Novel Coronavirus – China

[Astral Goat Juice]

It appears the two suspected cases were originally from York, but have been moved to Newcastle NHS to be treated. God speed with the pair of them, 

[Gray-Wolf]

As far as the country grinding to a halt over 'peak infection'?

I would think 'absenteeism' would leave more positions empty than the virus?

Who would risk their kids/elderly relatives if it does start taking the vulnerable here in the UK?

Unlike the Flu we have zero protection from 2019-nCov....be it from previous infection or vaccines.... so will the folk most at risk of contracting it 'risk' their families?

[Gray-Wolf]

4 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

It appears the two suspected cases were originally from York, but have been moved to Newcastle NHS to be treated. God speed with the pair of them, 

Does that mean they are part of the threesome of Chineses Nationals we saw quarantined yesterday after one fell ill?

They arrived in the UK a number of days ago and seem to have done the rounds from Leeds thru York.....hmmmm

[Snipper]

6 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

It appears the two suspected cases were originally from York, but have been moved to Newcastle NHS to be treated. God speed with the pair of them, 

Well Boris has always said he wants to do special things for the north. 

[Astral Goat Juice]

2 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

Does that mean they are part of the threesome of Chineses Nationals we saw quarantined yesterday after one fell ill?

They arrived in the UK a number of days ago and seem to have done the rounds from Leeds thru York.....hmmmm

I would assume so, but it's always dangerous to assume. So until we have more credible facts, I cannot say. Lets hope the Health Team in charge can do a good job at contact tracing.

1 minute ago, Snipper said:

Well Boris has always said he wants to do special things for the north. 

[Gray-Wolf]

6 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

I would assume so, but it's always dangerous to assume. So until we have more credible facts, I cannot say. Lets hope the Health Team in charge can do a good job at contact tracing.

I mention it to highlight just that point AGJ, if they are 'tourists' then they will have have done 'touristy' things....and the streets of York can be quite busy! But then they have arrived at a UK Airport and travelled to their destination so just how do you track down ALL who might have been infected?

I've been saying from early on that we'd better just accept that we WILL all see the virus (until a vaccine is perfected?) and so take our chances in the hope it has milded as it has mutated?

Edited January 31, 2020 by Gray-Wolf

[Astral Goat Juice]

Just now, Gray-Wolf said:

I mention it to highlight just that point AGJ, if they are 'tourists' then they will have have done 'touristy' things....and the streets of York can be quite busy! But then they have arrived at a UK Airport and travelled to their destination so just how do you track down ALL who might have infected?

I've been saying from early on that we'd better just accept that we WILL all see the virus (until a vaccine is perfected?) and so take our chances in the hope it has milded as it has mutated?

I don't think it was ever a question of IF we would see the virus in the UK, but certainly a WHEN. I know that the sequencing of the genome in the United States has show zero mutations crossing from China, so that's good news at least. 

The authorities will now have a large job on hand to trace and quarantine potential infectious people. 

[BornFromTheVoid]

A few posts removed. If you can't debate in at least a vaguely respectful manner, just stay out of the thread.

[Snipper]

Do we call this the Hauwei early bonus?

[Gray-Wolf]

5 minutes ago, BornFromTheVoid said:

A few posts removed. If you can't debate in at least a vaguely respectful manner, just stay out of the thread.

And folk think those kind of folk will keep their cool and not go 'Bat Soup Crazy' once we see widespread infection?

This is why I say you have more to fear from such folk than from the virus itself!

[Methuselah]

6 minutes ago, Snipper said:

Do we call this the Hauwei early bonus?

It's part of the Northern Powerhouse project...Hauwei the lads!

[Beverley Lass]

Italy declares national state of emergency

 

Italy has declared a state of emergency after its first two confirmed cases of coronavirus, according to a government source.

 

The Italian Government on Friday declared a state of emergency to speed up the fight against the Coronavirus and prevent it from spreading.

The move came a day after it was announced that Italy had registered its first two cases of the virus: a tourist couple from China.

The state of emergency is often declared in Italy in reaction to earthquakes, heavy storms and, as occurred recently in Venice, floods.

This is because it provides a fast-track procedure for raising funds and other resources such as civil protection for setting up shelters.

Oscar Schneider

The Brussels Times

Edited January 31, 2020 by Beverley Lass

[Snipper]

China is a sleeping lion. Let her sleep, for when she wakes, she will shake the world.~Napoleon

Bet he wasn’t thinking of a virus.  

[Gray-Wolf]

8 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

I don't think it was ever a question of IF we would see the virus in the UK, but certainly a WHEN. I know that the sequencing of the genome in the United States has show zero mutations crossing from China, so that's good news at least. 

The authorities will now have a large job on hand to trace and quarantine potential infectious people. 

I think there are now 7 types of Coronavirus we humans can get (2 of which are the common cold?)

Should we expect any 'recombination' to occur if the host has 2 or more coronavirus strains at the same time?

[Gael_Force]

Reading today that Italian authorities delayed confirmation to get their ducks in a row regard contact tracing ( a Chinese tour party). It's sensible to do, IMO, as some will scatter at thought of imposed quarantine. Containment will only work if ALL contacts are monitored ... an impossible task in a fast moving global environment. 

Edited January 31, 2020 by Gael_Force

[Azazel]

If you take the number of cases in the last seven days and then factor in the number of deaths in the last seven days, the mortality rate works out at closer to 30 percent.

 

Yikes.

[swebby]

5 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I think there are now 7 types of Coronavirus we humans can get (2 of which are the common cold?)

Should we expect any 'recombination' to occur if the host has 2 or more coronavirus strains at the same time?

"Expect" may be over stating it but it is always a possibility. May also depend on how closely related they are - family portrait below.

Phylogenetic Analysis Shows Novel Wuhan Coronavirus Clusters with SARS - EcoHealth Alliance

WWW.ECOHEALTHALLIANCE.ORG

---

Genetic analysis shows a coronavirus causing a cluster of pneumonia cases in Wuhan, China is closely related to SARS, which spread globally in 2003.

 

[Astral Goat Juice]

8 minutes ago, Gray-Wolf said:

I think there are now 7 types of Coronavirus we humans can get (2 of which are the common cold?)

Should we expect any 'recombination' to occur if the host has 2 or more coronavirus strains at the same time?

As I understand the Coronavirus family is made up of RNA and not DNA. I believe recombination would only occur in a DNA structured virus. 

You are correct, the common cold is part of the COVs family. 

[Astral Goat Juice]

9 minutes ago, Azazel said:

If you take the number of cases in the last seven days and then factor in the number of deaths in the last seven days, the mortality rate works out at closer to 30 percent.

 

Yikes.

We calculated at one point a MR of 69% but I will stress it's fruitless at this time to do so as the data is scarce and wholly inaccurate. 

[Gray-Wolf]

So we overtook SARS 8,000 cases then? It took SARS over 3 months to amass its tally, this has done so in just over a week from sub 100 cases to today's numbers

Folk still thinking this can be contained might look at how tightly that outbreak was monitored in its first few weeks after 'escaping' China and how every contact was tracked down tested and isolated if necessary.

Have we seen such this time around?

if 'R' = 3 then we should expect the numbers in China to start to sky rocket over the coming week prior to any CNY 'spike'

 

[swebby]

29 minutes ago, Astral Goat Juice said:

I don't think it was ever a question of IF we would see the virus in the UK, but certainly a WHEN. I know that the sequencing of the genome in the United States has show zero mutations crossing from China, so that's good news at least. 

The authorities will now have a large job on hand to trace and quarantine potential infectious people. 

Possibly but i believe the US cases were early in the spread, when China only had <500 cases so that does need to be considered.  We are now at ca 10,000 cases in China, more infected hosts, greater the chance of new strains appearing.

[Gael_Force]

6 minutes ago, Azazel said:

If you take the number of cases in the last seven days and then factor in the number of deaths in the last seven days, the mortality rate works out at closer to 30 percent.

 

Yikes.

The CFR is high for known hospitalised cases: what we do not know is how many mild cases are going unrecorded. True figures will only become available as time goes on and it can be calculated in a more transparent location.

[Astral Goat Juice]

1 minute ago, Gray-Wolf said:

So we overtook SARS 8,000 cases then? It took SARS over 3 months to amass its tally, this has done so in just over a week from sub 100 cases to today's numbers

Folk still thinking this can be contained might look at how tightly that outbreak was monitored in its first few weeks after 'escaping' China and how every contact was tracked down tested and isolated if necessary.

Have we seen such this time around?

if 'R' = 3 then we should expect the numbers in China to start to sky rocket over the coming week prior to any CNY 'spike'

 

Yep, it's highly infectious, and I would expect to see those numbers greatly increase over the coming 10 days or so. There will come a point where the numbers will begin to fall, but for now they will only increase around the world. 

I would expect the r0 to be around 3.8-4.6. 

[Puddy Galore]

As a former NHS staff member, they will be pretty awesome with dealing with it all.  However, while they will deal with any emergency situations such as this (quarantine and everything), should there be a widespread outbreak,  there will be quite a negative knock on effect to routine hospital work, i.e. as beds are used and if wards need isolating or “locked down” then I am afraid elective/routine stuff will be postponed.  A bad normal flu winter or norovirus outbreak can have this effect - I have seen surgeons tearing their hair out when elective cases get cancelled as there are no beds.        

[Puddy Galore]

As a former NHS staff member, they will be pretty awesome with dealing with it all.  However, while they will deal with any emergency situations such as this (quarantine and everything), should there be a widespread outbreak,  there will be quite a negative knock on effect to routine hospital work, i.e. as beds are used and if wards need isolating or “locked down” then I am afraid elective/routine stuff will be postponed.  A bad normal flu winter or norovirus outbreak can have this effect - I have seen surgeons tearing their hair out when elective cases get cancelled as there are no beds.