Novel Coronavirus – China

[Gray-Wolf]

Hi Nick!

For a 'Communist' country they try and protect their Capitalism with a fervour more akin to the USA!

As far as the authorities are concerned I recall the Struggles W.H.O. had on getting data when H5N1 arose.....and then we had SARS and their behaviour through that outbreak!!!

I'm torn between recognising how slow they were in confirming they had issues but then the scale of them trying to 'Lock Down' within China give the impression that they are "Doing their best!".........either that or it is really ,really, bad and they are trying to save their own population and don't really care how their actions look to the wider audience......

I mean, a 1,000 bead isolation hospital up and running in 8 days??? that's just MAD!

They've been on with building a 2 lane , two span, bridge here for over 2 years and still have nearly a year to go!!!

Anyhoo's, back to the data flowing out of China?

The sheer numbers of cases in Wuhan (and the overstretch of health staff there?) must surely mean that 'record keeping' was strained and there also must be a physical limit to the number of tests they can do in 1 day? Maybe part of the issue is not a Chinese Govt. issue but just the sheer scale of the task of collecting reliable data?

[Gael_Force]

11 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I mean, a 1,000 bead isolation hospital up and running in 8 days??? that's just MAD!

Ready to go !!

Will be a basic quarantine facility ... note bars on windows and hatch for food, meds etc.

 

[swebby]

1 hour ago, Dreckly said:

seasonal flu death rate worldwide is up to 5 million cases with up to 650.000 deaths. Just to put a perspective on things.

May i ask for a source/link for these figures please?  Global case # is not something readily available even from the WHO.

 

[swebby]

2 hours ago, General Cluster said:

But those numbers imply a mortality rate of around 13%, which I think is rather high; I've known dozens of folks who've had flu, but not a single one of those folks has died from it...?

Must admit my initial read was that as well, which is a bonkers # for seasonal flu. It is worded however as "up" so is not total # of cases therefore not useful for calculating a mortality rate.

For ref

WHO seasonal flu monitoring

Overview

 

WHO | Influenza updates

WWW.WHO.INT

their flunet resource

WHO | FluNet

WWW.WHO.INT

 

And the CDC

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)

WWW.CDC.GOV

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A weekly influenza surveillance report prepared by the influenza division.

taken from the CDC report is this

"CDC estimates that so far this season there have been at least 19 million flu illnesses, 180,000 hospitalizations and 10,000 deaths from flu."

so a mortality rate of 0.05% in US for flu compared to 2% for 2019-nCoV in china (based on confirmed cases, possibly/hopefully drops to 0.5% if suspected cases of 75000 is near the mark).

One interesting aspect of flunet's weekly chart (nb - this is a chart of lab results from hospitalisations, not actual cases!)

http://apps.who.int/flumart/Default?ReportNo=6

 

Notice the drop off in weeks 3 and 4? Might be delays in compiling results, but I am wondering if this is a side effect of 2019-nCoV? That is, people adopting better hygiene practices plus travel restrictions in Asia means flu not spreading as much as normal?

 

 

Edited February 3, 2020 by swebby

[swebby]

21 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

Gilead Sciences Offers Experimental Drug for Coronavirus Treatments, Testing

The U.S. biotech firm has formalized agreement with China to conduct clinical trial of remdesivir.

Gilead Sciences Offers Experimental Drug for Coronavirus Treatments, Testing

WWW.WSJ.COM

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Gilead Sciences has provided doses of an experimental antiviral drug to doctors for the emergency treatment of a small number of patients infected by the new...

 

If this is found to be effective, and 2019-nCoV spreads globally, and is as contagious as suspected, and continues to cause the ratio of hospitilisations..... anyone with Gilead shares will do very nicely assuming remdesivir can be manufactured to meet demand.

Gilead Sciences listing - 

Gilead Sciences, Inc. Common Stock (GILD) Stock Quotes | Nasdaq

WWW.NASDAQ.COM

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Gilead Sciences, Inc. Common Stock (GILD) Stock Quotes - Nasdaq offers stock quotes & market activity data for US and global markets.

 

[Spikecollie]

43 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

Ready to go !!

Will be a basic quarantine facility ... note bars on windows and hatch for food, meds etc.

 

How many European countries could do that, though? Not that I'm endorsing the approach and I I know what China is like from first and second hand experience. 17 subway cleaners over about 100 metres (Hangzhou), the floors and ceilings were so clean they could be meal tables...

 

[Spikecollie]

9 minutes ago, swebby said:

If this is found to be effective, and 2019-nCoV spreads globally, and is as contagious as suspected, and continues to cause the ratio of hospitilisations..... anyone with Gilead shares will do very nicely assuming remdesivir can be manufactured to meet demand.

Gilead Sciences listing - 

Gilead Sciences, Inc. Common Stock (GILD) Stock Quotes | Nasdaq

WWW.NASDAQ.COM

---

Gilead Sciences, Inc. Common Stock (GILD) Stock Quotes - Nasdaq offers stock quotes & market activity data for US and global markets.

 

Drug companies always do nicely. We're on all generics here (all but essential). Nice because people can see the names of the molecules rather than a brand name. I'm quite "socialist" about drugs - they should be multinationalised by governments (i.e. all nations own them), funded by the previous profits of the pharmas and sold below cost (free to those in most need).

[Bristawl Si]

1 hour ago, Gray-Wolf said:

 

I mean, a 1,000 bead isolation hospital up and running in 8 days??? that's just MAD!

They've been on with building a 2 lane , two span, bridge here for over 2 years and still have nearly a year to go!!!

 

I suspect most of the labour involved in building the hospital didnt have much choice in the matter, to be brutally frank.

[Puddy Galore]

There is no doubt it is definitely an achievement to get this isolation hospital up and running in such a short space of time - credit where credit is due there.  Maybe I’m becoming more cynical as I age but does this type of herculean undertaking (not to mention the cost involved) suggest the problems with this virus are expected to get far worse or are they just thinking ahead before the next novel virus erupts

[Snipper]

1 hour ago, Spikecollie said:

, the floors and ceilings were so clean they could be meal tables...

 

I wonder why their food markets are such a cesspit. 

[summer blizzard]

53 minutes ago, Snowycat said:

There is no doubt it is definitely an achievement to get this isolation hospital up and running in such a short space of time - credit where credit is due there.  Maybe I’m becoming more cynical as I age but does this type of herculean undertaking (not to mention the cost involved) suggest the problems with this virus are expected to get far worse or are they just thinking ahead before the next novel virus erupts

China has 1.4bn people and even Whuhan province has a population the size of the UK so even if measures are taken to restrict the percentage of infections and deaths it's still a lot of people in the likes of China and India. 

[Spikecollie]

8 minutes ago, Snipper said:

I wonder why their food markets are such a cesspit. 

Because that's their culture. As I said before, the Chinese eat everything that moves and hence sell it at their markets. We may abhor it but as others have pointed out, we are not perfect in out animal husbandy efforts either. I might not like it but having visited and experienced the loveliness of the people, I have cultural ethical issue in condeming.

There are meat markets much just as bad closer to home. Fly-ridden heads of anmals on sale in Morocco and Tunisia. Just because you don't like it or eat it you can't  say it is wrong because that accords to your cultural values not other's.

There was a butcher's shop in Skipon which used to sell whole rabbits with plastic bags over their heads to keep the flies from eating their eyes out.

[DAVID SNOW]

On ‎31‎/‎01‎/‎2020 at 17:46, swebby said:

This has been raised in a few places. Apparently air crew were going to quarantine all along and they knew this. I assume the drivers may also?  Plus, driving a coach full of people may be difficult if wearing a bio hazard suit? I trust they will be getting 14 days full pay plus the overtime? If it was Ryanair, they would probably class it as staff holiday leave and flag the cabin crew as sicknotes.......

Well, I read today that the coach drivers ended up in a hotel bar! Don't blame them really. lol.

They were told risk to them was very low.

If accurate report?

[Gael_Force]

16 minutes ago, Spikecollie said:

Because that's their culture. As I said before, the Chinese eat everything that moves and hence sell it at their markets. We may abhor it but as others have pointed out, we are not perfect in out animal husbandy efforts either. I might not like it but having visited and experienced the loveliness of the people, I have cultural ethical issue in condeming.

There are meat markets much just as bad closer to home. Fly-ridden heads of anmals on sale in Morocco and Tunisia. Just because you don't like it or eat it you can't  say it is wrong because that accords to your cultural values not other's.

There was a butcher's shop in Skipon which used to sell whole rabbits with plastic bags over their heads to keep the flies from eating their eyes out.

I'm old enough to have had sheep's head broth on many occasions. I suppose Scrapie and BSE have put that one off menu for most.

[ciel]

2 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I'm old enough to have had sheep's head broth on many occasions. I suppose Scrapie and BSE have put that one off menu for most.

Lol. Ditto.

The head was cooked up in an ancient, rather scary-looking pressure cooker.

[Bristawl Si]

Nature Research has today published a report from Chinese virologists in Wuhan.

A pneumonia outbreak associated with a new coronavirus of probable bat origin.

Since the SARS outbreak 18 years ago, a large number of severe acute respiratory syndrome-related coronaviruses (SARSr-CoV) have been discovered in their natural reservoir host, bats1–4. Previous studies indicated that some of those bat SARSr-CoVs have the potential to infect humans5–7. Here we report the identification and characterization of a novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) which caused an epidemic of acute respiratory syndrome in humans in Wuhan, China. The epidemic, which started from 12 December 2019, has caused 2,050 laboratory-confirmed infections with 56 fatal cases by 26 January 2020. Full-length genome sequences were obtained from five patients at the early stage of the outbreak. They are almost identical to each other and share 79.5% sequence identify to SARS-CoV. Furthermore, it was found that 2019-nCoV is 96% identical at the whole-genome level to a bat coronavirus. The pairwise protein sequence analysis of seven conserved non-structural proteins show that this virus belongs to the species of SARSr-CoV. The 2019-nCoV virus was then isolated from the bronchoalveolar lavage fluid of a critically ill patient, which can be neutralized by sera from several patients. Importantly, we have confirmed that this novel CoV uses the same cell entry receptor, ACE2, as SARS-CoV.

Authors contributed equally: Peng Zhou, Xing-Lou Yang, Xian-Guang Wang

CAS Key Laboratory of Special Pathogens, Wuhan Institute of Virology, Center for Biosafety Mega-Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Wuhan, People’s Republic of China. Wuhan Jinyintan Hospital, Wuhan, China

[Gray-Wolf]

If I recall correctly the folk that did the groundwork for the hospital were queueing up to volunteer to help out?

The prefab facility probably owes a lot to SARS and the criticism they received from the rest of the world over their 'lax' actions in the early days of the outbreak? (and ditto with H5N1..... good job that never developed the H2H capability of 2019-nCoV!!)

As you know I am no fan of the 'wet markets' over there but I also think too many folk are too far removed from their food and where it comes from/is processed?

If you are going to kill something then you should be comfortable with the process if you are demanding to feed off it. (IMHO?)

My 'Ex' (from a quarter of a century ago!) was training (and then qualified) as an Environmental health officer and, though veggie herself, did the meat inspections in the slaughter house (there used to be many more than we have today!)

I got to see the process with pigs/cattle and sheep and though a very nasty business it was quick ,humane and efficient (well when there was an E.H.O. there it was!)

Only the sheep seemed clueless as to what was going on and would trot ,one after another into the hall......  the others sensed either the fear or smell of death and were less than keen leading to a lot of 'incontinence' which the cattle would slip on with some dislocating (or worse) their legs as they 'Bambi-ed' on the she-ite covered ramps/floors....

If you can't face the reality of it you should not be creating a demand for it! (again 'IMHO')

For most it is a trip to their local Supermarket and a plastic covered tray of what they fancy with no thought of where it comes from yet they act appalled at other peoples 'more visible' practices in butchery???

Rant over! 

[Dreckly]

3 hours ago, swebby said:

May i ask for a source/link for these figures please?  Global case # is not something readily available even from the WHO.

 

Coronavirus is spreading--but the flu is a greater threat to Americans

THEHILL.COM

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At least 8,200 people have died from the flu in the United States this season, including 54 children.

Flu Kills 646,000 People Worldwide Each Year: Study

WWW.MEDICINENET.COM

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Seasonal flu kills 291,000 to 646,000 people worldwide each year, according to a new estimate that's higher than the previous one of 250,000 to 500,000 deaths a year.

 

[Snipper]

50 minutes ago, Gael_Force said:

I'm old enough to have had sheep's head broth on many occasions. I suppose Scrapie and BSE have put that one off menu for most.

Been watching the Auschwitz programme. The recipe for black bread seem pretty unpleasant. 

amazing what the human body can survive 

 

[Puddy Galore]

28 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

 

If you can't face the reality of it you should not be creating a demand for it! (again 'IMHO')

For most it is a trip to their local Supermarket and a plastic covered tray of what they fancy with no thought of where it comes from yet they act appalled at other peoples 'more visible' practices in butchery???

Rant over! 

I can see that reasoning, lol.  I’m vegetarian myself and don’t do meat aisles in supermarkets.......however, my cats are certainly not vegetarian;  I’ve tried them on courgette bake but for some reason they don’t care for it  As part of my degree (gosh nearly 20-years ago now) one of my projects was BSE.  I think I chose that from a list of options given me because a friends father at the time was under suspicion of possibly being a BSE victim.  As it turns out they diagnosed him with lewy body dementia.  As part of my research I delved into slaughterhouse reports and any possibility of eating meat again was well and truly quashed.    

[Snipper]

44 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Rant over! 

If you want to eat it be prepared to prepare it.  Whether it is an animal or a vegetable grown on a pile of s**t. 

Edited February 3, 2020 by Snipper

[Dreckly]

GISAID - Global cases BetaCoV

WWW.GISAID.ORG

might be of interest

Edited February 3, 2020 by Dreckly
added image

[Spikecollie]

2 hours ago, Gael_Force said:

I'm old enough to have had sheep's head broth on many occasions. I suppose Scrapie and BSE have put that one off menu for most.

Tete (can't do the accent on the "a") a veau is still a delicacy here - being nearly veggie, I have tried to avoid it but no doubt one day I will succumb. The culture in a lot of countries, particularly rural areas, is to waste nothing, therefore eat and use the whole of the animal. My Mum used to do pig's trotters...

[Spikecollie]

1 hour ago, Snipper said:

If you want to eat it be prepared to prepare it.  Whether it is an animal or a vegetable grown on a pile of s**t. 

Sadly, people are used to meat in nice plastic containers. I have eaten many a glorious Ligurian rabbit stew (Jamie recipe.) prepared from my previous dog Spike's catches. My father taught me how to skin and prepare. Over here we have shot and eaten ragondin - Coypu - kept us and Mylo, especially, going for months. Veggie prep. is a technique too - you have to be in touch with your food...

[Snipper]

Meanwhile back at the topic.