Novel Coronavirus – China

[Gray-Wolf]

19 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

As a former NHS staff member, they will be pretty awesome with dealing with it all.  However, while they will deal with any emergency situations such as this (quarantine and everything), should there be a widespread outbreak,  there will be quite a negative knock on effect to routine hospital work, i.e. as beds are used and if wards need isolating or “locked down” then I am afraid elective/routine stuff will be postponed.  A bad normal flu winter or norovirus outbreak can have this effect - I have seen surgeons tearing their hair out when elective cases get cancelled as there are no beds.        

Problem comes when we hit peak infection? 

Even if staff end up with 'mild' versions will they not still be expected to self quarantine and so be a loss to their ward/hospital?

Unlike the flu we have no 'Jab' for staff so they'll face the same chances of catching it as the rest of us?

[lottiekent]

What I cannot understand is why they won’t elaborate on the cases further? Surely it would be useful to know if they are tourists or not? Because if they are not, where did they catch it?

[Gray-Wolf]

18 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

What I cannot understand is why they won’t elaborate on the cases further? Surely it would be useful to know if they are tourists or not? Because if they are not, where did they catch it?

There was a local report from York yesterday saying 3 folk had been taken in for testing & they were from China

Today we hear 2 members of a family tested positive for the virus so I reckon it is 2 of the 3 that we know were tested yesterday?

If so then we know we have had folk with the virus yomping around Yorkshire for a few days.....

[swebby]

27 minutes ago, lottiekent said:

What I cannot understand is why they won’t elaborate on the cases further? Surely it would be useful to know if they are tourists or not? Because if they are not, where did they catch it?

It is possible that the authorities do not yet have definite answers to any of this.  Also think it would be very unhelpful to id the cases as tourists etc. Confirming if they have traveled from China is fine, but purpose, nationality and especially ethnicity leads to which hunts.

6 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

There was a local report from York yesterday saying 3 folk had been taken in for testing & they were from China

Today we hear 2 members of a family tested positive for the virus so I reckon it is 2 of the 3 that we know were tested yesterday?

If so then we know we have had folk with the virus yomping around Yorkshire for a few days.....

That would imply a very quick turn around in the tests (remember, there is no quick assay for this) so i would advise against speculating on the who or where for the mo, leave it to the authorities to make an official statement.

[4wd]

It is those, I'm at a loss why media reporting today won't say the Hotel (a self catering apartment at StayCity near York Barbican in Paragon Street) or the fact they are Chinese Nationals presumably on holiday.
The trouble is the days before they would be mixing with hundreds of others of course

Edited January 31, 2020 by 4wd

[Gray-Wolf]

Thanks 4wd!

I'm glad that there's not a host of 'suspected cases' that we are not getting to hear about and that it is just the few we see reported by our MSM!!!

As for 'testing times? I'm sure we saw the first suspected cases in Scotland given the 'all clear' within 24hrs?

I'm sure it is a UK Lab that had been working on testing for SARS that rapidly modified that test once they had received the gnome on Jan 10th?

EDIT: Maybe they do not want to cause upset in the cities/towns they had visited 4wd?

Maybe they do not want to highlight the futility of trying to track down all possible 'contacts' over their stay in the UK?

Edited January 31, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[swebby]

20 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Thanks 4wd!

I'm glad that there's not a host of 'suspected cases' that we are not getting to hear about and that it is just the few we see reported by our MSM!!!

As for 'testing times? I'm sure we saw the first suspected cases in Scotland given the 'all clear' within 24hrs?

I'm sure it is a UK Lab that had been working on testing for SARS that rapidly modified that test once they had received the gnome on Jan 10th?

EDIT: Maybe they do not want to cause upset in the cities/towns they had visited 4wd?

Maybe they do not want to highlight the futility of trying to track down all possible 'contacts' over their stay in the UK?

Far as i know testing in England is being conducted at PHE Colindale in London. Scotland, Wales and NI may have alternative facilities.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/859086/Laboratory_investigations_algorithm_WN-CoV_v1_17_Jan.pdf

 

[Gray-Wolf]

Not all bad news;

 

[Gael_Force]

Study on the German cases, all from a contact with no apparent symptoms.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

Timeline graph.

PS, urge people to read all the text .. firstly, to reassure illness can be very short lived: ie, sick over weekend and well enough to go back to work on Monday but shedding heavy viral load sufficient to infect more co-workers not in contact with index case.

Edited January 31, 2020 by Gael_Force

[Methuselah]

The reticence being shown by the various, relevant authorities, as to letting us all know where suspected cases are, might be in anticipation of irrational responses by members of the public:

Back in the 1990s, at the peak of paedophile hysteria, several people egged/shouted abuse outside a paediatrician's home...having located her address, in the phone book;

Back whenever, a man named L. Nino (also gotten from a phone book) received dozens of poisonous phone-calls from people blaming him for climate change...

We might be coddled into self-delusion by modern technologies but, without any selection pressure, average IQs haven't risen by much--if they've risen at all...?

[swebby]

27 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

...EDIT: Maybe they do not want to cause upset in the cities/towns they had visited 4wd?

Maybe they do not want to highlight the futility of trying to track down all possible 'contacts' over their stay in the UK?

Not sure it is constructive from PHE's point of view to say they have been to X Y Z?  May panic populations in those towns - e.g. everyone in York that thinks they have had passing contact with a person of East Asian appearance contacting the authorities will cause more harm than good. More importantly maybe, it may lead to complacency in towns not listed.  They could have visited York and Manchester but if they caught a train, that could now be in Edinburgh, London or Penzance.........

The long and short of this now is that everyone should adopt sensible hygiene precautions and report any illness asap if they have concerns, especially if they would be classed as an at risk individual.

[fujita5]

30 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Study on the German cases, all from a contact with no apparent symptoms.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

Timeline graph.

PS, urge people to read all the text .. firstly, to reassure illness can be very short lived: ie, sick over weekend and well enough to go back to work on Monday but shedding heavy viral load sufficient to infect more co-workers not in contact with index case.

Very interesting, thanks.

So potentially a short, quite unpleasant illness with the ability to transmit several days before and after symptoms. No wonder it hammered China and spread so far around the world. It's likely in many more locations than we currently know so it's just a game of "wait and see" over the coming days/weeks to see if it's as deadly outside of China.

[Puddy Galore]

2 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Problem comes when we hit peak infection? 

Even if staff end up with 'mild' versions will they not still be expected to self quarantine and so be a loss to their ward/hospital?

Unlike the flu we have no 'Jab' for staff so they'll face the same chances of catching it as the rest of us?

Yes, that will be another element that will affect how the NHS operates on a day to day basis.   

[Yarmy]

Just got a text from my GP surgery requesting that if I'd recently flown from China and feel unwell, do not attend the surgery. Instead, contact reception by phone to ask for advice.

Is this a nationwide thing? Anyone else get something similar?

Edited January 31, 2020 by Yarmy

[Astral Goat Juice]

1 minute ago, Yarmy said:

Just got a text from my GP surgery requesting that if I'd recently flown from China and feel unwell, do not attend the surgery. Instead, contact reception by phone to ask for advice.

Is this a nationwide thing? Anyone else get something similar?

Not received anything, 

[swebby]

26 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Just got a text from my GP surgery requesting that if I'd recently flown from China and feel unwell, do not attend the surgery. Instead, contact reception by phone to ask for advice.

Is this a nationwide thing? Anyone else get something similar?

Believe i heard that would be the procedure on spotlight (bbc news south west) a couple of days ago.  The surgery (part of one of the Cornish trusts i think) said they had an isolation room ready (currently used as a staff meeting room until they get a case) and the patient will be talked to over the phone where possible.

[Snipper]

55 minutes ago, Yarmy said:

Just got a text from my GP surgery requesting that if I'd recently flown from China and feel unwell, do not attend the surgery. Instead, contact reception by phone to ask for advice.

Is this a nationwide thing? Anyone else get something similar?

I’d probably get a call saying go to China as we are fed up with you. Attend the surgery too often. Once or twice a year. 

[Gray-Wolf]

Found this interesting;

 "While Monolaurin is most widely used as an anti-viral agent, it
also has beneficial effects against pathogenic bacteria, yeasts
and fungi; other fatty acids such as caprylic and sorbic acids are
more effective against yeasts, but ineffective against viruses.
In a study performed at the CDC, which focused on Monolaurin tested
strains of viruses, Monolaurin was able to solubulize the
enveloped membrane of 14 human RNA and DNA viruses (3).
These include influenza, RSV, Rubeola, Newcastle’s, Coronavirus,
Herpes Simplex types 1 & 2, Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV)
and cytomegalovirus. (Monolaurin has no effect on
naked viruses, such as polio, encephalitis virus, coxsachie, or pox
viruses.) Monolaurin works by disintegrating the lipid
envelope coat of viruses. Data from these studies suggest that the
loss of virus infectivity is associated with the solubilization
of Monolaurin into the envelope. The virus absorbs the fatty acid
for its own replication, but winds up destroying its own protective
coat.  "

The substance , I believe, is found in milk and coconut milk (and probably lots of other stuff?)

[Snipper]

5 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Found this interesting;

 "While Monolaurin is most widely used as an anti-viral agent, it
also has beneficial effects against pathogenic bacteria, yeasts
and fungi; other fatty acids such as caprylic and sorbic acids are
more effective against yeasts, but ineffective against viruses.
In a study performed at the CDC, which focused on Monolaurin tested
strains of viruses, Monolaurin was able to solubulize the
enveloped membrane of 14 human RNA and DNA viruses (3).
These include influenza, RSV, Rubeola, Newcastle’s, Coronavirus,
Herpes Simplex types 1 & 2, Epstein-Barr Virus (EBV)
and cytomegalovirus. (Monolaurin has no effect on
naked viruses, such as polio, encephalitis virus, coxsachie, or pox
viruses.) Monolaurin works by disintegrating the lipid
envelope coat of viruses. Data from these studies suggest that the
loss of virus infectivity is associated with the solubilization
of Monolaurin into the envelope. The virus absorbs the fatty acid
for its own replication, but winds up destroying its own protective
coat.  "

The substance , I believe, is found in milk and coconut milk (and probably lots of other stuff?)

You got shares in a dairy and a Health food place?

[Snipper]

Coronavirus: How worried should we be?

Coronavirus: How worried should we be?

WWW.BBC.CO.UK

---

Hundreds of people people have been infected with a newly-discovered virus.

something to pick holes in?

[DAVID SNOW]

Watched footage of the coaches taking people to quarantine and noticed the driver looked smart, nice shirt and tie, question I have is he(other drivers) going into quarantine too?

Also the pilots, cabin crew?

[swebby]

Just now, DAVID SNOW said:

Watched footage of the coaches taking people to quarantine and noticed the driver looked smart, nice shirt and tie, question I have is he(other drivers) going into quarantine too?

Also the pilots, cabin crew?

This has been raised in a few places. Apparently air crew were going to quarantine all along and they knew this. I assume the drivers may also?  Plus, driving a coach full of people may be difficult if wearing a bio hazard suit? I trust they will be getting 14 days full pay plus the overtime? If it was Ryanair, they would probably class it as staff holiday leave and flag the cabin crew as sicknotes.......

[swebby]

4 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

Study on the German cases, all from a contact with no apparent symptoms.

https://www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NEJMc2001468

Timeline graph.

PS, urge people to read all the text .. firstly, to reassure illness can be very short lived: ie, sick over weekend and well enough to go back to work on Monday but shedding heavy viral load sufficient to infect more co-workers not in contact with index case.

 

4 hours ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Thanks 4wd!

I'm glad that there's not a host of 'suspected cases' that we are not getting to hear about and that it is just the few we see reported by our MSM!!!

As for 'testing times? I'm sure we saw the first suspected cases in Scotland given the 'all clear' within 24hrs?

I'm sure it is a UK Lab that had been working on testing for SARS that rapidly modified that test once they had received the gnome on Jan 10th?.....

 

Just had the chance to read the paper/communication posted by Gael Force and from that, it does indeed appear that there is a rapid assay in use, utilising PCR, very good news.

Preliminary report here

https://www.who.int/docs/default-source/coronaviruse/wuhan-virus-assay-v1991527e5122341d99287a1b17c111902.pdf

 

Edited January 31, 2020 by swebby

[Gael_Force]

More strange aspects to this virus and maybe why the Chinese scientist who was infected was using HIV drugs as therapy.

Quote

We are currently witnessing a major epidemic caused by the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019- nCoV). The evolution of 2019-nCoV remains elusive. We found 4 insertions in the spike glycoprotein (S) which are unique to the 2019-nCoV and are not present in other coronaviruses. Importantly, amino acid residues in all the 4 inserts have identity or similarity to those in the HIV-1 gp120 or HIV-1 Gag. Interestingly, despite the inserts being discontinuous on the primary amino acid sequence, 3D-modelling of the 2019-nCoV suggests that they converge to constitute the receptor binding site. The finding of 4 unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV, all of which have identity /similarity to amino acid residues in key structural proteins of HIV-1 is unlikely to be fortuitous in nature. This work provides yet unknown insights on 2019-nCoV and sheds light on the evolution and pathogenicity of this virus with important implications for diagnosis of this virus.

Uncanny similarity of unique inserts in the 2019-nCoV spike protein to HIV-1 gp120 and Gag

WWW.BIORXIV.ORG

---

bioRxiv - the preprint server for biology, operated by Cold Spring Harbor Laboratory, a research and educational institution

I've only read the conclusions but they seem to be suggesting this has been engineered ????

[nick sussex]

It’s noticeable that the authorities in both the UK and France seem to not be reporting where new cases are being reported .

Initially here in France they reported the locations , now they don’t .

Also absent from the debate is this is now yet another virus which has started from a market which slaughters animals on the premises .

How many more viruses will China export to the rest of the world before they start changing their attitudes to the obsession with warm meat .

Apparently on the menu to be slaughtered at said market were toads , wolf cubs and god knows what else !

Notwithstanding that as the Chinese economy has grown the latest must have as a status symbol is shark fin soup , effectively slaughtered for just the fin . Or even more ivory and rhino horn made into some medicine ! 

I know we’re supposed to be sympathetic to people’s customs but seriously is nothing sacred in China .

Of course I forgot Pandas ! That’s it !

 

Edited January 31, 2020 by nick sussex