced Organophosphate warble fly treatment most likely

Apparently it was cows being fed ground up sheep bones in their feed. This allowed a sheep-based brain disease to enter the cows which may have mutated into something that could transfer to the human brain.

[Bristawl Si]

24 minutes ago, fujita5 said:

Apparently it was cows being fed ground up sheep bones in their feed. This allowed a sheep-based brain disease to enter the cows which may have mutated into something that could transfer to the human brain.

Yes. But not comparable to this strand of coronavirus, which emulates from Chinese practice of harbouring many many species of animals, next to each other in barbaric conditions, in markets, etc. Havent we been here before? Yep, SARs.

Number of deaths from BSE in 25 years, is about as many in 1 month from the current outbreak of coronavirus, i think. So, really comparing apples and pears. 

Moving on.

Latest news reports, with associated health experts opinion (no inverted commas needed for experts by the way, as they really are experts), is that just be hygienic as one would with flu, colds... and wash hands, sneeze into tissues, hankerchiefs.

Really nothing different than normal everyday life.

Would you don a facemask if there was a lot of flu about in your city/town? Nope! So, why would u now?

[BornFromTheVoid]

27 minutes ago, Bristle boy said:

Yes. But not comparable to this strand of coronavirus, which emulates from Chinese practice of harbouring many many species of animals, next to each other in barbaric conditions, in markets, etc. Havent we been here before? Yep, SARs.

Number of deaths from BSE in 25 years, is about as many in 1 month from the current outbreak of coronavirus, i think. So, really comparing apples and pears. 

Moving on.

Latest news reports, with associated health experts opinion (no inverted commas needed for experts by the way, as they really are experts), is that just be hygienic as one would with flu, colds... and wash hands, sneeze into tissues, hankerchiefs.

Really nothing different than normal everyday life.

Would you don a facemask if there was a lot of flu about in your city/town? Nope! So, why would u now?

If your comments are as clearly and obviously aligned with the expert consensus as you think, perhaps some sources would would help solidify the scientific basis of your opinions.

[lottiekent]

A Vietnamese American, who stopped at Wuhan airport for two hours on a layover has become the seventh diagnosed person in Vietnam:

Vietnamese American becomes 7th confirmed novel coronavirus infection in Vietnam | Tuoi Tre News -

TUOITRENEWS.VN

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He waited for a connecting flight in Wuhan, China for two hours

So who did he catch it from at the airport, and where have they gone on to? (obviously a rhetorical question as there’s no way to know) 

[Bristawl Si]

54 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

A Vietnamese American, who stopped at Wuhan airport for two hours on a layover has become the seventh diagnosed person in Vietnam:

Vietnamese American becomes 7th confirmed novel coronavirus infection in Vietnam | Tuoi Tre News -

TUOITRENEWS.VN

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He waited for a connecting flight in Wuhan, China for two hours

So who did he catch it from at the airport, and where have they gone on to? (obviously a rhetorical question as there’s no way to know) 

Who knows? When one catches a cold or even flu you dont really know. Educated guess would be someone you know or live with or from the workplace. It is how common diseases spread. I caught a dreadful cough from someone on the cruise in December, but for much of the 2 weeks one is confined  to the ship when at sea - so it just happens, even though one washes hands regularly  etc.

In other news a Chinese soldier from Shanghai is reportedly being treated for the new(ish) strain of coronavirus at Manor Hospital, Walsall. Source: Mailonline, so some on here may want to treat with caution.

Edited February 2, 2020 by Bristle boy

[Methuselah]

10 hours ago, ciel said:

Before we get too self- congratulatory....where did BSE originate?

A misinformed exercise in deregulation/cost-cutting methinks: it was always going to be cheaper feeding herbivores the mashed-up remains of their brothers and sisters...?

[ciel]

24 minutes ago, General Cluster said:

A misinformed exercise in deregulation/cost-cutting methinks: it was always going to be cheaper feeding herbivores the mashed-up remains of their brothers and sisters...?

Well, yes, and of course most will be shocked at the appalling cruelty of Asian live markets.

But the point I was attempting to make is, before rushing to pass judgement on other cultures, some consideration might be given to our ‘sophisticated’ attitude regarding animal welfare. 

 

Edited February 2, 2020 by ciel

[swebby]

11 hours ago, 4wd said:

Enforced Organophosphate warble fly treatment most likely

Linking organophosphates to a prion disease is a bit of a long shot to be honest. The wisdom of dipping livestock in organophosphates is a different matter however.......

Prion diseases are still poorly understood. For BSE, a pathway that involves feeding bone meal derived from scrapie infected animals seems plausible. My personal opinion is that with such poor understanding of how or even if  prion diseases are transmitted then we are still rummaging around in the dark to the extent that it could be that prions are not the actual issue, possible they could be a bio-marker of the respective diseases rather than the actual pathogen. There is some interesting recent work on prions and gut hormones/gut bacterial infections and similar work on dental infections that could be going somewhere.

[swebby]

12 hours ago, Snowycat said:

Good grief!   Sorry (again) but surely questions are now being asked around the world in senior health organisations about good animal husbandry practice in China and whether they actually make the grade in that department.

I posted earlier that the low pathogenic form of H5N1 exists in the wild (as does the highly pathogenic form for that matter) so sooner or later you will get outbreaks in poultry. One way to limit this would be to confine poultry so they have no contact with the wild, i.e abolish free range farming, seems to me that would be throwing baby out with the bath water?

Now i get there is some anger at animal welfare practices in the Chinese markets (justifiably so in my view) but if viruses are present in the wild, it is not the markets that will necessarily be the cause of the outbreaks. There are already suggestions that the market in Wuhan was not the actual source of the coronavirus outbreak, it may have facilitated it's spread, but it may not be the source. i.e. it was introduced to the market by a Human carrier.